ATL: CHANTAL - Post-Tropical

[SapphireSea]

nothing on the euro at all.. though the ridge quite strong..

Seems to erode pretty heavy, although still looks like steering will collapse sooner rather than later possibly.

it erodes then builds back quick like the rest of the models...

see that 591 line at 120hr that would block any north motion of a TC there.. only west motion.

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/ECMWF ... b&hour=144

I do see that. I was still stuck on the 72hour - 96 hour mark. Guess a GFS type track through N.Cen Florida could be assumed if there was a storm of sufficient depth for 500mb steering. According to the model of course.

[meriland23]

00z EURO 120 hrs



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[meriland23]

00z EURO 168 hrs



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[meriland23]

00z EURO 192 hrs



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[HouTXmetro]

I'm confused... Euro doesn't show anything but the Big High. Where is Chantal?

[meriland23]

I'm confused... Euro doesn't show anything but the Big High. Where is Chantal?

**PHANTOM** Chantal..

[Aric Dunn]

00z gfs members.. pretty much same as before.

[Blinhart]

So if I'm reading those correctly, the ridge builds in and continues building well into Texas. So I guess it will all depend on the speed of Chantal and her strength on where she will end up going. I can see it going anywhere from the Florida/Georgia/South Carolina area to central Florida for the first landfall, and depending on the direction and speed she is going she might make it back to the Gulf of Mexico and then 2nd landfall could be anywhere from Brownsville to Pensacola.

In other words I am predicting that it all depends on her speed and strength through the Caribbean and the Bahamas on where she will make landfall and then what will happen from there will depend on a lot of other factors. Could be an interesting next week to two weeks just for Chantal, then who knows what will be brewing behind her.

[chaser1]

nothing on the euro at all.. though the ridge quite strong..

Looking at the present shear most evident on the water vapor loop, my guess is that the reason that the Euro doesnt see Chantal, is perhaps because the core is as small and fragile as it is. If the shear does not abate, than we may well see even an open wave approaching the Greater Antilles. Thats not to say that we might not once again see eventual reorganization East of Florida, but Chantal might be "knock knock knocking on heaven's door" soon. Of course, that may well change up a few things and we might find ourselves following the BAMS model by this time tomorrow?

[Cyclenall]

Could be an interesting next week to two weeks just for Chantal, then who knows what will be brewing behind her.

Chantal won't be around in two weeks...that stall would have to be record breaking for that one. I agree for the whole basin.

If the shear does not abate, than we may well see even an open wave approaching the Greater Antilles.

Actually there's rumors flying that this is an open wave right now. Just look at the latest OSCAT. I'm going to pull a wxman57 here and say its an open wave currently. I'm usually the bullish one but I can't lie, it looks terrible right now and wave like .

[supercane4867]

Latest OSCAT



Time to say R.I.P？

[Aric Dunn]

Could be an interesting next week to two weeks just for Chantal, then who knows what will be brewing behind her.

Chantal won't be around in two weeks...that stall would have to be record breaking for that one. I agree for the whole basin.

If the shear does not abate, than we may well see even an open wave approaching the Greater Antilles.

Actually there's rumors flying that this is an open wave right now. Just look at the latest OSCAT. I'm going to pull a wxman57 here and say its an open wave currently. I'm usually the bullish one but I can't lie, it looks terrible right now and wave like .

Though radar is looking up above the surface atm later when it gets nearly on top the radar we will know... and then we will have a enough surface obs..

[Hurricane Alexis]

Looks like it's developing thunderstorms over the center or am i wrong?

[Aric Dunn]

Latest OSCAT

[img]http://i.imgur.com/jO8Ms6z.png[/ig]

Time to say R.I.P？

I highly doubt its an open wave. The forward motion can be throwing it off as we saw earlier when recon there and closed it off even though oscat saw an open wave..

[Aric Dunn]

Looks like it's developing thunderstorms over the center or am i wrong?

its trying ... definitely more convection on the north side than earlier

[Hurricane Alexis]

This reminds me of last year's Ernesto. It looked like an open wave when all the time it wasn't.

[hurricaneCW]

It wouldn't be that surprising for it to become a wave, it's still moving way too fast to organize and develop a stronger closed circulation and the shear is likely to start to increase soon. I'm interested to see what might happen if she gets into the Bahamas still mostly intact.

The environment is still behaving like mid July despite the heavy tropical wave action. One of the biggest reasons we appear to be starting early is the MJO which is leading to more rising air as well as enhancing African wave activity.

If it weren't for the MJO, things would seem more typical of July.

[SapphireSea]

Looking at radar images from barbados, if that is the real center. It does look like a sharp wave now. But the fact that the east to ENE winds south of the harder NE and ENE and SE wind axis are very very light in the OSCAT pass, its possible that the deep easterly flow is masking the true west surface winds occuring there. But, looking at the radar from barbados, I also don't really see a westward stream of clouds occuring anymore, I thought it was clear, but it was convection fluctuation that created an illusion.

[Hurricane Alexis]

What a thorough discussion by the Miami NWS.

WEATHER DURING THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK OF TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL. NHC IS FORECASTING
CHANTAL TO TURN NW-N AFTER CROSSING HISPANIOLA, AS A BREAK IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OCCURS. THIS WOULD TAKE CHANTAL TO OUR EAST ACROSS
THE BAHAMAS FRIDAY-SATURDAY. GUIDANCE IS IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT ON
THIS GENERAL TRACK. HOWEVER, THINGS CAN CHANGE SO THIS WILL OF
COURSE CONTINUE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY. WHAT IS INTERESTING IS WHAT
THE LATEST GFS 09.00Z RUN SHOWS EARLY NEXT WEEK. IT BUILDS A RIDGE
BACK IN NORTH OF CHANTAL SUN-TUE, FORCING THE CYCLONE ON A WESTWARD
COURSE WITH EVEN A SLIGHT BEND SW AND ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA.
NOW, THIS IS JUST ONE MODEL RUN, BUT THIS JUST SHOWS THAT EVERYONE
IN FLORIDA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS ON
CHANTAL OVER THE COMING DAYS. ANOTHER POSSIBILITY IS FOR CHANTAL
TO WEAKEN ALL TOGETHER WHILE CROSSING HISPANIOLA, THOUGH THIS IS
NOT CURRENTLY FORECAST. ECMWF CONTINUES TO SHOW CHANTAL AS AN OPEN
WAVE MOVING INTO THE BAHAMAS, BUT THIS MODEL DIDN`T INITIALIZE
CHANTAL WELL.

AND WHILE WE ARE CLOSELY MONITORING CHANTAL INTO THIS WEEKEND,
ANOTHER TROPICAL SYSTEM COULD BE DEVELOPING OVER THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC AS PER THE GFS. ACTIVE TIMES AHEAD.

[Kingarabian]

Maybe that's why the Euro isn't seeing it. Ernesto 2.0.