Global model runs discussion

[ninel conde]

im not sure there is any comparison to 2005. this season we have had 3 weak storms and it looks like chantal is coming apart. in 2005 at this time i think dennis was headed to cat4 and emily formed on july 11 and made it to a cat5. right now things are generally hostile unlike 2005. there is another storm that is supposed to form behind chantal, lets see if it struggles and dies.

[tolakram]

im not sure there is any comparison to 2005. this season we have had 3 weak storms and it looks like chantal is coming apart. in 2005 at this time i think dennis was headed to cat4 and emily formed on july 11 and made it to a cat5. right now things are generally hostile unlike 2005. there is another storm that is supposed to form behind chantal, lets see if it struggles and dies.

How about we just stop comparing to 2005?

What was interesting in 2005 was the lack of Cape Verde storms. I think a strong high pressure ridge means fast moving waves that struggle to develop. So, in fact, the performance of these waves in the central Atlantic really means nothing as far as how bad a season it might be.

2005 map, for reference: http://imageshack.us/a/img827/3993/mke1.png

[gatorcane]

In my many many years of tracking Cyclones,I have never seen this kind of pattern in July that looks like a late August/early September one.

Me neither. It looks like August or September with the GFS. The 06Z continues to develop the wave about to roll off of Africa and sends it towards the NE Leewards then Bahamas and SE U.S. after that.

I can't imagine what August and September might actually look like!

[Ntxw]

Don't know about 2005 but this is pretty MJO driven. First it was the EPAC in the higher phases and now that it hits IO its the Atlantic. It's about a 30-45 day cycle that began mid June with the wave. I don't know if the GFS will verify but one more system seems plausible before the MJO heads away and we repeat into the quieter phases (about to mid August).

[Ptarmigan]

im not sure there is any comparison to 2005. this season we have had 3 weak storms and it looks like chantal is coming apart. in 2005 at this time i think dennis was headed to cat4 and emily formed on july 11 and made it to a cat5. right now things are generally hostile unlike 2005. there is another storm that is supposed to form behind chantal, lets see if it struggles and dies.

2005 is a season on its own class. The closest analog I can think of for 2005 is 1933.

How about we just stop comparing to 2005?

What was interesting in 2005 was the lack of Cape Verde storms. I think a strong high pressure ridge means fast moving waves that struggle to develop. So, in fact, the performance of these waves in the central Atlantic really means nothing as far as how bad a season it might be.

2005 map, for reference: http://imageshack.us/a/img827/3993/mke1.png

I noticed that too with 2005. More storms formed closer to land, mainly Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico. I notice seasons with more Cape Verde storms have less number of storms. I am guessing Cape Verde storms take up more energy than storms that form closer to land.

1950, 1966, 1995, 1998, 1999, 2004, 2008, and 2010 were more favorable for Cape Verde storms. They had high ACE despite less number of storms. ACE/Storm in 2005 was average, while those seasons had higher ACE/Storm.

[cycloneye]

The NCEP site is having problems as the 12z run is not out yet.

[ninel conde]

i saw the 12z gfs and the possible dorian is almost gone.

[cycloneye]

The Global Hazards update has TC formation shade in MDR for week one.



http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... h_full.png

[cycloneye]

They are deaing with the NCEP problem.

SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE
NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS COLLEGE PARK MD
1819Z TUE JUL 09 2013

NCEP IS AWARE THAT OUR WEB SERVICES AND FTP SERVERS ARE HAVING
CONNECTIVITY ISSUES AT THE CURRENT TIME. WE APOLOGIZE FOR ANY
INCONVENIENCE THIS MAY CAUSE. WE ARE WORKING ON THE PROBLEM AND
WE WILL INFORM CUSTOMERS ONCE THE PROBLEM IS RESOLVED.

[Cyclenall]

Don't know about 2005 but this is pretty MJO driven. First it was the EPAC in the higher phases and now that it hits IO its the Atlantic. It's about a 30-45 day cycle that began mid June with the wave. I don't know if the GFS will verify but one more system seems plausible before the MJO heads away and we repeat into the quieter phases (about to mid August).

What's funny is it seems like the MJO is always directing the level of activity a basin experiences now, what about in 2005...not much MJO talk there. In fact it seems like most of how 2005 unfolded is still somewhat cracked to me because products that I want to compare other seasons to are not available or I haven't found them yet ("Wind Shear Map database" in Google gives you nothing). I'll have to read this for MJO effects on the 2005 season. Also, if Phase 2 goes into the circle, that would keep the MJO influence here and make July super interesting? I don't know much about that but is it looking to go into Phase 3 or the circle?

"We don't fully understand why the 2005 hurricane season, with 28 named storms, was more than twice as active as a typical season." - Chris Hebert of Impact Weather Ditto.

[Rgv20]

The KMA Model is forecasting Below Normal Sea Level Pressure for almost all of the Tropical Atlantic for late July and most of August. The 500mb pattern is rather interesting as well as it would suggest no Tropical Cyclone Re-curvatures to the open Atlantic....The Northern Gulf and Florida would be target practice out there!

Sea Level Pressure Anomaly


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500mb Height Anomaly


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[cycloneye]

The KMA Model is forecasting Below Normal Sea Level Pressure for almost all of the Tropical Atlantic for late July and most of August. The 500mb pattern is rather interesting as well as it would suggest no Tropical Cyclone Re-curvatures to the open Atlantic....The Northern Gulf and Florida would be target practice out there!

Sea Level Pressure Anomaly
http://img594.imageshack.us/img594/6199/m2s.gif

Uploaded with ImageShack.us


500mb Height Anomaly
http://img24.imageshack.us/img24/9194/qp3.gif

Uploaded with ImageShack.us

First time I see this model. Is it a good one?

[Ntxw]

What's funny is it seems like the MJO is always directing the level of activity a basin experiences now, what about in 2005...not much MJO talk there. In fact it seems like most of how 2005 unfolded is still somewhat cracked to me because products that I want to compare other seasons to are not available or I haven't found them yet ("Wind Shear Map database" in Google gives you nothing). I'll have to read this for MJO effects on the 2005 season. Also, if Phase 2 goes into the circle, that would keep the MJO influence here and make July super interesting? I don't know much about that but is it looking to go into Phase 3 or the circle?

"We don't fully understand why the 2005 hurricane season, with 28 named storms, was more than twice as active as a typical season." - Chris Hebert of Impact Weather Ditto.

Well the MJO doesn't always foretell activity, except in the cases when you get a strong MJO wave (one that loops through most of the phases at a decent pace like this one) then it usually controls the weather worldwide with good lift along and strong subsidence on the opposite sides. It's not always clear cut and forecasting is a headache but this one is easy due to its strength so you can tell where it gets active and when.

Most of the time during the summer months the MJO stays in or near the dead circle which is much less defined in terms of when activity is likely or not, since we've had good MJO signals so far this year it helps to see it. MJO was much weaker in 2005 for most of the season, so I don't think it really controlled that one anomaly for sure from something else.

[Rgv20]

First time I see this model. Is it a good one?

I know Joe Bastardi used it quite often, don't no about know since I'm no longer a subscriber. Of all the long range models I believe its the only one calling for below normal Sea Level pressure in the Atlantic...We will see how it verifies.

[cycloneye]

The models don't have anything of significance in the short/medium range so we may have to wait a while for the next development.

[ColdFusion]

The models don't have anything of significance in the short/medium range so we may have to wait a while for the next development.

And less than 48 hours ago, we were all buying our tickets for the african wave train...funny how quickly things can change.

[BigB0882]

The models don't have anything of significance in the short/medium range so we may have to wait a while for the next development.

And less than 48 hours ago, we were all buying our tickets for the african wave train...funny how quickly things can change.

And a week ago people were already posting season cancel comments. LOL!

[ROCK]

that wave out there now looks rather good except for the SAL. Give it time, but I think it might be our next named storm but not as soon Chantal was....I expect some circle colors in a few days though...

[SapphireSea]

The ITCZ is being displaced way too far south for the wavetrain to help generate convection on the waves. This is also why the SAL is so prelevant at this point. Not that this is season cancel, not by a longshot. The powerful ridge and high pressures down in the atlantic is going to have to weaken some for the ITCZ to migrate to it's prime spot. Notice that when Chantel was getting going, the ITCZ was unusually far north and helped her get developed in the short term.

[ROCK]

The ITCZ is being displaced way too far south for the wavetrain to help generate convection on the waves. This is also why the SAL is so prelevant at this point. Not that this is season cancel, not by a longshot. The powerful ridge and high pressures down in the atlantic is going to have to weaken some for the ITCZ to migrate to it's prime spot. Notice that when Chantel was getting going, the ITCZ was unusually far north and helped her get developed in the short term.

I always thought farther south meant better rotation? understand what you are saying but this wave does have a rather large moisture pouch.....it will come across the pond and maybe do something once in the carib...