ATL: CHANTAL - Post-Tropical

[Evil Jeremy]

[AdamFirst]

Tropical Storm Chantal Models remind me of Hurricane Jeanne back in 2004 because most of the models are now showing a turn back to Florida and now are showing less time over of the island of Hispaniola. Not a forecast just an opinion.

its similiar but we dont see the big stall we had with jeanne

Frances was the storm that stalled...Jeanne raked Hispaniola with major flooding then exited the island heading north...then it hit the Bermuda high and did that infamous loop from east to west and headed toward south-central FL just like Frances.

[gatorcane]

The 06Z GFDL brings the system into the Northern Bahamas then bends it W towards the East Coast of Central Florida, deepening it:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

[chris_fit]

Hmmmm pressure back up to 1010 according to latest recon pass? Am I missing something?

[Airboy]

Hmmmm pressure back up to 1010 according to latest recon pass? Am I missing something?

I also saw that, a lot up and downs with this system

[gatorcane]

I am very surprised that the NHC Track is not showing the turn to Florida on days 4 and 5 on the model runs. The GFS is still showing this and most of the models are agreement that this turn will occur at some point. I am waiting to see what the NHC does with the track at 11am. Not a forecast just an opinion.

They started to show it with the 5am advisory. They say in the discussion:

A SLIGHT LEFT TURN IS PREDICTED BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS THE MODELS SHOW A RIDGE REBUILDING TO THE
NORTHEAST OF CHANTAL BY THAT TIME.

I think he means more of a sharper west bend. The GFDL/HWRF/GFS are showing a pretty sharp west bend into the Florida peninsula with the HWRF towards South Florida and GFDL towards Central Florida on the two extreme ends. So you have to wonder when they start to bend the forecast track more to the left...the NHC likes to make gradual changes generally, so it may take a couple more advisories for them to show Chantal hitting Florida.

[Thunder44]

124100 1420N 06001W 9694 00386 0137 +197 //// 118068 070 050 013 01

70kts flight level winds. I believe the "01" flag doesn't apply towards FL and SFMR, am I right?

Yes. 01 is for T/TD.

[RL3AO]

Hmmmm pressure back up to 1010 according to latest recon pass? Am I missing something?

The plane was climbing when it made its closest pass and it may have missed the center. I wouldn't read too much into it until the next pass.

[Alyono]

that is probably because the center is near an island and they couldnt find the absolute center

[senorpepr]

I'm a bit surprised that they used 1010 hPa in the vortex message...

[cycloneye]

that is probably because the center is near an island and they couldnt find the absolute center

St Lucia.

[Evil Jeremy]

that is probably because the center is near an island and they couldnt find the absolute center

Very likely. The west wind they found was just off the coast of St. Lucia, and after they found it recon changed trajectory as to not fly over the island.

[Evil Jeremy]

000
URNT12 KNHC 091308
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL032013
A. 09/12:57:20Z
B. 13 deg 56 min N
060 deg 42 min W
C. NA
D. 55 kt
E. 062 deg 42 nm
F. 118 deg 70 kt
G. 060 deg 47 nm
H. EXTRAP 1010 mb
I. 20 C / 364 m
J. 23 C / 366 m
K. 23 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / 1
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF302 0203A CHANTAL OB 06
MAX FL WIND 70 KT 060/47 12:41:00Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM BELOW 1500 FT
;

[Evil Jeremy]

000
URNT15 KNHC 091309
AF302 0203A CHANTAL HDOB 18 20130709
130100 1349N 06051W 9080 00953 0132 +188 +183 329006 008 016 000 00
130130 1348N 06053W 9079 00958 0134 +189 +182 345007 008 012 002 00
130200 1346N 06054W 9081 00956 0136 +188 +181 009009 009 028 002 03
130230 1345N 06055W 9080 00959 0140 +185 +181 015007 009 038 001 00
130300 1344N 06056W 9080 00962 0141 +185 +183 020006 006 017 000 03
130330 1343N 06057W 9082 00959 0142 +185 +182 053009 011 /// /// 03
130400 1341N 06058W 9084 00962 0145 +187 +182 059008 010 012 001 00
130430 1340N 06100W 9079 00969 0148 +185 +182 087005 007 009 002 00
130500 1339N 06101W 9080 00968 0149 +185 +179 124004 005 006 002 00
130530 1338N 06102W 9077 00970 0150 +183 +177 093005 005 007 003 00
130600 1337N 06103W 9082 00965 0150 +185 +175 080008 009 014 001 00
130630 1335N 06104W 9095 00956 0152 +188 +172 064008 009 008 002 03
130700 1334N 06103W 9286 00779 0156 +195 +180 072005 007 005 005 03
130730 1334N 06102W 9553 00536 0157 +208 +189 132006 007 015 002 00
130800 1334N 06100W 9670 00426 0154 +210 +208 187006 008 011 005 00
130830 1334N 06058W 9709 00387 0153 +204 //// 162007 008 020 001 01
130900 1335N 06057W 9696 00400 0151 +204 +200 131008 009 021 001 01
130930 1335N 06055W 9699 00394 0150 +199 //// 148008 010 018 003 01
131000 1335N 06054W 9700 00391 0147 +211 +197 178009 010 019 001 00
131030 1335N 06052W 9703 00392 0148 +220 +200 176009 010 017 001 00
$$
;

[Fego]

A friend of mine tells me the following: "Wind gust of 44mph measured at Le Lamentin airport in #FortDeFrance in the past 10 minutes. Pressure down to 1013mb". That is in Martinique. Pending on confirmation.

[adam0983]

That would support the winds that the recon aircraft is seeing.

[RL3AO]

That last set of winds showing light eastern winds south of the island confirms that the center appears to be very broad, or its just that weak on the SW side.

[BUCMAN48]

When is Chantel expected cross/ around Hisponola?

[Evil Jeremy]

000
URNT15 KNHC 091319
AF302 0203A CHANTAL HDOB 19 20130709
131100 1335N 06050W 9698 00396 0148 +220 +200 176010 010 019 001 00
131130 1335N 06049W 9700 00394 0147 +220 +203 175009 010 017 000 00
131200 1335N 06047W 9702 00392 0148 +221 +200 166012 012 015 001 00
131230 1335N 06046W 9700 00394 0147 +222 +195 156013 014 016 001 00
131300 1335N 06044W 9700 00394 0148 +220 +198 149015 016 017 000 00
131330 1335N 06043W 9698 00396 0148 +214 +208 157018 019 017 003 00
131400 1335N 06041W 9709 00386 0149 +211 +206 162016 018 026 001 00
131430 1335N 06039W 9698 00397 0148 +216 +199 157017 017 026 001 00
131500 1335N 06038W 9699 00395 0150 +207 +206 159019 020 026 004 00
131530 1335N 06036W 9696 00398 0152 +205 //// 163023 025 028 004 01
131600 1335N 06035W 9704 00391 0153 +204 +203 158023 026 037 008 00
131630 1335N 06033W 9702 00392 0153 +204 +204 161028 030 038 012 00
131700 1336N 06032W 9693 00398 0152 +189 //// 168034 036 037 012 05
131730 1337N 06031W 9699 00392 //// +199 //// 166035 038 /// /// 05
131800 1338N 06032W 9699 00391 0146 +201 //// 159033 034 030 007 05
131830 1339N 06033W 9702 00384 0146 +196 //// 152033 035 038 009 01
131900 1340N 06035W 9656 00422 0146 +199 //// 154029 031 035 006 05
131930 1341N 06036W 9277 00767 0129 +184 +182 155020 025 /// /// 05
132000 1343N 06038W 8859 01161 0126 +171 //// 158020 021 /// /// 05
132030 1344N 06039W 8504 01517 //// +144 //// 164021 022 024 003 01
$$
;

[senorpepr]

When is Chantel expected cross/ around Hisponola?

Wednesday afternoon.