ATL: CHANTAL - Post-Tropical

[adam0983]

I am predicting a slight bend to the left at 11am based on model consensus at this time. Just an opinion not a forecast.

[Janie2006]

Lots of factors in play by Day 5. ULL off to the west and retreating further west, strong ridge building to the east and building north of Chantal, well, there you go. If GFS is right, she turns to the left. In addition, the low to the west and the high to the east makes things upstairs nice and cozy for Chantal, so some strengthening is certainly possible at that point.

[Evil Jeremy]

[SouthDadeFish]

The only thing I can think of is that there may be a funneling effect going on between the islands that is accelerating the winds at flight level. This thing barely has a closed LLC and yet is producing winds of almost hurricane force? I guess if the central pressure truly is 1003mb that could happen due to the very tight pressure gradient. What an intriguing storm.

[SouthFloridawx]

Reduce by 15%, at 1,500 ft.?

[tolakram]

even though the hurricane force surface winds likely are not valid... somehow this is nearing hurricane intensity, despite a pathetic appearance on satellite

Latest sat pic I have access too appears to show it running into a wall of shear. This should be interesting.

[AdamFirst]

even though the hurricane force surface winds likely are not valid... somehow this is nearing hurricane intensity, despite a pathetic appearance on satellite

The little engine that could

Is Chantal slowing down at all?

[adam0983]

The latest model runs would suggest a stronger Chantal and more of a South Florida impact. Just an opinion not a forecast.

[dexterlabio]

mindblown. despite such appearance, hurricane-force winds were recorded on the surface?

[SouthDadeFish]

Somehow this is producing 75 knot flight level winds:

[Evil Jeremy]

000
URNT15 KNHC 091359
AF302 0203A CHANTAL HDOB 23 20130709
135100 1455N 06121W 9051 01003 0164 +170 //// 088064 067 044 002 01
135130 1455N 06123W 9303 00766 0161 +186 +179 084063 066 043 001 01
135200 1455N 06125W 9514 00569 0158 +198 +195 080056 061 044 002 01
135230 1455N 06128W 9679 00414 0152 +206 +202 077059 060 043 001 00
135300 1455N 06130W 9693 00397 0147 +209 +203 074058 059 045 002 00
135330 1455N 06132W 9702 00391 0148 +212 +201 073055 057 041 002 00
135400 1455N 06134W 9702 00391 0148 +217 +195 075054 056 039 002 00
135430 1455N 06136W 9701 00394 0149 +217 +193 074052 054 042 003 00
135500 1455N 06138W 9688 00407 0153 +212 +199 071046 050 039 004 03
135530 1454N 06139W 9689 00402 0151 +208 +199 066044 046 /// /// 05
135600 1453N 06139W 9704 00392 0152 +209 +199 068043 046 034 002 00
135630 1451N 06138W 9705 00390 0151 +212 +198 066044 047 036 001 00
135700 1450N 06138W 9701 00394 0148 +214 +198 069045 048 034 004 00
135730 1448N 06137W 9705 00389 0145 +216 +201 070049 051 039 001 00
135800 1447N 06136W 9691 00397 0143 +213 +205 065049 053 039 002 00
135830 1446N 06136W 9699 00389 0141 +208 +206 059048 053 040 003 01
135900 1444N 06135W 9701 00384 0138 +206 +202 060048 052 041 002 03
135930 1443N 06134W 9697 00387 0136 +212 +203 061041 044 040 000 00
140000 1441N 06134W 9694 00389 0135 +219 +203 061037 041 037 002 00
140030 1440N 06133W 9699 00384 0134 +220 +203 059033 036 033 001 00
$$
;

[Miami Storm Tracker]

even though the hurricane force surface winds likely are not valid... somehow this is nearing hurricane intensity, despite a pathetic appearance on satellite

Latest sat pic I have access too appears to show it running into a wall of shear. This should be interesting.

I know the upper level low off the Florida east coast should be tracking west, but I don't see it moving this may also increase the shear.

[RL3AO]

Are we sure recon didn't switch to km/hr without us being told?

[TexasF6]

She's a fighter! 75knot flight level is 86.25mph, which are not at the surface yet.....

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[tolakram]

Latest pic from the FTP site. You can clearly see the center.

[torrea40]

Time: 13:35:30Z
Coordinates: 14.4667N 60.8167W
Acft. Static Air Press: 842.9 mb (~ 24.89 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 1,584 meters (~ 5,197 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1013.2 mb (~ 29.92 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 119° at 60 knots (From the ESE at ~ 69.0 mph)
Air Temp: 15.0°C* (~ 59.0°F*)
Dew Pt: -*
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 63 knots (~ 72.4 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 84 knots* (~ 96.6 mph*)
SFMR Rain Rate: 9 mm/hr* (~ 0.35 in/hr*)
(*) Denotes suspect data

[jlauderdal]

Somehow this is producing 75 knot flight level winds:

http://img405.imageshack.us/img405/8202/32v7.jpg

yep but we know recon has the final say, we have seen some great looking IR images that are not so great when recon arrives

[RL3AO]

Time: 13:35:30Z
Coordinates: 14.4667N 60.8167W
Acft. Static Air Press: 842.9 mb (~ 24.89 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 1,584 meters (~ 5,197 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1013.2 mb (~ 29.92 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 119° at 60 knots (From the ESE at ~ 69.0 mph)
Air Temp: 15.0°C* (~ 59.0°F*)
Dew Pt: -*
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 63 knots (~ 72.4 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 84 knots* (~ 96.6 mph*)
SFMR Rain Rate: 9 mm/hr* (~ 0.35 in/hr*)
(*) Denotes suspect data

This was a land contaminated report.

[senorpepr]

Time: 13:35:30Z
Coordinates: 14.4667N 60.8167W
Acft. Static Air Press: 842.9 mb (~ 24.89 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 1,584 meters (~ 5,197 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1013.2 mb (~ 29.92 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 119° at 60 knots (From the ESE at ~ 69.0 mph)
Air Temp: 15.0°C* (~ 59.0°F*)
Dew Pt: -*
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 63 knots (~ 72.4 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 84 knots* (~ 96.6 mph*)
SFMR Rain Rate: 9 mm/hr* (~ 0.35 in/hr*)
(*) Denotes suspect data

That SFMR reading is flagged. Considering the proximity to land and that the SFMR is above flight level... I'd toss it out.

[Blown Away]

Latest pic from the FTP site. You can clearly see the center.

http://imageshack.us/a/img853/3050/h5z.jpg

Wow, that is a very cool shot and worth bumping!!