ATL: CHANTAL - Post-Tropical

[floridasun78]

The aircraft has recorded winds of 80.5mph in the Northern quadrant of the storm. The registration of sustained winds has been consistent in is being strengthened with a range of strong winds of 65 to 80...

question that a gust wind? in storm

[senorpepr]

The aircraft has recorded winds of 80.5mph in the Northern quadrant of the storm. The registration of sustained winds has been consistent in is being strengthened with a range of strong winds of 65 to 80...

Note that 80.5 mph isn't at the surface. Flight level winds and SFMR seem to support 55 kt or about 65 mph.

[Evil Jeremy]

[gatorcane]

NHC advisory out soon...you got to think there will be more of a bend to the west towards Florida at the end of the forecast track given the models consensus from the 06Z runs.

[artist]

Thank you. I will take a look at it. I thought that it was 15% at that level.

I found this -

4. Operational Recommendations
Based on these and similar analyses for other normalization altitudes, the following reduction factors are recommended for reducing flight-level winds in the inner core of a tropical cyclone to the surface (33 ft) level: for the 700 mb level, R = 0.90; for the 850 mb level (commonly flown in tropical storms), R = 0.80. For investigative flights at 1,000 ft, R = 0.85. As significant variations from these means have been noted in individual storms; these guidelines can be modified as conditions warrant. Storm-to-storm variability will primarily be influenced by wind speed, cyclone convective intensity, and sea-surface temperature

[floridasun78]

plane going round check were report pressure of 1010 and 1003 ( plane going check area again)

[tolakram]

Nice saved radar loop from http://www.meteo.gp/donnees/bulletin/3h/bul_3h_mart.php

[CrazyC83]

Do we have reliable surface data to help us out as well?

[floridasun78]

ok this we get plane report that wind are higher 50mph if we reading it right any were from 60mph to 70mph 11am will tell us more

[Blown Away]

NHC advisory out soon...you got to think there will be more of a bend to the west towards Florida at the end of the forecast track given the models consensus from the 06Z runs.

Based on models, not sure where else to send the storm at day 4/5, will there be an S or H in the black circle at day 5?

[Evil Jeremy]

000
URNT15 KNHC 091429
AF302 0203A CHANTAL HDOB 26 20130709
142100 1356N 06109W 9697 00389 //// +195 //// 186025 026 035 003 01
142130 1355N 06109W 9699 00389 //// +201 //// 183025 026 031 004 01
142200 1353N 06109W 9697 00391 0144 +207 //// 186025 026 030 003 01
142230 1352N 06109W 9699 00394 //// +202 //// 188025 026 029 003 01
142300 1351N 06109W 9698 00391 0145 +207 +207 185024 026 027 001 01
142330 1349N 06109W 9697 00394 0145 +209 +207 178021 023 024 002 01
142400 1348N 06110W 9702 00391 0147 +214 +203 187019 020 025 002 00
142430 1347N 06110W 9707 00387 0149 +212 +205 190020 020 028 002 00
142500 1345N 06110W 9698 00398 0151 +213 +203 195020 021 027 002 00
142530 1344N 06110W 9701 00397 0152 +214 +202 192020 021 026 000 00
142600 1342N 06110W 9703 00394 0151 +207 +204 193020 021 028 003 01
142630 1341N 06110W 9696 00398 0152 +207 +204 199019 020 029 003 00
142700 1341N 06110W 9696 00398 0151 +208 +206 204019 020 026 006 00
142730 1338N 06110W 9700 00396 0151 +211 +204 206019 020 025 003 00
142800 1337N 06110W 9701 00397 0155 +211 +204 204018 019 026 003 00
142830 1335N 06110W 9699 00401 0157 +217 +202 201019 020 025 003 00
142900 1334N 06110W 9697 00406 0157 +219 +202 198020 020 023 002 00
142930 1333N 06110W 9704 00397 0156 +223 +199 195019 020 023 002 00
143000 1331N 06110W 9700 00402 0157 +220 +202 196017 019 023 002 03
143030 1330N 06111W 9692 00406 0155 +220 +200 199016 017 020 000 03
$$
;

[Blown Away]

Nice saved radar loop from http://www.meteo.gp/donnees/bulletin/3h/bul_3h_mart.php

http://imageshack.us/a/img94/2690/q6q.gif]

Bro, your on a roll with some great shots!! Thanks...

[Evil Jeremy]

Can someone please take over the HDOB's and images?

[gatorcane]

NHC advisory out soon...you got to think there will be more of a bend to the west towards Florida at the end of the forecast track given the models consensus from the 06Z runs.

Based on models, not sure where else to send the storm at day 4/5, will there be an S or H in the black circle at day 5?

I think it will still be an "S."

[floridasun78]

ok what nhc use as pressure 1008,1010,1003 nhc have three choice

[Evil Jeremy]

NHC advisory out soon...you got to think there will be more of a bend to the west towards Florida at the end of the forecast track given the models consensus from the 06Z runs.

Based on models, not sure where else to send the storm at day 4/5, will there be an S or H in the black circle at day 5?

I think it will still be an "S."

I do think we might get hurricane watches for Hispaniola though.

[artist]

Can someone please take over the HDOB's and images?

give me 10 minutes and I can pick it up.

[Evil Jeremy]

Can someone please take over the HDOB's and images?

give me 10 minutes and I can pick it up.

Thanks man. Ill post the next HBOD and you can take over after that.

[adam0983]

Tropical Storm Chantal could be a Hurricane with the highest pressure ever. Just an opinion not a forecast.

[wxman57]

Center passed less than 30 miles south of Martinique. Obs are below. Peak sustained wind 33 kts gusting as high as 46 kts. If Chantal has stronger winds it's hiding them well.

TFFF| |091430|73.0F|71.0F|94.1%|110|028|046|2147483647.00|999|BKN|Rain , Mist
TFFF| |091400|77.0F|73.0F|88.7%|090|033|045|2147483647.00|999|OVC|Rain , Mist
TFFF| |091330|77.0F|73.0F|88.7%|070|030|041|2147483647.00|999|OVC|Light Rain , Mist
TFFF| |091300|77.0F|71.0F|83.5%|050|022|038|2147483647.00|999|BKN|Light Rain
TFFF| |091230|78.0F|75.0F|88.8%|050|017|028|2147483647.00|999|BKN|Light Rain
TFFF| |091200|80.0F|75.0F|83.7%|040|018|032|2147483647.00|999|BKN|Heavy Rain , Mist
TFFF| |091130|82.0F|75.0F|79.0%|040|012|000|2147483647.00|999|BKN|
TFFF| |091100|82.0F|75.0F|79.0%|050|014|000|2147483647.00|999|BKN|
TFFF| |091030|80.0F|75.0F|83.7%|040|012|000|2147483647.00|999|BKN|
TFFF| |091000|80.0F|75.0F|83.7%|040|010|000|2147483647.00|999|BKN|
TFFF| |090930|77.0F|73.0F|88.7%|040|012|022|2147483647.00|999|OVC|
TFFF| |090900|78.0F|75.0F|88.8%|040|007|000|2147483647.00|999|BKN|
TFFF| |090830|78.0F|75.0F|88.8%|040|010|000|2147483647.00|999|BKN|
TFFF| |090800|78.0F|75.0F|88.8%|030|005|000|2147483647.00|999|BKN|Heavy Rain , Mist