ATL: CHANTAL - Post-Tropical

[adam0983]

The new track now shows tropical storm Chantal stalling around days 4 and 5 off the coast of the Bahamas near florida. This is not good news. Just an opinion not a forecast.

[Aric Dunn]

NHC in 11am disc reports that conditions will not be favorable for strengthening in the Bahamas yet both the GFDL and HWRF models in their 06z runs show rather rapid intensification. I don't get it. Perhaps some of of our pro Mets can chime in on their reasoning.

again. this because the strengthening occurs past the NHC 5 days forecast.

[HurricaneFrances04]

Could be due to the high level of uncertainty after Hispaniola.

I would think, if that was the case, it wouldn't show strengthening after Hispaniola followed by the weakening.

[Bocadude85]

The new track now shows tropical storm Chantal stalling around days 4 and 5 off the coast of the Bahamas near florida. This is not good news. Just an opinion not a forecast.

Its going to be interesting to see how she interacts with Hispanola. Thats the wild card in my opinion. Ive head serveral mets on this board say conditions should be good for strengtheing in the Bahamas.

[artist]

URNT15 KNHC 091520
AF302 0203A CHANTAL HDOB 31 20130709
151100 1420N 06137W 9698 00341 //// +211 //// 243017 020 028 001 01
151130 1422N 06138W 9698 00336 0080 +219 +216 225013 016 027 002 05
151200 1423N 06139W 9698 00334 //// +222 //// 198004 010 023 003 05
151230 1423N 06140W 9704 00329 0074 +227 +224 097002 003 023 000 01
151300 1424N 06142W 9703 00330 0075 +230 +223 070008 010 021 000 00
151330 1425N 06143W 9699 00336 0079 +230 +222 061015 019 023 000 03
151400 1425N 06145W 9701 00336 0081 +230 +220 063025 030 023 000 03
151430 1427N 06145W 9699 00336 0079 +236 +215 066034 037 033 001 00
151500 1428N 06145W 9698 00336 0077 +235 +215 066038 040 036 002 00
151530 1430N 06144W 9696 00339 0080 +220 //// 075044 046 038 002 01
151600 1431N 06144W 9704 00331 0080 +214 //// 080053 053 041 001 01
151630 1432N 06144W 9690 00349 0086 +207 //// 080054 058 042 003 01
151700 1434N 06144W 9703 00336 //// +208 //// 080053 060 045 002 01
151730 1435N 06144W 9689 00353 0090 +212 +212 084059 060 046 001 01
151800 1436N 06144W 9698 00349 0094 +212 +210 084058 061 048 006 05
151830 1438N 06144W 9702 00347 0097 +211 +210 083054 057 046 001 01
151900 1439N 06144W 9707 00347 0102 +205 //// 081051 053 043 003 01
151930 1441N 06144W 9698 00357 0104 +206 +205 078055 058 045 003 00
152000 1442N 06144W 9688 00368 0106 +208 +202 083056 059 045 003 00
152030 1443N 06143W 9699 00359 0111 +199 +198 084058 060 044 015 03
$$

[Jevo]

12z GFS Initialized

[artist]

[tailgater]

Note the forecaster, just an observation

Sorry to make an example, but please do not do this. State your opinion of the forecast but leave opinions of forecasters out of it please. Thanks.

i wasn't judging the forecasters just noting that they have different thoughts on the patterns ahead, i have no idea which is correct.
But I see how my post could have been read the wrong way.

[floridasun78]

nhc did not say 11am that could be hurr their say may go up little bit more like 65 to 70

[BUCMAN48]

If some of these models are considered terrible(ex; some say NAM is useless), why do they continue to use them?

[Aric Dunn]

Tropical Storm Chantal Models remind me of Hurricane Jeanne back in 2004 because most of the models are now showing a turn back to Florida and now are showing less time over of the island of Hispaniola. Not a forecast just an opinion.

Jeanne was a much stronger and organized system in the Caribbean though before it emerged north of the islands and made the loop.

jeanne degenerated after DR reorganized later.

[ronjon]

NHC in 11am disc reports that conditions will not be favorable for strengthening in the Bahamas yet both the GFDL and HWRF models in their 06z runs show rather rapid intensification. I don't get it. Perhaps some of of our pro Mets can chime in on their reasoning.

again. this because the strengthening occurs past the NHC 5 days forecast.

You may be right but that wasn't the case at the 5 am disc plus the tropical models only run out to 126 hrs and did show strengthening well before that. Just sayin.

[tolakram]

Note the forecaster, just an observation

Sorry to make an example, but please do not do this. State your opinion of the forecast but leave opinions of forecasters out of it please. Thanks.

i wasn't judging the forecasters just noting that they have different thoughts on the patterns ahead, i have no idea which is correct.
But I see how my post could have been read the wrong way.

Not a huge problem, and we may agree, but it's too easy to drift into met bashing IMO and I think we just need to state disagreement with the forecast and move on.

[WeatherEmperor]

NHC in 11am disc reports that conditions will not be favorable for strengthening in the Bahamas yet both the GFDL and HWRF models in their 06z runs show rather rapid intensification. I don't get it. Perhaps some of of our pro Mets can chime in on their reasoning.

again. this because the strengthening occurs past the NHC 5 days forecast.

Thats a good point...but why did they show slow strenghtening on days 4 and 5 on the previous forecast and now they dont?

Sent from my HTC EVO 4G LTE

[WeatherOrKnot]

WPB mets are at it again. According to them we are in the clear.

Supposed to have my kiddos bday party at a park on Sunday. Not sure what to do at this point.

[Blown Away]

Approximately 80 hours from the time Chantal leaves Hispaniola to it's 5 day position in the NW Bahamas...

[Bocadude85]

WPB mets are at it again. According to them we are in the clear.

Supposed to have my kiddos bday party at a park on Sunday. Not sure what to do at this point.

Thats funny considering the NHC shifted the track closer to us.

[Aric Dunn]

NHC in 11am disc reports that conditions will not be favorable for strengthening in the Bahamas yet both the GFDL and HWRF models in their 06z runs show rather rapid intensification. I don't get it. Perhaps some of of our pro Mets can chime in on their reasoning.

again. this because the strengthening occurs past the NHC 5 days forecast.

Thats a good point...but why did they show slow strenghtening on days 4 and 5 on the previous forecast and now they dont?

Sent from my HTC EVO 4G LTE

Thats all they have been saying and even the models have slow strengthening... even the GFDL of makes it 80kts which is not rapid..

[Jevo]

12z GFS +24

[Riptide]

GFS remains somewhat weak and open-wavish with Chantal. Mabye the Euro was onto something.