ATL: CHANTAL - Post-Tropical

[artist]

WPB mets are at it again. According to them we are in the clear.

Supposed to have my kiddos bday party at a park on Sunday. Not sure what to do at this point.

Think I would plan an alternative you could put into action just in case if things are still showing the same by tomorrow.

[tolakram]

Tough call for the NHC IMO.

Forecast a strong storm just off Florida knowing shear and intensity forecasts are horrible at that range? Take the middle of the road, showing a stall at moderate strength because it's not clear yet what will happen? Their primary job is to warn the public of tropical hazards, but alarming the public this far out will only lead to complacency if they end up being wrong. In my opinion.

So this far out I would probably take a middle of the road call and hope to get more clarity in the forecast during the next day or so.


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[AtlanticWind]

I think is is because the Euro And GFS don't show anything more than a wave on their last runs they are splitting the difference on the Intensity

[artist]

URNT15 KNHC 091529
AF302 0203A CHANTAL HDOB 32 20130709
152100 1445N 06143W 9696 00366 0111 +209 +197 084057 060 043 004 00
152130 1446N 06143W 9704 00361 0113 +219 +192 084058 059 042 001 00
152200 1448N 06143W 9701 00366 0116 +224 +192 084052 059 041 002 00
152230 1449N 06143W 9698 00369 0117 +225 +192 084046 048 040 002 00
152300 1451N 06143W 9700 00368 0118 +225 +187 089051 054 040 002 00
152330 1452N 06143W 9700 00369 0119 +225 +190 090051 053 039 001 00
152400 1453N 06143W 9696 00378 0121 +226 +190 091051 052 041 000 00
152430 1455N 06143W 9703 00372 0124 +225 +189 090052 053 045 001 03
152500 1456N 06143W 9699 00374 0125 +224 +185 091056 057 048 001 03
152530 1458N 06143W 9699 00377 0127 +222 +188 091057 058 046 003 00
152600 1459N 06142W 9702 00378 0130 +221 +190 088058 061 047 002 03
152630 1501N 06142W 9688 00392 0132 +222 +193 091058 062 045 000 00
152700 1502N 06142W 9697 00384 0133 +225 +193 091056 062 045 001 00
152730 1504N 06142W 9703 00378 0135 +224 +185 095063 067 050 001 03
152800 1505N 06142W 9703 00381 0135 +224 +187 096063 067 049 001 00
152830 1507N 06142W 9699 00383 0135 +226 +184 099061 065 049 005 03
152900 1508N 06142W 9700 00385 0138 +227 +181 099064 068 048 003 03
152930 1510N 06142W 9690 00398 0141 +229 +181 101060 064 047 002 00
153000 1511N 06142W 9700 00394 0144 +227 +198 096051 056 042 001 00
153030 1513N 06141W 9701 00394 0148 +222 +200 096053 054 040 001 00
$$
;

[artist]

000
URNT12 KNHC 091533
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL032013
A. 09/15:12:30Z
B. 14 deg 23 min N
061 deg 40 min W
C. NA
D. 30 kt
E. 193 deg 16 nm
F. 242 deg 20 kt
G. 139 deg 4 nm
H. EXTRAP 1007 mb
I. 19 C / 365 m
J. 23 C / 366 m
K. 23 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345 / 1
O. 0.02 / 0 nm
P. AF302 0203A CHANTAL OB 13
MAX FL WIND 75 KT 059/60 13:43:30Z
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 68 KT 358/44 15:29:00Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM BELOW 1500 FT

[Blown Away]

1928, I found one storm that entered Hispaniola as a TD or TS and gathered enough strength to landfall in Florida as a hurricane... History says if Chantal goes in weak she comes out weak and stays that way... Note, it appears the 1928 storm stalled/moved slowly in the Bahamas to give it the time to strengthen...

[AdamFirst]

GFS remains somewhat weak and open-wavish with Chantal. Mabye the Euro was onto something.

This is hardly an open wave with hurricane force gusts currently ongoing on Martinique. GFS must have initialized it too weak.

[artist]

pressure latest VDM down to 1007
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 68 KT 358/44 15:29:00Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM BELOW 1500 FT
SPIRAL BAND N-E, 75KTS AT 850MB LEVEL, MAX SFMR WIND OUTBOUND LEG AT 15:27:30Z
;

[RL3AO]

If some of these models are considered terrible(ex; some say NAM is useless), why do they continue to use them?

The NAM is very useful for forecasting severe weather and winter weather. It just has its weaknesses when it comes to the tropics.

[Riptide]

GFS remains somewhat weak and open-wavish with Chantal. Mabye the Euro was onto something.

This is hardly an open wave with hurricane force gusts currently ongoing on Martinique. GFS must have initialized it too weak.

Not that it matters, Hispaniola is pretty much end-game for Chantal if it goes into it in its current state.

[chris_fit]

Looking little South than past runs, so far.

[Jevo]

12z GFS +36 (Switching to 850mb for location purposes)

[RL3AO]

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF BARBADOS HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING AND WATCH FOR BARBADOS AND ST. VINCENT.

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE
WATCH FROM BARAHONA TO SAMANA AND ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FOR THE ENTIRE COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTH COAST OF
HAITI.


Does the lack of "THE GOVERNMENT OF HAITI HAS ISSUED" mean something? Does the NHC issue warnings (or more like advise) warnings for Haiti?

[AdamFirst]

12z GFS rolling. Looks like a bad run to me - storm was initialized way too weak.

[tolakram]

Convection continues to build with the center now covered up, as best as I can tell.

[Aric Dunn]

45 hr...

a little left however shes been consistently right of track thus far

[Aric Dunn]

by 54 hr.. no longer a 500mb vort.. could have killed it over DR

[Jevo]

12z GFS +48 ... Where'd she go

[Riptide]

12z GFS rolling. Looks like a bad run to me - storm was initialized way too weak.

Hey, at least it is just a bonus July TC. Florida will get their chance down the road, and for those who don't like landfalling hurricanes...mission accomplished!

[artist]