ATL: CHANTAL - Post-Tropical

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#1881 Postby ConvergenceZone » Tue Jul 09, 2013 10:46 am

looks like with the latest advisory they are now showing a weakening trend once it gets off the coast of
Florida. Earlier they showed 60 mph but now they are weakening it to 45 mph. I know that strength forecasts
mean little this early on, but it does show you the trend and what they are expecting....
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Re: ATL: CHANTAL - Models

#1882 Postby AtlanticWind » Tue Jul 09, 2013 10:47 am

Destroyed on OO GFS.
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Re: ATL: CHANTAL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1883 Postby northjaxpro » Tue Jul 09, 2013 10:48 am

tolakram wrote:Convection continues to build with the center now covered up, as best as I can tell.

Image


Yes, convection is trying to build near the COC again, as compared to a couple of hours ago. I will say this about Chantal, and that is she is one tough fighter. I am absolutely amazed how she has maintained the COC relatively intact despite the fast forward motion.
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#1884 Postby HurricaneFrances04 » Tue Jul 09, 2013 10:49 am

Incredible shift south with the 12Z GFS.
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Re: ATL: CHANTAL - Models

#1885 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Jul 09, 2013 10:49 am

I know what happened.. the gfs now no longer weakens the ridge enough to alow her to get out of the carrib. check out the ridge north of her from the 6z to now also note the upper low in the gulf that causes the weakness no longer there at the 12z... thrown this run out.. that upper low over northern bahamas now still quite prevalent.



6z
Image


12z
Image
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#1886 Postby artist » Tue Jul 09, 2013 10:50 am

URNT15 KNHC 091539
AF302 0203A CHANTAL HDOB 33 20130709
153100 1514N 06141W 9704 00391 0150 +220 +198 102051 053 039 001 00
153130 1516N 06141W 9694 00402 0150 +227 +202 103047 051 041 001 00
153200 1517N 06141W 9701 00397 0150 +231 +199 103043 049 040 001 00
153230 1519N 06141W 9706 00391 0152 +225 +202 101036 039 031 001 00
153300 1520N 06141W 9698 00401 0152 +225 +202 106038 041 031 002 00
153330 1522N 06141W 9699 00400 0154 +215 +204 106041 045 034 006 00
153400 1524N 06141W 9687 00412 0153 +227 +202 103037 044 031 007 03
153430 1524N 06143W 9701 00398 0152 +231 +199 096035 036 034 004 00
153500 1523N 06145W 9699 00398 0150 +233 +197 095036 037 034 004 00
153530 1523N 06146W 9696 00402 0151 +233 +196 095035 037 033 002 00
153600 1523N 06146W 9696 00402 0149 +232 +197 095034 035 033 000 00
153630 1522N 06150W 9695 00405 0152 +232 +199 092033 035 032 000 00
153700 1522N 06152W 9703 00398 0154 +226 +203 086032 033 031 000 00
153730 1522N 06154W 9698 00403 0153 +228 +198 090032 033 032 001 00
153800 1521N 06156W 9700 00400 0152 +230 +197 093034 034 038 003 00
153830 1521N 06158W 9696 00401 0152 +224 +201 088039 040 039 002 00
153900 1521N 06159W 9709 00394 0156 +214 +209 083034 039 038 012 00
153930 1521N 06201W 9694 00405 0156 +204 //// 077039 041 047 012 01
154000 1520N 06203W 9705 00392 0152 +217 +209 076038 042 036 002 00
154030 1520N 06205W 9701 00394 0149 +218 +207 076035 038 032 002 00
$$
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Re: ATL: CHANTAL - Models

#1887 Postby Riptide » Tue Jul 09, 2013 10:51 am

Degenerates before she even hits DR/Haiti. Will need to monitor today's trends to see how this will go. GFS is sniffing out something that was not there in 0z.

Image
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Re: ATL: CHANTAL - Recon

#1888 Postby artist » Tue Jul 09, 2013 10:52 am

Image
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Re: ATL: CHANTAL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1889 Postby ScottNAtlanta » Tue Jul 09, 2013 10:52 am

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#1890 Postby Jevo » Tue Jul 09, 2013 10:52 am

Not only did the GFS kill Chantel, but it seems to have done a number on the NCEP page
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#1891 Postby Weatherboy1 » Tue Jul 09, 2013 10:53 am

I think the NHC has a VERY tricky forecast on its hands. Many of the models show a distinct bend back to the west toward Florida in a few days ... but that's assuming there's even a storm LEFT after Chantal crosses the DR/Haiti (assuming she has to do battle with the tallest mountains there). If the models persist in forecasting a "left hook" in the next cycle or two, I think that the NHC forecast track/black line is going to be showing a landfalling FL storm either at 5 p.m. or 11 p.m., and that's going to get the media all riled up here. But it could turn out to be nothing if Chantal goes "poof" like other storms that fought with Hispanola and lost.

Very interesting times ahead to be sure. I'm glad I'm just a semi-educated amateur and not writing NHC advisories! LOL
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Re: ATL: CHANTAL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1892 Postby ScottNAtlanta » Tue Jul 09, 2013 10:54 am

Something else I noticed on the last vortex was that the temperature difference in/out of center was 4c which is almost double what it was the previous 2. Could this indicate a possible slower forward motion?
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#1893 Postby artist » Tue Jul 09, 2013 10:56 am

URNT15 KNHC 091549
AF302 0203A CHANTAL HDOB 34 20130709
154100 1520N 06207W 9696 00389 0138 +219 +209 072030 033 030 000 00
154130 1519N 06209W 9701 00389 0143 +218 +212 068032 033 030 001 00
154200 1519N 06211W 9707 00386 0145 +222 +210 072035 036 030 002 00
154230 1519N 06212W 9696 00394 0141 +227 +204 071036 038 031 000 00
154300 1518N 06214W 9704 00387 0142 +227 +204 070038 039 036 001 00
154330 1518N 06216W 9694 00395 0142 +221 +205 071040 042 038 001 00
154400 1518N 06218W 9702 00390 0144 +223 +203 071044 045 040 000 00
154430 1517N 06220W 9699 00394 0144 +221 +205 072046 046 040 000 00
154500 1517N 06222W 9696 00396 0146 +219 +204 070045 047 040 002 00
154530 1517N 06224W 9705 00389 0147 +219 +207 068045 046 040 001 00
154600 1517N 06226W 9702 00394 0147 +218 +209 061041 045 036 001 00
154630 1516N 06228W 9693 00401 0146 +219 +207 059043 046 037 000 00
154700 1516N 06230W 9695 00398 0148 +215 +209 055040 047 035 001 00
154730 1516N 06232W 9709 00385 0148 +208 +207 060042 044 034 001 01
154800 1515N 06233W 9698 00397 0148 +223 +205 057039 043 033 000 00
154830 1515N 06235W 9698 00396 0148 +220 +207 058039 039 033 000 00
154900 1515N 06237W 9702 00394 0148 +221 +205 059041 042 035 000 00
154930 1514N 06239W 9708 00386 0148 +218 +209 056036 041 036 000 00
155000 1514N 06241W 9694 00400 0148 +219 +206 059038 039 034 001 00
155030 1514N 06243W 9705 00389 0147 +217 +208 058037 040 032 001 00
$$
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Re: ATL: CHANTAL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1894 Postby Riptide » Tue Jul 09, 2013 10:56 am

ScottNAtlanta wrote:Still visible on Martinique radar
http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... SAIC2.html

Looks horrible, that vortex has started traveling WSW...a sure sign of a decoupling system. At this point, I don't think it is gaining enough laditude to avoid the shredder.
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Re: Re:

#1895 Postby ScottNAtlanta » Tue Jul 09, 2013 10:57 am

Riptide wrote:
AdamFirst wrote:12z GFS rolling. Looks like a bad run to me - storm was initialized way too weak.

Hey, at least it is just a bonus July TC. Florida will get their chance down the road, and for those who don't like landfalling hurricanes...mission accomplished!


I think thats on the NHC's mind as well. You dont want to forecast something and get everyone worked up for nothing and then later in the season have people complacent when there really is something substantial
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#1896 Postby Janie2006 » Tue Jul 09, 2013 10:58 am

ULL goes *poof*. I'm not sure about this run. That low has been a determined mamajama, I don't see it filling in suddenly overnight.
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Re: ATL: CHANTAL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1897 Postby ScottNAtlanta » Tue Jul 09, 2013 10:59 am

Riptide wrote:
ScottNAtlanta wrote:Still visible on Martinique radar
http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... SAIC2.html

Looks horrible, that vortex has started traveling WSW...a sure sign of a decoupling system. At this point, I don't think it is gaining enough laditude to avoid the shredder.


In all fairness though...that radar has always been hard for me to read (and I dont speak French which makes it a little more difficult to navigate)
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#1898 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Jul 09, 2013 11:00 am

I wonder if this holds the record for fasted TC in the deep tropics.. really 29 mph... thats type of pace you find after a tc gets pickup and out to sea..
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#1899 Postby ConvergenceZone » Tue Jul 09, 2013 11:00 am

even if it falls apart like it might, it could be quite the rain maker for Florida
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Re: ATL: CHANTAL - Recon

#1900 Postby artist » Tue Jul 09, 2013 11:00 am

Image
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