ATL: CHANTAL - Post-Tropical

[Aric Dunn]

ok i gfdl i see it go through middle of Dominican Republic not sure how can make it through it still be tropical system

If it is still moving quickly at that time, it won't be over the DR for very long. This would help it keep its tropical characteristics.

true the fast pace may help it get through.. especially if it goes over the eastern part of DR

[chris_fit]

I am inclined to believe Chantal has peaked. Vis Sat shows several outflow boundaries from the CoC. In addition, it finally appears the CoC is outrunning the convection. IMO, It's all down here from here. The main models no longer show any significant systems near the Bahamas - I would not just throw out the last GFS run, I think it might be spot on. Does this mean no high wind gusts and heavy rain? Absolutely not. But chances of a strong organized tropical system are dwindling.



The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[artist]

Thanks Jeremy & Artist for taking this one today, I had family things I had to do this morning no choice. I'll be on the one tonight.

no problem, Dave.

I can break you now if you want? Just sitting here catching up on all the info.

FInish what you are doing. I am fine for awhille. Thanks, though!

[Dave]

Ok will do...thanks!

[ROCK]

thanks Jevo for your model posting.. ..I actually like the NAVGEM now that it has a new name....

It's sad that all of the models I grew up using are being replaced/retired... NOGAPS, GFDL, UKMET... These kids don't know how good they have it. We used to use the AVN, and we liked it dangit.

AE98 was one...that used to throw out all kinds of solutions....

[Aric Dunn]

recon still show a well defined circ and its right on track.. maybe slightly to the right..

[Jevo]

thanks Jevo for your model posting.. ..I actually like the NAVGEM now that it has a new name....

It's sad that all of the models I grew up using are being replaced/retired... NOGAPS, GFDL, UKMET... These kids don't know how good they have it. We used to use the AVN, and we liked it dangit.

AE98 was one...that used to throw out all kinds of solutions....

Don't get me started on graphics... Mike Watkins and I (Mostly Watkins) had to plug numerical outputs into an excel spreadsheet to get plot points and overlay it on a map if we wanted graphics.

[Hammy]

the center was outrunning the convection yesterday as well--slow strengthening still appears likely, especially with the latest convective burst.

[Aric Dunn]

yeah recon vdm show a slight bend to the more to the right

[Jevo]

12z NAVGEM +72 taking the grand tour of Cuba riding the spine

[Dave]

Chantal is not dead until the NHC declares it to be. Until that happens please refrain from posting the grave yard & other dead pictures. Thank You!

[Evil Jeremy]

Speaking of Mike and the good ol' days, man I miss the Talkin Tropics radio show.

[CrazyC83]

Yes, that is fast for the deep tropics, but how do storms sustain themselves in the middle latitudes at 40, 50, even 60 mph?

[artist]

URNT15 KNHC 091630
AF302 0203A CHANTAL HDOB 38 20130709
162100 1427N 06151W 9699 00368 0120 +211 +211 172026 029 047 047 00
162130 1426N 06150W 9701 00372 0126 +211 +211 174029 031 041 042 00
162200 1425N 06149W 9699 00377 0131 +211 +211 184033 036 042 014 00
162230 1424N 06148W 9702 00378 0133 +213 +213 187036 037 039 008 00
162300 1423N 06147W 9703 00379 0135 +211 +209 183036 036 040 006 00
162330 1422N 06146W 9699 00385 0140 +206 //// 182038 039 042 008 01
162400 1421N 06145W 9680 00403 0140 +208 //// 170038 041 044 010 01
162430 1420N 06145W 9705 00381 0140 +213 +208 170039 041 042 004 00
162500 1419N 06144W 9696 00392 0143 +213 +205 172035 038 042 006 00
162530 1418N 06143W 9707 00385 0145 +215 +204 169034 034 041 003 00
162600 1417N 06142W 9699 00395 0148 +213 +203 166035 035 040 005 00
162630 1416N 06141W 9700 00394 0149 +214 +203 165036 037 039 006 00
162700 1415N 06140W 9696 00400 0151 +211 +208 164034 036 038 005 00
162730 1414N 06139W 9703 00395 0154 +205 +201 167035 037 038 006 00
162800 1413N 06138W 9701 00397 0155 +207 +202 164036 036 037 006 00
162830 1412N 06138W 9698 00401 0156 +206 +204 166034 036 036 008 00
162900 1411N 06137W 9703 00396 0156 +207 +198 171033 034 037 007 00
162930 1410N 06136W 9704 00396 0155 +212 +200 170033 034 035 007 00
163000 1409N 06135W 9701 00398 0155 +212 +205 167031 032 033 005 00
163030 1409N 06135W 9701 00398 0156 +215 +204 167031 031 031 004 00
$$

[Jevo]

Speaking of Mike and the good ol' days, man I miss the Talkin Tropics radio show.

Those were good times, I had a lot of fun setting up the interviews with the heavy weights of the weather community. I believe he is going to start another show or podcast soon™. You can always drop him a line on Twitter @watkinstrack

[Jevo]

12z NAVGEM +96 well that's new

[CrazyC83]

One other thing - Recon data suggests the pressure on the periphery is like 1020ish. The OCI pressure is probably like 1016 to 1018.

[Aric Dunn]

Speaking of Mike and the good ol' days, man I miss the Talkin Tropics radio show.

Those were good times, I had a lot of fun setting up the interviews with the heavy weights of the weather community. I believe he is going to start another show or podcast soon™. You can always drop him a line on Twitter @watkinstrack

yeah man ! I remember covering RITA with you jevo !

[torrea40]

yeah recon vdm show a slight bend to the more to the right

Chantel will be move to the North.??

[artist]