ATL: CHANTAL - Post-Tropical

[ROCK]

yep NAVGEM plows right into the spine of FL before turning west...not sure how great that run is given it travels the entire length of Cuba and still manages to stay intact....lol

[artist]

000
URNT12 KNHC 091638
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL032013
A. 09/16:15:20Z
B. 14 deg 33 min N
062 deg 01 min W
C. NA
D. 38 kt
E. 297 deg 22 nm
F. 059 deg 44 kt
G. 302 deg 30 nm
H. EXTRAP 1005 mb
I. 20 C / 366 m
J. 23 C / 366 m
K. 23 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345 / 1
O. 0.02 / 3 nm
P. AF302 0203A CHANTAL OB 16
MAX FL WIND 75 KT 072/76 13:43:30Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM BELOW 1500 FT
SPIRAL BAND E-S, 75KTS AT 850MB LEVEL, MAX SFMR WIND OF 53KTS ON OUTBOUND AT 16:19:30Z

[Blown Away]

Nice blow up on the IR... Lol, looks like the eye

[SouthDadeFish]

Recon is showing a very tight pressure gradient. Also, with the lowest pressure around 14.6N 62W, the LLC is still not completely exposed. There are some outflow boundaries shooting out, but that's not the center. The center is just on the edge of the convection and still appears tilted.

[AdvAutoBob]

even if it falls apart like it might, it could be quite the rain maker for Florida

This much is a certainty... SW Florida is already waterlogged in spots, too...

[artist]

URNT15 KNHC 091639
AF302 0203A CHANTAL HDOB 39 20130709
163100 1408N 06133W 9700 00401 0157 +216 +205 167030 031 032 003 00
163130 1407N 06132W 9699 00402 0157 +215 +207 167030 031 032 003 00
163200 1406N 06131W 9695 00408 0160 +211 +209 166028 030 035 004 00
163230 1405N 06131W 9700 00404 0161 +216 +209 167029 030 033 005 00
163300 1404N 06130W 9702 00406 0165 +208 +206 168029 030 036 011 00
163330 1403N 06129W 9697 00409 0163 +214 +211 167028 030 034 008 00
163400 1402N 06128W 9702 00404 0162 +217 +212 165027 029 034 005 00
163430 1401N 06127W 9700 00407 0163 +219 +212 164028 029 032 007 00
163500 1400N 06126W 9700 00407 0162 +217 +212 163026 027 032 008 00
163530 1359N 06125W 9701 00407 0162 +224 +200 159026 027 033 007 00
163600 1358N 06124W 9697 00411 0162 +222 +208 156025 026 033 006 00
163630 1357N 06123W 9698 00411 0164 +220 +211 155026 027 032 006 00
163700 1356N 06122W 9690 00418 0164 +221 +212 155025 026 033 004 00
163730 1355N 06121W 9701 00407 0163 +225 +206 155028 029 033 002 00
163800 1354N 06121W 9696 00413 0166 +221 +212 152026 029 032 001 00
163830 1353N 06120W 9704 00407 0166 +220 +211 152027 028 033 001 00
163900 1352N 06119W 9702 00409 0167 +220 +212 151027 028 032 001 03
163930 1351N 06118W 9690 00419 0166 +220 +213 149028 029 /// /// 03
164000 1353N 06117W 9701 00411 0166 +220 +216 142027 028 031 000 03
164030 1354N 06118W 9705 00406 0166 +220 +213 143029 030 033 002 00
$$
;

[ConvergenceZone]

Chantal is dead?

I definitely don't think Chantal is dead yet, although the NHC did say, "IF" Chantal survives here is what we think will happen, so even they think that her survival is questionable. But hey, it's early July and Chantal doesn't suppose to be existing anyway...

[Jevo]

Speaking of Mike and the good ol' days, man I miss the Talkin Tropics radio show.

Those were good times, I had a lot of fun setting up the interviews with the heavy weights of the weather community. I believe he is going to start another show or podcast soon™. You can always drop him a line on Twitter @watkinstrack

yeah man ! I remember covering RITA with you jevo !

2005 season seems like 1 long day.. Rita was intense.

[artist]

[Aric Dunn]

Recon is showing a very tight pressure gradient. Also, with the lowest pressure around 14.6N 62W, the LLC is still not completely exposed. There are some outflow boundaries shooting out, but that's not the center. The center is just on the edge of the convection and still appears tilted.

yep, and after a little rise in pressure earlier the pressure back down to 1005... maintaining at the very least.

[Aric Dunn]

Those were good times, I had a lot of fun setting up the interviews with the heavy weights of the weather community. I believe he is going to start another show or podcast soon™. You can always drop him a line on Twitter @watkinstrack

yeah man ! I remember covering RITA with you jevo !

2005 season seems like 1 long day.. Rita was intense.

unlike with chantal the models for rita were straight forward.. me and you had the day shift as it passed south of the keys and intensified.

[Jevo]

12z NAVGEM +120 after a short romp over SW FL



12z NAVGEM +132

[artist]

URNT15 KNHC 091649
AF302 0203A CHANTAL HDOB 40 20130709
164100 1356N 06119W 9700 00409 0165 +220 +212 146031 032 034 005 00
164130 1358N 06120W 9701 00409 0166 +220 +215 143030 032 035 005 00
164200 1359N 06120W 9700 00408 0166 +220 +214 146030 031 034 007 00
164230 1401N 06120W 9701 00408 0166 +220 +211 150031 031 035 009 00
164300 1403N 06121W 9695 00414 0168 +216 +215 148030 032 037 010 00
164330 1404N 06121W 9697 00413 0169 +214 +214 147030 031 037 013 00
164400 1404N 06121W 9697 00413 0169 +211 +211 150032 033 045 016 00
164430 1408N 06122W 9696 00412 0169 +210 +210 152037 038 048 019 00
164500 1410N 06123W 9705 00406 0170 +208 +208 155034 038 040 017 00
164530 1411N 06123W 9695 00415 0171 +206 +206 152035 035 040 021 00
164600 1413N 06124W 9697 00413 0171 +208 +206 156036 036 039 018 00
164630 1415N 06124W 9703 00408 0169 +212 +207 153034 036 039 015 00
164700 1417N 06125W 9698 00414 0173 +207 +207 152034 035 043 023 00
164730 1418N 06125W 9696 00418 0174 +211 +211 150033 035 041 017 00
164800 1420N 06126W 9706 00411 0175 +214 +214 151033 034 041 015 00
164830 1422N 06126W 9696 00418 0175 +206 +206 148038 039 045 017 00
164900 1424N 06127W 9704 00409 0175 +208 +208 150038 039 045 018 00
164930 1425N 06127W 9701 00412 0172 +209 +209 148038 040 040 014 00
165000 1427N 06128W 9703 00409 0171 +207 +204 150038 040 042 019 00
165030 1429N 06128W 9690 00418 0172 +198 +198 150040 041 046 027 03
$$

[gatorcane]

There just really is no consistency between runs with these models with track of intensity...if anything they have shifted quite a bit more south in the 12Z....and the GFS and Navy are way south of their runs from yesterday.

NHC has a tough forecast to make on their hands for this one that is for sure.

[Jevo]

12z NAVGEM +156 This should wake up the board

[artist]

[SouthDadeFish]

This pressure gradient is very, very impressive for a storm that looks the way it does on satellite.

[Jevo]

Something of note regarding the NAVGEM, synoptically speaking it is more realistic than the GFS at this point in regards to the breakdown of the ridge.

12z NAVGEM 500mb loop

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... _watl.html

[colangie]

Ready for this years season, seems its going to be active....

[Aric Dunn]

There just really is no consistency between runs with these models with track of intensity...if anything they have shifted quite a bit more south in the 12Z....and the GFS and Navy are way south of their runs from yesterday.

NHC has a tough forecast to make on their hands for this one that is for sure.

no consistency? this the first run of the GFS that showed something different in 4 days.. this is not a trend .. right now the gfs 1z is a outlier and being that chantal is stronger than GFS initialized it and its slightly right of track and that the upper low is still firmly in place.. says this run is bogus