ATL: CHANTAL - Post-Tropical

[quaqualita]

Reporting from the North Coast of the Dominican Republic: Since it looks like almost all action is only on the north side of Chantal, I created this below image overlaying the red and green shades - please correct me if I'm wrong, but most winds and heavy rains are expected to affect only the areas in red over our island, is that correct?




While this will put me here at the north coast in the red area, this would be excellent news for Haiti where flooding always causes huge problems.

If Chantal stays on this projected path while crossing Hispaniola, her center will go right over the highest mountain areas, but most of her northern side with all winds would stay just north of the mountain chains. I think it will be interesting to see how much this will weaken her?

So far it's still sunny and warm here, I guess tomorrow this will change drastically.

For those interested here a site with webcam and windmeter:
http://www.oceandreamcabarete.com/cabar ... ublic.html

[tolakram]

Convection looks to be building on both sides of the LLC now. Like I said last night, overrunning and pulsing should be expected with a storm moving this fast.




live visible loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... umframes=5

[artist]

Reporting from the North Coast of the Dominican Republic: Since it looks like almost all action is only on the north side of Chantal, I created this below image overlaying the red and green shades - please correct me if I'm wrong, but most winds and heavy rains are expected to affect only the areas in red over our island, is that correct?




While this will put me here at the north coast in the red area, this would be excellent news for Haiti where flooding always causes huge problems.

If Chantal stays on this projected path while crossing Hispaniola, her center will go right over the highest mountain areas, but most of her northern side with all winds would stay just north of the mountain chains. I think it will be interesting to see how much this will weaken her?

So far it's still sunny and warm here, I guess tomorrow this will change drastically.

For those interested here a site with webcam and windmeter:
http://www.oceandreamcabarete.com/cabar ... ublic.html

that does appear to be good news for Haiti. Thanks for the link as well. Stay safe and let us know how things go.

[tolakram]

In addition the analyzed shear product shows conditions might have improved a little from this morning.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

[artist]

URNT15 KNHC 091659
AF302 0203A CHANTAL HDOB 41 20130709
165100 1431N 06129W 9714 00394 0170 +196 +196 154044 047 057 036 00
165130 1433N 06129W 9697 00409 0170 +191 +191 153048 049 051 024 00
165200 1434N 06130W 9698 00408 0168 +190 +190 153051 052 050 027 00
165230 1436N 06130W 9698 00408 0168 +193 +193 152050 052 050 020 00
165300 1438N 06131W 9695 00407 0164 +194 +194 153054 056 049 020 00
165330 1440N 06131W 9702 00396 0157 +193 +193 154061 063 056 021 00
165400 1442N 06132W 9696 00391 0143 +202 +190 156070 073 058 017 00
165430 1444N 06133W 9698 00384 0134 +219 +185 157076 077 057 008 03
165500 1446N 06133W 9704 00375 0130 +228 +181 154076 077 057 003 03
165530 1448N 06134W 9696 00392 0142 +219 +181 151070 077 054 004 00
165600 1450N 06134W 9708 00392 0157 +203 +196 144054 063 041 000 00
165630 1452N 06135W 9711 00391 0157 +208 +191 144056 058 043 003 00
165700 1454N 06135W 9700 00401 0159 +208 +191 144056 059 047 001 00
165730 1456N 06136W 9699 00405 0160 +207 +201 142051 053 043 005 00
165800 1458N 06136W 9691 00411 0160 +203 //// 146049 053 043 004 01
165830 1500N 06137W 9707 00396 0158 +209 +209 141045 047 042 004 00
165900 1501N 06137W 9699 00405 0159 +213 +210 136045 048 037 006 00
165930 1503N 06138W 9698 00407 0160 +215 +210 134044 047 042 010 00
170000 1505N 06138W 9703 00400 0163 +201 +200 129051 053 051 015 00
170030 1507N 06139W 9702 00403 0166 +197 +197 127042 051 047 015 00

[artist]

[Aric Dunn]

In addition the analyzed shear product shows conditions might have improved a little from this morning.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

yeah just took a look at all that a little bit ago.. some decrease in shear along its path.. if it drops below 20 then it may have a better chance.. though the shear is not the problem atm.. its what does DR do to it.

[tolakram]

... and, for those somehow convinced it has peaked, any evidence as to why?

Here's the latest recon graphic, showing steadily dropping pressure.

[jlauderdal]

even if it falls apart like it might, it could be quite the rain maker for Florida

This much is a certainty... SW Florida is already waterlogged in spots, too...

South florida has a healthy wave approaching...plenty of precip the next 48 from the wave

[Evil Jeremy]

There just really is no consistency between runs with these models with track of intensity...if anything they have shifted quite a bit more south in the 12Z....and the GFS and Navy are way south of their runs from yesterday.

NHC has a tough forecast to make on their hands for this one that is for sure.

no consistency? this the first run of the GFS that showed something different in 4 days.. this is not a trend .. right now the gfs 1z is a outlier and being that chantal is stronger than GFS initialized it and its slightly right of track and that the upper low is still firmly in place.. says this run is bogus

Agreed. Lets not make rash judgenents based on just one run of one model.

[floridasun78]

looking like shear drop what map show i head this map soso with real shear http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

[CrazyC83]

Latest data supports a 60 kt intensity.

[torrea40]

Latest data supports a 60 kt intensity.

And Best track.??

[tolakram]

Going back a few posts.

I don't think GFS loses it, it just takes it over a big chunk of Cuba and weakens it. Showing a hit in SE Florida then looks to ride up the east coast, inland.

[lester]

Latest data supports a 60 kt intensity.

I'd go with 55 kts, but that's just me being conservative lol

[Aric Dunn]

Latest data supports a 60 kt intensity.

I'd go with 55 kts, but that's just me being conservative lol

yeah there be a biased adjustment.. probably 55kt

[artist]

URNT15 KNHC 091709
AF302 0203A CHANTAL HDOB 42 20130709
170100 1508N 06139W 9698 00407 0165 +202 //// 119041 043 039 008 01
170130 1510N 06140W 9700 00403 0160 +211 +202 116048 050 038 007 00
170200 1512N 06140W 9696 00408 0159 +225 +196 116048 050 037 002 03
170230 1514N 06141W 9703 00400 0156 +230 +194 116045 048 040 002 00
170300 1515N 06141W 9697 00406 0157 +226 +198 115049 050 037 004 00
170330 1517N 06142W 9708 00397 //// +202 //// 112046 050 037 004 05
170400 1518N 06143W 9698 00405 0157 +213 +197 108049 052 043 003 03
170430 1518N 06145W 9707 00396 0157 +222 +198 109051 052 043 002 03
170500 1516N 06146W 9696 00406 0154 +230 +191 112051 053 039 003 00
170530 1515N 06148W 9701 00400 0154 +225 +194 108049 053 040 001 00
170600 1514N 06149W 9701 00400 0154 +225 +192 115046 048 041 004 00
170630 1513N 06150W 9703 00396 0155 +210 +203 115046 048 042 004 00
170700 1512N 06151W 9686 00415 0158 +213 +204 123047 057 042 005 00
170730 1511N 06152W 9700 00398 0154 +216 +197 123056 058 043 001 00
170800 1510N 06153W 9703 00395 0153 +215 +190 124055 058 043 001 00
170830 1509N 06154W 9698 00398 0152 +212 +191 126055 057 045 007 03
170900 1507N 06156W 9696 00397 0151 +211 +191 125056 057 046 002 00
170930 1506N 06157W 9699 00395 0148 +210 +201 126053 056 046 000 00
171000 1505N 06158W 9692 00398 0146 +214 +203 131054 055 044 003 00
171030 1504N 06159W 9706 00385 0144 +219 +201 134052 054 044 002 00
$$
;

[adam0983]

Storms that are moving are the speed that Tropical Storm Chantal is moving makes it very difficult for the models to get a handle on what the conditions will be in the future and being that is so early in the season also makes it very difficult for the models. Not a forecast just an opinion.

[Aric Dunn]

anyone saving the radar images and making a long loop ?

[northjaxpro]

... and, for those somehow convinced it has peaked, any evidence as to why?

Here's the latest recon graphic, showing steadily dropping pressure.

http://oi40.tinypic.com/s6rgqu.jpg

It was really silly and immature of those who proclaimed Chantal dead. The Recon data and the NHC will have the final say as to if we can get Dr. Bones McCoy to come out and make his famous proclamation. But, I have a eerie feeling it is going to be quite awhile before we see Bones making an appearance.