ATL: CHANTAL - Post-Tropical

[artist]

[floridasun78]

http://www.barbadosweather.org/RadarPro ... 250KMCAPPI their you go

[ScottNAtlanta]

I see nothing wrong with it other than the color scheme is odd.. the wobbles are normal typical of systems with lop sided convection. the center will get pulled everytime convection fires

I guess its more difficult for those of us that are colorblind...lol...I always forget that other people dont always see what I see (try navigating multiple model tracks on the spaghetti plots when you're color blind as well...a headache waiting to happen)

[gatorcane]

There just really is no consistency between runs with these models with track of intensity...if anything they have shifted quite a bit more south in the 12Z....and the GFS and Navy are way south of their runs from yesterday.

NHC has a tough forecast to make on their hands for this one that is for sure.

no consistency? this the first run of the GFS that showed something different in 4 days.. this is not a trend .. right now the gfs 1z is a outlier and being that chantal is stronger than GFS initialized it and its slightly right of track and that the upper low is still firmly in place.. says this run is bogus

Agreed. Lets not make rash judgenents based on just one run of one model.

GFS had it heading towards JAX after moving north just east of the Bahamas for 18Z run last night. Now it has it passing south of Cuba and moving into the FL Keys / South Florida missing Hispaniola to the south. I say that is not consistent at all.

[CrazyC83]

Bones is on standby for now.

Especially when data shows it is much closer to being a hurricane than dead.

[DESTRUCTION5]

There just really is no consistency between runs with these models with track of intensity...if anything they have shifted quite a bit more south in the 12Z....and the GFS and Navy are way south of their runs from yesterday.

NHC has a tough forecast to make on their hands for this one that is for sure.

no consistency? this the first run of the GFS that showed something different in 4 days.. this is not a trend .. right now the gfs 1z is a outlier and being that chantal is stronger than GFS initialized it and its slightly right of track and that the upper low is still firmly in place.. says this run is bogus

Agreed. Lets not make rash judgenents based on just one run of one model.

To be fair the 06z put a kibash on her too...as did EURO never giving her a look...FWD speed may be her demise here in next 48 hrs...maybe not...time will tell..

[tolakram]

Here's the July 7th 12z run. GFS is wobbling back and forth, unable to decide on the ridge, IMO.



You can view a number of past runs using this site: http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

[wxman57]

Looks as pathetic as Ernesto did when it crossed the eastern Caribbean last year. Note all the outflow boundaries to the west and northwest now. Interesting that the 12Z GFS weakens it to a wave and keeps it south of Cuba.

[Aric Dunn]

no consistency? this the first run of the GFS that showed something different in 4 days.. this is not a trend .. right now the gfs 1z is a outlier and being that chantal is stronger than GFS initialized it and its slightly right of track and that the upper low is still firmly in place.. says this run is bogus

Agreed. Lets not make rash judgenents based on just one run of one model.

GFS had it heading towards JAX after moving north just east of the Bahamas for 18Z run last night. Now it has it passing south of Cuba and moving into the FL Keys / South Florida missing Hispaniola to the south. I say that is not consistent at all.

Your missing the point... this the first run that showed a different synoptic setup. before it had not changed in general thinking for days and had great consistency you cannot take one run and say its not. especially since the factors that should lead to the turn north are already in place. this run of the gfs is a outlier.

[artist]

URNT15 KNHC 091719
AF302 0203A CHANTAL HDOB 43 20130709
171100 1503N 06200W 9689 00401 0144 +213 +207 128052 054 043 005 00
171130 1502N 06201W 9707 00381 0143 +215 +203 129055 058 046 004 00
171200 1501N 06202W 9699 00390 0142 +217 +194 136062 066 051 002 00
171230 1500N 06203W 9703 00379 0134 +219 +193 141068 068 051 003 00
171300 1459N 06204W 9700 00379 0130 +223 +199 138066 068 053 001 00
171330 1458N 06205W 9699 00380 0130 +220 +202 136065 066 051 003 03
171400 1457N 06206W 9696 00381 0130 +212 +209 132063 065 050 004 05
171430 1456N 06207W 9707 00370 0128 +215 +213 135060 063 049 002 05
171500 1455N 06208W 9703 00373 0126 +218 +211 135061 063 049 002 00
171530 1454N 06209W 9703 00370 0124 +218 +210 137062 063 049 001 00
171600 1453N 06210W 9699 00370 0120 +220 +204 139064 064 048 003 03
171630 1452N 06211W 9704 00363 0117 +221 +202 143064 065 051 005 03
171700 1451N 06212W 9701 00366 0117 +225 +201 142062 064 051 002 00
171730 1450N 06213W 9696 00373 0120 +216 +212 138060 062 049 001 03
171800 1449N 06215W 9699 00368 0117 +219 +206 142058 060 049 001 03
171830 1448N 06216W 9695 00368 0116 +218 +210 145055 057 049 000 03
171900 1447N 06217W 9703 00367 0118 +219 +219 147050 054 047 003 05
171930 1446N 06218W 9699 00372 0118 +223 +214 147051 052 044 000 00
172000 1446N 06219W 9699 00366 0111 +216 //// 152049 050 041 001 01
172030 1445N 06220W 9703 00357 0106 +226 +216 157047 049 044 003 00
$$

[SouthFloridawx]

I like following the 850mb Vorticity.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cgi?time=2013070912&field=850mb+Vorticity&hour=Animation

[Aric Dunn]

with all that said.. it still has to survive DR.. it may end up getting caught in the high terrain and die like debbie 2001

[floridasun78]

look like we looking wrong data wxman is looking right data

[artist]

[gatorcane]

Looks as pathetic as Ernesto did when it crossed the eastern Caribbean last year. Note all the outflow boundaries to the west and northwest now. Interesting that the 12Z GFS weakens it to a wave and keeps it south of Cuba.

Yeah it is looking bad. I made that comment earlier today. Granted it is not a wave but certainly looked better yesterday!

The last GFS run is definitely interesting and the 12Z NAVGEM shows something similar...could be a trend. We will wait for future runs.

[meriland23]

"Maximum Flight Level Wind: 70kts (~ 80.6mph) which was observed 47 nautical miles (54 statute miles) to the ENE (60°) from the flight level center at 12:41:00Z"


....wow....

[meriland23]

recon recorded a maximum FL wind of 70kts (~ 80.6mph) ?? really?! Is it going to be upgraded to hurricane status now?

[floridasun78]

is plane reporting this as weak ts or open wave? wxman say it look bad that it bad shape?? i want see plane see same as wxman

[ScottNAtlanta]

Looks like recon will be near the center here shortly for another pass

[CopyGator]

Was that a max 1 minute wind? And don't the winds get reduced from FL?