ATL: CHANTAL - Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

I wonder what the GFS says at 12Z about Chantal and the storm behind it. I think it says Chantal will break up and die somewhere near the Bahamas and that its follower will go fish but I can't tell for sure because the site is down ( mag .ncep.noaa.gov). Have others in this forum had a problem accessing GFS and NAM?

There has been a problem with the NCEP site. They released an update that can be read on the Global Model Runs Discussion thread at Talking Tropics forum.

[ROCK]

I expect even more west shift as the storm is smashed by DR and then ends up tracking with the low level flow for a time until (if ever) it redevelopes....IMO

oh and I joke about the NAVGEM a lot but you have to give it some credit....so far it has been pretty good with Chantal track wise...

[ROCK]

those outflow boundaries are usually a sign of weakening but this is not the case....this is an abnormal storm!

[Decomdoug]

The action is cranking up in PB County

"Chances greater that Chantal will create hazardous conditions off Palm Beach County shores"

By Sonja Isger - The Palm Beach Post

http://www.palmbeachpost.com/news/weath ... n-i/nYjgJ/

[Florida1118]

Oh Ohhhhhhhh Chantal on Rainbow Loop ........Poof..

Can you elaborate a little more? You mean the warming cloud tops?

Exactly, the cloudssss.

That's been happening for days. They'll redevelop as they have been doing...Waxing and Waning.

[adam0983]

I expect a huge shift west at the 5pm advisory and winds to be 70 MPH. Just an opinion not a forecast

[wxwatcher4405]

I expect even more west shift as the storm is smashed by DR and then ends up tracking with the low level flow for a time until (if ever) it redevelopes....IMO

oh and I joke about the NAVGEM a lot but you have to give it some credit....so far it has been pretty good with Chantal track wise...

im beginning to wander if it is really going to take that big of a turn north?

[LaBreeze]

18z model suite put the NHC on the right of the consensus. These latest runs don't take it over Hispaniola much at all, just the Tiburon Peninsula of Haiti, and then over eastern Cuba.

The Tiburon Peninsula and eastern Cuba still have some pretty rough terrain - granted not like going directly over Hispaniola, but mountainous nonetheless.

['CaneFreak]

Given that a lot of the models are based off of a fluke run of the GFS, I would not pay much attention to this 12Z model suite.

[MortisFL]

No model consistency at all...earlier the models thought crossing FL. Now it's along the east coast heading north/northwest. Time will tell.

[TheAustinMan]

Here's a little loop of Chantal moving through the Lessers from last night to this morning from BMS satellite imagery.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XNBqBRxYRzs&feature=youtu.be[/youtube]

[gatorcane]

Looking at the WV loop this afternoon, you can see the Giant ULL near Southern Florida / Bahamas. Look at all the westerly shear that is waiting for Chantal in the Central Northern Caribbean and Southern Bahamas area. You can see the cloud tops moving briskly from west to east near Jamaica and Haiti. No wonder why the GFS and ECMWF don't do much with this system especially when you combine the shear it could run into with land interaction.

The ULL doesn't look like it is going to weaken anytime soon.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-wv.html

[jlauderdal]

I expect even more west shift as the storm is smashed by DR and then ends up tracking with the low level flow for a time until (if ever) it redevelopes....IMO

oh and I joke about the NAVGEM a lot but you have to give it some credit....so far it has been pretty good with Chantal track wise...

we all laugh at the Canadian but it was good with our first storm of the season too, strange times

['CaneFreak]

For the first 48 hours? Yes

After 48 hours? I highly doubt they will change it much.

18z..

Another possible westward shift to nhc track later today.

[meriland23]

seems possible it misses hisp all together and makes its way in that gap between that and cuba..

[caneseddy]

I expect even more west shift as the storm is smashed by DR and then ends up tracking with the low level flow for a time until (if ever) it redevelopes....IMO

oh and I joke about the NAVGEM a lot but you have to give it some credit....so far it has been pretty good with Chantal track wise...

we all laugh at the Canadian but it was good with our first storm of the season too, strange times

Actually, the NAVGEM used to be the NOGAPS...Canadian is showing the same as the other ones, taking it up to the SE

If the NAVGEM verifies, then

[Janie2006]

Given that a lot of the models are based off of a fluke run of the GFS, I would not pay much attention to this 12Z model suite.

I'm not overly bothered with it, to be honest. Several gremlins there, or so it seems.

[robbielyn]

that ull is sure huge and it doesn't seem to be in hurry to get out of the way. I think shear and land interaction as it shows most spaghetti models having chantel cross western DR and Haiti and eastern cuba. so if this can hang on after all the crazy obstacles, what will the rest of the season bode? she got gusto that's for sure. dry air not as much of a factor eventhough north and south of chantel still has dry air but chantal continues to moisten environment around her. sheer and mountains going be her formidable enemies.

[Bocadude85]

Tropical storm conditions being mentioned by the national weather service in Miami.

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?site=mfl&zmx=1.0416666666666667&zmy=1.0416666666666667&map.x=280&map.y=44#.Udxkk__D9es

[Hurricane Alexis]

Looking at the WV loop this afternoon, you can see the Giant ULL near Southern Florida / Bahamas. Look at all the westerly shear that is waiting for Chantal in the Central Northern Caribbean and Southern Bahamas area. You can see the cloud tops moving briskly from west to east near Jamaica and Haiti. No wonder why the GFS and ECMWF don't do much with this system especially when you combine the shear it could run into with land interaction.

The ULL doesn't look like it is going to weaken anytime soon.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-wv.html

Miami NWS forecasts it to dissipate by wed night or thursday.