ATL: CHANTAL - Post-Tropical

[Hurricane Alexis]

Curiously enough, the ULL just off the coast of FL is heading about 265 to 260 if my eyes are not deceiving me. I wonder if this will affect the shear situation for Chantal at all. It also does not show signs of dissipation which was expected to happen tomorrow at some point. All critical keys on what happens next.

The GFS dissipates the low as it moves into FL tomorrow or Thursday.

[Blown Away]

The 18z models shifted modestly to the west and if Chantal follows the NHC hugging TVCN consensus track, she will miss the heart of Hispaniola to the west and go through the Winward passage...Seems the models that take Chantal near North FL/GA/SC move over the east half of Hispaniola and gain more latitude before meeting the ridge...If Chantal moves over the west half of Hispaniola she should meet the ridge at a lower latitude and be a problem for the southern half of the Fl peninsula...So much land interaction before/after Hispaniola I can't see Chantal more than a TS...JMHO's

[capepoint]

I wouldn't put a great deal of faith in the exact model tracks past the DR. A lot depends on what happens with the land interaction. A little land-induced wobble can mean a lot of miles later on down the road, assuming she maintains intensity. Use the models right now to watch the surrounding set-up after she crosses or passes the DR. It's way too soon to know if she will even survive the land interaction of the DR, much less if she will hit Fl, go into the GOM, or ride up the EC.

[Evil Jeremy]

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...
AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS.

[galaxy401]

Slowing down now! 29mph to 26.

[floridasun78]

countdown to 5pm avd it look like bit late maybe new watch and warring

[robbielyn]

if DR don't get her Haiti will. if Haiti leaves anything eastern cuba wont.

[Hurricane_Luis]

5:00 PM AST Tue Jul 9
Location: 15.2°N 63.7°W
Moving: WNW at 26 mph
Min pressure: 1006 mb
Max sustained: 65 mph

Finally slowing down, only by 3 mph.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

if DR don't get her Haiti will. if Haiti leaves anything eastern cuba wont.

Let's hope we don't see a more significant shift to the west, as she will have more time over warm water, and then having to just cross central or western Cuba is survivable for a storm.

[Evil Jeremy]

Big shift north in the cone for days 4 and 5. Georgia and South Carolina now in the cone, as well as most of the Florida Peninsula.

[hurricanekid416]

I still have strong doubts that it will survive the greater Antilles

[Recurve]

With the latest forecasts, it seems Chantal could be sitting over the Abacos for 24 hours or more. May not be stronger than a TS, but could play havoc with power, communications and boats. Lots of sailors travel to the Abacos for race week in early July, this year RTIA ends July 11, a lot of sailboats may be headed back to Florida in rough weather.

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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[gatorcane]

Big shift north in the cone for days 4 and 5. Georgia and South Carolina now in the cone, as well as most of the Florida Peninsula.

Funny thing is that if you loop the 5-day cone archive...it really has moved very little since Chantal formed...so the NHC forecast has been VERY consistent despite all of the inconsistencies between the models the past couple of days.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2013/CH ... hics.shtml

[Aric Dunn]

Big shift north in the cone for days 4 and 5. Georgia and South Carolina now in the cone, as well as most of the Florida Peninsula.

appears they are not buying the gfs either...

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032013
500 PM AST TUE JUL 09 2013

...CHANTAL HEADING FOR HISPANIOLA...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.2N 63.7W
ABOUT 270 MI...440 KM SE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 470 MI...755 KM ESE OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 26 MPH...43 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...
AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED TO INCLUDE THE ENTIRE
COAST OF HAITI.

THE GOVERNMENT OF BARBADOS HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR DOMINICA.

THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR MARTINIQUE AND GUADELOUPE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BARAHONA TO SAMANA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO
* ENTIRE COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
* ENTIRE COAST OF HAITI
* TURKS AND CAICOS
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* VIEQUES AND CULEBRA
* CENTRAL BAHAMAS

INTERESTS IN EASTERN CUBA AND THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF CHANTAL.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.7 WEST. CHANTAL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 26 MPH...43 KM/H. THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH A
GRADUAL DECREASE IN THE FORWARD SPEED. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF CHANTAL WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE LESSER
ANTILLES TONIGHT...AND IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR OVER THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. CHANTAL IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS ON THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THESE WINDS ARE CONFINED TO A SMALL AREA TO THE EAST THE
CENTER. CHANTAL IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE
REACHING HISPANIOLA.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM
TO THE WEST OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SHOULD REACH PUERTO RICO TONIGHT OR
EARLY WEDNESDAY...AND REACH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WEDNESDAY
MORNING. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN HAITI BY LATE
WEDNESDAY.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE...ACCOMPANIED BY DANGEROUS WAVES...WILL
RAISE WATER LEVELS BY THE FOLLOWING AMOUNTS ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...

PUERTO RICO....1 TO 3 FT
SOUTHERN AND WESTERN HISPANIOLA...2 TO 4 FT
NORTHERN HISPANIOLA...1 TO 3 FT
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND TURKS AND CAICOS....1 TO 3 FT

RAINFALL...CHANTAL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
2 TO 4 INCHES OVER THE LEEWARD AND WINDWARD ISLANDS...WITH 3 TO 6
INCHES EXPECTED OVER PUERTO RICO...THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND
PORTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS
OF 8 INCHES POSSIBLE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA




TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032013
500 PM AST TUE JUL 09 2013

CHANTAL PRODUCED TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ALONG ITS PATH THROUGH
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS THIS MORNING. THE HIGHEST OBSERVED WIND
GUST...68 KT...WAS REPORTED BY METEO-FRANCE AT LAMENTIN AIRPORT IN
MARTINIQUE. ALTHOUGH THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION CONTINUES TO BE
RAGGED...THE CYCLONE HAS A VERY SMALL CENTER OF CIRCULATION AS
INDICATED BY AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT...WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY HAS BEEN SET AT 55 KNOTS. ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE
WINDS IS FORECAST BEFORE CHANTAL CROSSES HISPANIOLA...WHERE
WEAKENING IS EXPECTED. AFTER THAT...THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT
PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE...BUT COULD ALLOW MODEST RESTRENGTHENING AS
THE CYCLONE MOVES ACROSS THE BAHAMAS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS
VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

CHANTAL CONTINUES RACING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT
23 KNOTS...STEERED BY STRONG EASTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AS THE STORM MOVES OVER THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND HISPANIOLA...THE HIGH TO THE NORTH IS
FORECAST TO WEAKEN. THE CYCLONE SHOULD THEN TURN MORE TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH
DEVELOPS ALONG THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST AND THE STEERING
CURRENTS WEAKEN. THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE SHIFTED WESTWARD IN THE LAST
RUN AND CONSEQUENTLY...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WAS ADJUSTED IN THAT
DIRECTION...BUT NOT AS FAR AS THE MODEL CONSENSUS. IF THIS WESTWARD
MODEL TREND CONTINUES IN THE NEXT CYCLE...I WILL NOT BE SURPRISED
IF ANOTHER WESTWARD SHIFT WILL BE REQUIRED.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/2100Z 15.2N 63.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 10/0600Z 16.5N 66.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 10/1800Z 18.0N 70.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 11/0600Z 20.0N 73.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 11/1800Z 22.0N 75.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 12/1800Z 26.0N 77.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 13/1800Z 28.0N 78.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 14/1800Z 31.1N 80.0W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[gatorcane]

Big shift north in the cone for days 4 and 5. Georgia and South Carolina now in the cone, as well as most of the Florida Peninsula.

appears they are not buying the gfs either...

sounds like they are close though...depends on the 18Z run and if so I see them pulling the trigger and shifting west:

THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WAS ADJUSTED IN THAT
DIRECTION...BUT NOT AS FAR AS THE MODEL CONSENSUS. IF THIS WESTWARD
MODEL TREND CONTINUES IN THE NEXT CYCLE...I WILL NOT BE SURPRISED
IF ANOTHER WESTWARD SHIFT WILL BE REQUIRED.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 2104.shtml?

[Evil Jeremy]

THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE SHIFTED WESTWARD IN THE LAST
RUN AND CONSEQUENTLY...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WAS ADJUSTED IN THAT
DIRECTION...BUT NOT AS FAR AS THE MODEL CONSENSUS. IF THIS WESTWARD
MODEL TREND CONTINUES IN THE NEXT CYCLE...I WILL NOT BE SURPRISED
IF ANOTHER WESTWARD SHIFT WILL BE REQUIRED.

[SFLcane]

THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE SHIFTED WESTWARD IN THE LAST
RUN AND CONSEQUENTLY...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WAS ADJUSTED IN THAT
DIRECTION...BUT NOT AS FAR AS THE MODEL CONSENSUS. IF THIS WESTWARD
MODEL TREND CONTINUES IN THE NEXT CYCLE...I WILL NOT BE SURPRISED
IF ANOTHER WESTWARD SHIFT WILL BE REQUIRED.

[Tireman4]

THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE SHIFTED WESTWARD IN THE LAST
RUN AND CONSEQUENTLY...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WAS ADJUSTED IN THAT
DIRECTION...BUT NOT AS FAR AS THE MODEL CONSENSUS. IF THIS WESTWARD
MODEL TREND CONTINUES IN THE NEXT CYCLE...I WILL NOT BE SURPRISED
IF ANOTHER WESTWARD SHIFT WILL BE REQUIRED.

Interesting days ahead for all who are watching this....hummm

[SouthFloridawx]

Are we able to assume that since the storm slowed down, the ridge to the North of her is beginning to weaken?