ATL: CHANTAL - Post-Tropical

[Blown Away]

THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE SHIFTED WESTWARD IN THE LAST
RUN AND CONSEQUENTLY...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WAS ADJUSTED IN THAT
DIRECTION...BUT NOT AS FAR AS THE MODEL CONSENSUS. IF THIS WESTWARD
MODEL TREND CONTINUES IN THE NEXT CYCLE...I WILL NOT BE SURPRISED
IF ANOTHER WESTWARD SHIFT WILL BE REQUIRED.

IMO, Chantal crosses on W side of Haiti that angle should brush/landfall SFL, but keep in mind as a weak TS...If Chantal stalls in SE Bahamas instead of NW Bahamas maybe that could allow for more intensification...Just a hunch

[Evil Jeremy]

Are we able to assume that since the storm slowed down, the ridge to the North of her is beginning to weaken?

Not sure. Could just be the storm reorganizing. A decrease from 29mph to 26mph is not really much of a decrease.

[MortisFL]

It will all come back to interaction with Dominican Republic and forward speed. It should be interesting next couple days. NHC seems confident enough to keep it a low grade TS throughout all the mess Chantal might encounter.

[floridasun78]

could she be open wave what my weatherman say storm dead down alot

[artist]

[SouthFloridawx]

It doesn't look like it has that classic Tropical Storm look, but if you look the MIMIC animation, it's clearly there.

[TexasF6]

I see a fist trying to come out! But still, she bears watching.....

[Hurricaneman]

This may be temporarily weakening , but with it moving slightly slower it could really get its act together quickly with farther slowing and a good convective burst over the center

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[Alyono]

the LLC was not exactly well defined on the final pass through the center.

This may open up in a few hours with the divergence occurring. May not help Haiti, however, as they will still receive horrible flooding

[Aric Dunn]

12hr 18z gfs

about 50 mi farhter north..

[capepoint]

5pm official track still up the EC into SC as a weak TS. NHC playing a hunch, or just waiting for more information before plotting the westard turn near FL? Who knows at this point.

[artist]

17:45 UTC

20:45 UTC

[Hurricane Andrew]

Doesn't look weakening to me.

[USTropics]

The discussion for 5pm indicates they will continue to shift the cone towards the west if the models continue to show a westward output.

[Evil Jeremy]

5pm official track still up the EC into SC as a weak TS. NHC playing a hunch, or just waiting for more information before plotting the westard turn near FL? Who knows at this point.

The later of the two:

THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE SHIFTED WESTWARD IN THE LAST
RUN AND CONSEQUENTLY...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WAS ADJUSTED IN THAT
DIRECTION...BUT NOT AS FAR AS THE MODEL CONSENSUS. IF THIS WESTWARD
MODEL TREND CONTINUES IN THE NEXT CYCLE...I WILL NOT BE SURPRISED
IF ANOTHER WESTWARD SHIFT WILL BE REQUIRED.

[Aric Dunn]

hr 30 existing the north coast of DR looks like its back to the original run.. 12z appears to be a n outlier.




by comparison.. 12z

[Hurricaneman]

Doesn't look weakening to me.

Systems like this can look great just to find out the center is out in front of the MLC like in this case

[floridasun78]

17:45 UTC

20:45 UTC

what trying say artist?

[SouthFloridawx]

Ridge still appears to be in tact with a break over Florida.

[artist]

just a comparison of then and now. I will be glad when recon gets back in tonight so we have a better idea.