ATL: CHANTAL - Post-Tropical

[Dave]

I'm on too Jeremy if you want to take the graphics or anytime you want a break...will be here watching.

[Evil Jeremy]

I'm on too Jeremy if you want to take the graphics or anytime you want a break...will be here watching.

How about I do images (and keep updating the first post of this thread in case anyone still finds it useful) and you take the HDOBs?

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 092256
AF306 0303A CHANTAL HDOB 02 20130709
224800 1734N 06429W 8457 01602 0173 +165 +129 110046 047 /// /// 03
224830 1733N 06428W 8454 01605 0172 +165 +127 115049 050 /// /// 03
224900 1732N 06427W 8454 01604 0171 +166 +113 117051 052 /// /// 03
224930 1732N 06426W 8455 01603 0172 +161 +122 116050 051 /// /// 03
225000 1731N 06425W 8456 01603 0174 +160 +125 116049 050 /// /// 03
225030 1731N 06424W 8456 01601 0173 +160 +126 115049 049 /// /// 03
225100 1730N 06423W 8458 01598 0173 +158 +129 116048 049 /// /// 03
225130 1729N 06422W 8455 01602 0174 +155 +133 116046 047 /// /// 03
225200 1728N 06420W 8458 01599 0174 +156 +131 115046 047 /// /// 03
225230 1728N 06419W 8453 01604 0174 +155 +131 117047 048 /// /// 03
225300 1727N 06418W 8456 01602 0176 +155 +136 116047 047 /// /// 03
225330 1726N 06417W 8460 01596 0176 +155 +135 117047 048 /// /// 03
225400 1726N 06416W 8450 01607 0175 +153 +133 118047 047 /// /// 03
225430 1725N 06415W 8457 01601 0172 +159 +124 119047 048 /// /// 03
225500 1724N 06414W 8455 01602 0171 +162 +123 121046 047 /// /// 03
225530 1724N 06413W 8455 01601 0169 +160 +121 122045 046 /// /// 03
225600 1723N 06412W 8455 05789 //// +164 +121 124045 045 /// /// 03
225630 1722N 06410W 8457 01604 0173 +165 +119 124045 046 /// /// 03
225700 1722N 06409W 8454 01606 0174 +160 +129 122045 047 /// /// 03
225730 1721N 06408W 8456 01603 0174 +162 +122 125045 046 /// /// 03
$$
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[Aric Dunn]

THe circ should just on the edge of the convection developing in the middle of the dying old convection...

[Hurricane Alexis]

So it's ok if I let my guard down here in Miami?

[Evil Jeremy]

So it's ok if I let my guard down here in Miami?

Not yet. Never let your guard down if you are in the cone.


Anyways, tonight's recon mission just took off, and it should not take long for us to get some data on Tropical Storm Chantal. You can follow along in the recon thread, and I will also be providing updates on the mission in the first post of the "Recon Discussion" thread, linked below. If you want a quick summary of the mission as it happens (in laymans terms) without wanting to decode all the data, just check here!
viewtopic.php?f=59&t=115204&p=2316786#p2316786

[Miami Storm Tracker]

So it's ok if I let my guard down here in Miami?

I live here and I would not, anytime you have a storm to your south and east of you keep watching.

[Aric Dunn]

center should be right about 15n 64w in that area.

[ozonepete]

So it's ok if I let my guard down here in Miami?

Oh no! I know I said central Florida and north but you are way too close to there to let your guard down, and well, you saw what the other guys said. Definitely keep an eye on this until it has passed east of you. That's what I would do.

[Dave]

00
URNT15 KNHC 092306
AF306 0303A CHANTAL HDOB 03 20130709
225800 1720N 06407W 8427 01632 0172 +164 +116 125047 047 /// /// 03
225830 1720N 06406W 8428 01635 0172 +164 +119 124045 046 /// /// 03
225900 1719N 06405W 8432 01628 0172 +166 +117 125045 045 /// /// 03
225930 1718N 06404W 8432 01631 0171 +170 +110 125044 044 /// /// 03
230000 1717N 06403W 8432 01630 0174 +163 +123 123045 045 /// /// 03
230030 1716N 06402W 8432 01628 0171 +165 +116 124046 046 /// /// 03
230100 1715N 06401W 8433 01625 0172 +164 +111 124047 048 033 000 00
230130 1715N 06400W 8426 01632 0175 +159 +118 125048 049 033 000 00
230200 1714N 06359W 8430 01630 0175 +160 +119 125048 049 031 000 00
230230 1713N 06358W 8431 01630 0176 +159 +123 124048 049 031 000 00
230300 1712N 06357W 8425 01633 0175 +159 +120 124047 048 032 000 00
230330 1712N 06356W 8434 01626 0173 +165 +113 125046 047 031 000 00
230400 1711N 06354W 8429 01632 0171 +166 +112 126044 045 031 000 00
230430 1710N 06353W 8430 01629 0173 +166 +116 127046 046 032 000 00
230500 1710N 06352W 8428 01631 0172 +165 +116 127045 046 033 000 00
230530 1709N 06351W 8432 01630 0174 +164 +126 127046 046 032 000 00
230600 1708N 06350W 8425 01637 0175 +160 +130 128045 046 033 000 03
230630 1708N 06349W 8433 01628 0176 +156 +133 128045 046 034 000 00
230700 1708N 06347W 8429 01630 0180 +151 +141 130044 045 034 000 03
230730 1707N 06346W 8432 01630 0177 +157 +127 133046 047 029 000 00
$$
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[Cyclenall]

Usually that is not a good sign wrt to intensification, is it not?

It depends. If the outflow boundary and all of the area behind it quickly erupts with deep convection (as has been happening with Chantal today) then it doesn't mean anything. It's when outflow boundaries get produced and no new convection fires up near them that one should suspect dry air is winning out.

Thanks for explaining that one, I wondered why I'd see outflow boundaries and an increase in deep convection or maintenance of it. It was always stated that OFB are a bad thing in these TC's so those 2 types makes sense. TS Chantal is the king of OFBs...haven't seen such a display in a TC ever I think. Chantal is becoming even more crazy, weird evolution.

Now I'm starting to think she misses Hispaniola altogether to the south, unless it does one of those huge jumps like Isaac did last year.

[ozonepete]

center should be right about 15n 64w in that area.

That's what I have. Boy that's really embedded in the convection if we are correct.

[torrea40]

center should be right about 15n 64w in that area.

That's what I have. Boy that's really embedded in the convection if we are correct.

If for that reason change the route.???

[Aric Dunn]

center should be right about 15n 64w in that area.

That's what I have. Boy that's really embedded in the convection if we are correct.

well that little tiny area of convection lol means there is still some convergence in there..

[ozonepete]

Usually that is not a good sign wrt to intensification, is it not?

It depends. If the outflow boundary and all of the area behind it quickly erupts with deep convection (as has been happening with Chantal today) then it doesn't mean anything. It's when outflow boundaries get produced and no new convection fires up near them that one should suspect dry air is winning out.

Thanks for explaining that one, I wondered why I'd see outflow boundaries and an increase in deep convection or maintenance of it. It was always stated that OFB are a bad thing in these TC's so those 2 types makes sense. TS Chantal is the king of OFBs...haven't seen such a display in a TC ever I think. Chantal is becoming even more crazy, weird evolution.

Now I'm starting to think she misses Hispaniola altogether to the south, unless it does one of those huge jumps like Isaac did last year.

You are welcome. As far as track, trust the NHC on track, because they use model consensus with added human insight, and the models are really good at track now. I rarely ever question track anymore; you wind up the loser. Intensity is still everyone's game, but you will rarely ever outguess NHC on track. This is going right over DR/Haiti.

[Dave]

How to read the hdobs that we are posting on the main Recon thread...A quick tutorial of what it all means....

viewtopic.php?f=29&t=85603&st=0&sk=t&sd=a

[ROCK]

where are all my NAVGEM fans!!!

18Z NAVGEM---GOM into Galveston...time to board up..

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

[Evil Jeremy]

[ROCK]

you all know that the NAVGEM is not that far fetch as it may seem. A disrupted system would trend more west with the low level flow than feel a weakness from the trof as would a deeper system.....just saying....

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 092316
AF306 0303A CHANTAL HDOB 04 20130709
230800 1706N 06345W 8432 01626 0176 +157 +127 132046 046 029 000 00
230830 1705N 06345W 8424 01636 0177 +155 +129 132046 046 029 000 00
230900 1704N 06344W 8432 01628 0177 +154 +130 132046 046 031 000 00
230930 1704N 06342W 8428 01630 0173 +161 +126 134047 048 030 000 00
231000 1703N 06341W 8428 01635 0171 +165 +121 132047 048 032 000 00
231030 1702N 06340W 8433 01629 0172 +165 +122 132044 045 032 000 00
231100 1702N 06339W 8429 01635 0173 +165 +123 132043 044 034 000 00
231130 1701N 06338W 8429 01631 0174 +165 +126 133041 042 033 000 00
231200 1700N 06337W 8429 01633 0173 +164 +126 129043 044 033 001 00
231230 1659N 06336W 8426 01635 0172 +167 +124 132042 043 034 000 00
231300 1659N 06335W 8433 01636 0177 +165 +124 131041 042 033 001 03
231330 1657N 06335W 8428 01633 0173 +165 +125 132040 041 029 000 00
231400 1656N 06335W 8428 01633 0172 +161 +128 131040 040 029 000 00
231430 1654N 06336W 8433 01625 0172 +164 +124 131042 042 029 000 00
231500 1653N 06336W 8430 01627 0171 +161 +131 130041 042 031 000 00
231530 1651N 06336W 8426 01632 0171 +161 +128 131041 041 031 000 00
231600 1650N 06337W 8431 01630 0171 +162 +125 130041 041 031 000 00
231630 1649N 06337W 8429 01630 0172 +160 +128 131041 042 030 000 00
231700 1647N 06337W 8429 01631 0173 +157 +125 133041 041 029 000 00
231730 1646N 06337W 8429 01629 0175 +155 +126 132040 042 031 000 00
$$
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