ATL: CHANTAL - Post-Tropical

[Evil Jeremy]

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 092347
AF306 0303A CHANTAL HDOB 07 20130709
233800 1554N 06419W 8430 01611 0156 +150 +141 129044 046 038 000 00
233830 1553N 06420W 8429 01611 0164 +150 //// 132045 046 041 010 01
233900 1552N 06421W 8413 01627 0154 +158 +157 134040 044 041 009 00
233930 1551N 06422W 8432 01608 0149 +162 +137 134037 040 036 001 00
234000 1549N 06423W 8433 01608 0151 +159 +136 135038 039 036 000 00
234030 1548N 06424W 8431 01607 0150 +159 +142 137037 040 036 000 00
234100 1547N 06425W 8429 01609 0149 +157 +147 139037 039 035 000 00
234130 1546N 06426W 8428 01610 0148 +158 +147 140039 041 035 000 00
234200 1545N 06427W 8431 01608 0147 +160 +149 141038 039 034 000 00
234230 1543N 06428W 8428 01609 0146 +160 +146 142039 040 034 000 00
234300 1542N 06429W 8429 01608 0146 +160 +137 143040 041 033 000 00
234330 1541N 06430W 8430 01607 0146 +160 +136 142040 041 032 000 00
234400 1540N 06431W 8430 01610 0148 +157 +144 145040 041 032 000 00
234430 1539N 06432W 8427 01610 0149 +155 +148 146040 041 032 000 00
234500 1537N 06433W 8430 01607 0149 +155 +149 147039 040 032 000 00
234530 1536N 06434W 8429 01610 0148 +155 +138 148040 041 034 000 00
234600 1535N 06435W 8430 01607 0148 +157 +135 149040 041 034 000 00
234630 1534N 06436W 8430 01607 0147 +157 +136 146040 041 032 000 00
234700 1533N 06437W 8434 01599 0145 +161 +130 151036 038 032 000 00
234730 1531N 06438W 8429 01603 0142 +164 +124 150039 040 032 000 00
$$
;

[Evil Jeremy]

[Steve]

hello world. Havent been anywhere on the inter webs since Isaac last year and only return for threats. It looks like several of the models (courtesy of sfwmd) are lining up for a ride along or near the eastern coast of Florida. It's pretty amazing how many of them are honing in on that track(check out your favorite spaghetti plot map). So you know me, I'm going to look around the world for clues. Typhoon Soulik is looking to hit China in a couple of days. That argues for ridging in the southeast US 7-10 days. But we probably only have 4-5 til Chantal flirts with Easten FL/Bahamas. If you look at the path the jtwc has for Soulik, it makes a gradual slope north into China. If we were a week out, I'd be more confident in the teleconnection, but since the time is split, it's a little trickier. However, the orientation and angle as well as the current progged (potential) track of Soulik argues for initial impacts south of North Carolina but I think Chantal comes in at a more northerly angle than Soulik which will impact from a wnw heading. Stay tuned to the potential track of Soulik to see if it evolves.

The above post is solely the opinion of its author. Please use nhc and NOAA for official information.

[Aric Dunn]

so far recon finding no where near the winds from earlier.

[Evil Jeremy]

so far recon finding no where near the winds from earlier.

Finding no what?

[jhpigott]

so far recon finding no where near the winds from earlier.

Interesting. Makes me wonder if there wasn't something to wxman57s theory about those earlier winds actually being a streak from the jet stream dipping down to flight level.

[NDG]

so far recon finding no where near the winds from earlier.

Flight has been convection free, nothing but clean min tropical force winds found so far.

[floridasun78]

it look we now maybe 45mph storm

[ROCK]

I just like to show all the models regardless of where its going....we always see the GFS, CMC and EURO but rarely do we see the NAVGEM or NAM for that matter...speaking of NAM!!

Looks like the surface low decouples and Chantal (whats left of low level circulation) is south of Cuba whereas the MLC is shunted up towards the Bahamas. JMO

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Imageanis.php

[floridasun78]

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THESE WINDS ARE CONFINED TO A SMALL AREA TO THE EAST THE
CENTER. CHANTAL IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE
REACHING HISPANIOL 8pm stay with 65mph wind

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032013
800 PM AST TUE JUL 09 2013

...CHANTAL HURRYING ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.4N 64.9W
ABOUT 220 MI...360 KM SSE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 395 MI...635 KM ESE OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 26 MPH...43 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BARAHONA TO SAMANA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO
* ENTIRE COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
* ENTIRE COAST OF HAITI
* TURKS AND CAICOS
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* VIEQUES AND CULEBRA
* CENTRAL BAHAMAS

INTERESTS IN EASTERN CUBA AND THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF CHANTAL.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.9 WEST. CHANTAL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 26 MPH...43 KM/H. THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF CHANTAL WILL PASS SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO TONIGHT...AND IS
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. CHANTAL IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN AND
CENTRAL BAHAMAS ON THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THESE WINDS ARE CONFINED TO A SMALL AREA TO THE EAST THE
CENTER. CHANTAL IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE
REACHING HISPANIOLA.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150
KM...MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SHOULD REACH PUERTO RICO TONIGHT OR
EARLY WEDNESDAY...AND REACH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ON WEDNESDAY
MORNING. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN HAITI BY LATE
WEDNESDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...THE TURKS AND CAICOS...AND PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS ON THURSDAY.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE...ACCOMPANIED BY DANGEROUS WAVES...WILL
RAISE WATER LEVELS BY THE FOLLOWING AMOUNTS ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...

PUERTO RICO....1 TO 3 FT
SOUTHERN AND WESTERN HISPANIOLA...2 TO 4 FT
NORTHERN HISPANIOLA...1 TO 3 FT
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND TURKS AND CAICOS....1 TO 3 FT

RAINFALL...CHANTAL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER THE LEEWARD AND WINDWARD ISLANDS...WITH 3 TO
6 INCHES EXPECTED OVER PUERTO RICO...THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND
PORTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS
OF 8 INCHES POSSIBLE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BROWN

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 100004
AF306 0303A CHANTAL HDOB 08 20130709
234800 1530N 06439W 8431 01603 0143 +162 +131 151042 043 033 000 00
234830 1529N 06440W 8427 01604 0142 +158 +135 152042 044 034 000 00
234900 1528N 06441W 8430 01602 0141 +161 +120 155039 040 033 000 00
234930 1527N 06442W 8430 01600 0144 +159 +121 154043 044 033 000 00
235000 1526N 06443W 8435 01601 0139 +167 +116 154045 045 033 000 00
235030 1525N 06444W 8428 01602 0139 +165 +112 153044 045 032 000 00
235100 1524N 06445W 8433 01597 0137 +171 +106 154045 045 031 000 00
235130 1523N 06447W 8429 01601 0132 +177 +101 155045 045 032 000 00
235200 1522N 06448W 8433 01596 0126 +184 +100 152044 045 032 000 00
235230 1521N 06450W 8436 01593 0129 +182 +097 152045 046 032 000 00
235300 1521N 06451W 8425 01604 0132 +176 +102 153044 045 032 000 00
235330 1520N 06452W 8430 01602 0128 +181 +106 152041 043 036 001 00
235400 1519N 06454W 8432 01599 0129 +180 +120 150040 041 036 000 00
235430 1518N 06455W 8428 01604 0128 +183 +115 146037 039 034 000 00
235500 1517N 06457W 8433 01599 0128 +183 +120 144031 036 035 000 00
235530 1516N 06458W 8429 01602 0127 +183 +135 141028 031 036 000 00
235600 1515N 06459W 8426 01609 0127 +184 +132 127027 030 036 002 00
235630 1514N 06501W 8427 01603 0128 +179 +143 104024 033 036 002 03
235700 1513N 06502W 8433 01598 0132 +175 +148 105030 035 039 002 00
235730 1511N 06503W 8430 01604 0148 +160 +158 111027 033 040 002 00
$$
;

Took awhile...

[Stormlover2012]

I'm not -removed- either I'm just being a realist not one model has really being consistent. Atleast the navgem has be to texas to New Orleans and back to texas

[Airboy]

Looks like the center have moved W and slightly S?

[NDG]

Either the LLC is further south and west than the estimated 8 PM COC by the NHC or it has open up into a wave, still no sign of it, they just passed up the estimated center.

[Aric Dunn]

next set should be a center pass..

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 100008
AF306 0303A CHANTAL HDOB 09 20130709
235800 1510N 06503W 8425 01609 0149 +157 //// 130022 024 040 009 01
235830 1508N 06504W 8429 01602 0155 +154 //// 143028 029 040 012 01
235900 1507N 06505W 8429 01603 0157 +153 //// 138024 027 038 010 01
235930 1506N 06506W 8424 01607 0154 +155 +155 132022 023 040 010 00
000000 1505N 06507W 8432 01598 0153 +156 //// 126017 020 041 010 01
000030 1504N 06508W 8426 01603 0149 +160 //// 135014 016 036 006 01
000100 1503N 06510W 8431 01600 0151 +163 +163 115016 021 033 006 03
000130 1503N 06512W 8432 01600 0152 +152 //// 113018 022 036 006 01
000200 1504N 06513W 8428 01606 0139 +160 +158 122009 014 031 002 01
000230 1505N 06514W 8429 01605 0140 +159 +155 138010 013 032 001 01
000300 1506N 06516W 8420 01613 //// +159 //// 128011 013 032 001 01
000330 1507N 06517W 8444 01584 0134 +164 +152 153011 013 028 003 00
000400 1508N 06519W 8429 01600 0131 +168 +152 149011 013 022 000 00
000430 1509N 06520W 8430 01601 0129 +177 +140 141009 012 019 001 00
000500 1510N 06522W 8424 01606 0124 +183 +134 128009 010 018 000 00
000530 1511N 06523W 8434 01596 0124 +185 +135 133008 009 018 000 00
000600 1512N 06525W 8428 01605 0124 +182 +135 129008 008 017 000 00
000630 1513N 06526W 8430 01600 0121 +187 +135 112009 010 016 000 00
000700 1513N 06528W 8429 01599 0122 +185 +143 108009 010 014 000 00
000730 1514N 06529W 8432 01596 0121 +185 +138 100009 010 017 000 00
$$
;

[Evil Jeremy]

[adam0983]

Based on later recon information and satellite presentation a predicting a much weaker Chantal at 11pm. Just a forecast not a opinion.