ATL: CHANTAL - Post-Tropical

[southerngale]

Um what sat are you looking at? In mine it still looks like a wave.

Look at the timestamp. One of the sites I was using wasn't updating. Try this.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/

[KBBOCA]

Wow. Huge shift left for Chantal or what's left of her. It looks like the previous NHC track over the DR will bust pretty badly. I'm surprised. I've not seen such a BIG track change within the 24 - 48 hour cone in quite a long time.

What accounts for the pretty large shift? Am I overstating the degree to which the forecast points were off?

[Hurricane Alexis]

Wow. Huge shift left for Chantal or what's left of her. It looks like the previous NHC track over the DR will bust pretty badly. I'm surprised. I've not seen such a BIG track change within the 24 - 48 hour cone in quite a long time.

What accounts for the pretty large shift? Am I overstating the degree to which the forecast points were off?

It moved west for a few hours earlier.

[Airboy]

Maybe it have hit the break and are slowing down, which allows it to come back to life again.

[robbielyn]

Jim cantore mentioned models showing gom but eastern coast towards panhandle of fl

[jlauderdal]

Wow. Huge shift left for Chantal or what's left of her. It looks like the previous NHC track over the DR will bust pretty badly. I'm surprised. I've not seen such a BIG track change within the 24 - 48 hour cone in quite a long time.

What accounts for the pretty large shift? Am I overstating the degree to which the forecast points were off?

modeling has been terrible, nhc had to lay down a track based on all their data and human element but at the end of the day the thing was weak structurally, weird setup with the forward speed and difficult to forecast..i give them a pass on this one, they are usually very good inside of 72 hours..we all knew this thing had a mountain to climb and it would probably fail and it did..they knew that too but they have too put out a forecast and calling for disspitation so early would have been tough considering the models up until yesterday did something with it

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032013
500 AM AST WED JUL 10 2013

...CHANTAL WEAKENING...
...MAY BE DEGENERATING INTO A TROPICAL WAVE...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.5N 69.5W
ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM WSW OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM S OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 29 MPH...46 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB...29.85 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR PUERTO RICO...AND THE TROPICAL STORM
WATCH FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...VIEQUES...AND CULEBRA ARE
DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ENTIRE COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
* ENTIRE COAST OF HAITI
* TURKS AND CAICOS
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CENTRAL BAHAMAS

INTERESTS IN EASTERN CUBA AND THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF CHANTAL.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.5 WEST. CHANTAL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 29 MPH...46 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED THROUGH
TONIGHT. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY...
FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY NIGHT.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER WILL BE NEAR OR OVER HISPANIOLA
LATER TODAY...NEAR OR OVER EASTERN CUBA BY EARLY THURSDAY...AND
NEAR CENTRAL CUBA BY LATE THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. SATELLITE IMAGES...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...AND AIR
FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER DATA INDICATE THAT CHANTAL HAS BECOME
DISORGANIZED...AND THE SYSTEM COULD DEGENERATE INTO A TROPICAL WAVE
LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1011 MB...29.85 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS COULD REACH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
LATER THIS MORNING...AND HAITI LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS TONIGHT...AND OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS BY EARLY THURSDAY.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE...ACCOMPANIED BY DANGEROUS WAVES...WILL
RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1 TO 2 FEET IN THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING AREA.

RAINFALL...CHANTAL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
3 TO 6 INCHES OVER PUERTO RICO...THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI. ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER HISPANIOLA.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 AM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/BLAKE





TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032013
500 AM AST WED JUL 10 2013

OBSERVATIONS FROM A HURRICANE HUNTER MISSION AND NOAA DATA BUOY
42059 INDICATE THAT CHANTAL MAY NO LONGER HAVE A CLOSED
CIRCULATION. THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF THE SYSTEM HAS ALSO
DETERIORATED MARKEDLY THIS MORNING...AND IS BARELY CLASSIFIABLE BY
THE DVORAK TECHNIQUE. FLIGHT-LEVEL AND SFMR SURFACE WINDS DO NOT
SUPPORT AN INTENSITY OF MORE THAN 40 KT...AND THE CURRENT WIND
SPEED IS SET AT THAT VALUE. EVEN IF CHANTAL DOES NOT CEASE ITS
EXISTENCE AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE...DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE SHOWS STRONG
WESTERLY SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE
SHEAR...ALONG WITH LAND INTERACTION...SHOULD CAUSE FURTHER
WEAKENING. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE
STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL LGEM GUIDANCE AND THE INTENSITY MODEL
CONSENSUS.

ALTHOUGH THE CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO TRACK...THE BEST ESTIMATE IS
THAT CHANTAL MOVED VERY RAPIDLY WESTWARD...NEAR 28 KT...OVER THE
PAST SEVERAL HOURS. A MORE CONSERVATIVE...LONGER-TERM...ESTIMATE
OF INITIAL MOTION IS 285/25. A WELL-DEFINED MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE
NORTH OF THE STORM HAS BEEN STEERING IT QUICKLY WESTWARD TO
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE IN THE VICINITY OF THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD RESULT IN
CHANTAL...OR ITS REMNANT...TURNING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SINCE THE INITIAL POSITION HAS BEEN
SHIFTED SUBSTANTIALLY WESTWARD IN COMPARISON TO THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY... THIS NECESSITATES A LARGE WESTWARD SHIFT TO THE NHC
FORECAST TRACK. NONETHELESS...THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS STILL
ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE.

SINCE THE CYCLONE MAY BE OPENING UP INTO A WAVE...ADVISORIES MAY BE
DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/0900Z 16.5N 69.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 10/1800Z 17.8N 72.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 11/0600Z 19.5N 75.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 11/1800Z 21.5N 78.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
48H 12/0600Z 23.8N 79.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 13/0600Z 27.5N 80.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 14/0600Z 31.0N 81.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 15/0600Z 32.5N 82.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/BLAKE

[gigabite]

Well this system has been modified by a strong atmospheric tide. The tidal buldge will be just south of the system on this pass 18:30 UTC which historically aids the spin up if it does not continue to draw off moisture. After tomorrow 7/11/13 the system will be out of range of the tidal effect as the system continues to move north and the effect moves south and weakens.

Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[ronjon]

Not sure we'll be done with Chantal. From NWS Tampa Bay Disc:

LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
THE START OF THE LONG TERM IS HIGHLY LINKED TO THE PROGRESS OF
TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL. WITH THE STORM/S CURRENT DISORGANIZED
STATUS...GUIDANCE IS WIDELY RANGING. RECENT MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN
TO BRING THE SYSTEM FURTHER WEST THAN EARLIER RUNS. IF THIS
SYSTEM IS ABLE TO SURVIVE...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS IT MAY ENTER A MORE
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT IN THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN AND FLORIDA
STRAITS IF IT NEARS FLORIDA. THIS SYSTEM IS A BIT OF A FORECAST
MYSTERY AS ITS SURVIVAL IS NOT LOOKING LIKELY. THE 00Z CMC IS THE
MOST OPTIMISTIC MODEL FOR THE STORM NEARING OUR AREA AND
STRENGTHENING IN THE PROCESS...THIS APPEARS UNLIKELY. ON THE OTHER
END OF THE SPECTRUM...THE 12Z ECMWF DOES NOT REALLY HAVE CHANTAL
AS AN ORGANIZED SYSTEM EVEN AS IT GOES EAST OF FLORIDA. DECIDED TO
USE A MIDDLE-OF-THE-ROAD FORECAST PHILOSOPHY WITH THE EXTENDED
USING THE GFS AND GRIDDED MOS AS THE FOUNDATION.

[Airboy]

Recon in the air, will be interesting to see what it will find

[jlauderdal]

Recon in the air, will be interesting to see what it will find

they will find an open wave and turn around and go home and live to fight another day

[ObsessedMiami]

When Chantal gives you lemons, make lemonade. NBC/Weather Channel now hyping the rain threat from Chantal to Florida/Georgia

[StormTracker]

I really want to thank Rock, Jevo, meriland23 and others that take the time to post the models. You guys are totally awesome and I have a lot of respect for you guys. Thanks for helping people like me understand the model data better!

Sent from my HTC EVO 4G LTE

I second that motion too!

[gatorcane]

Chantal is in trouble! Wow the shear is doing a number on her. She made a good run though.

We are finally reminded we are still only in July...

[tailgater]

Luis did mission 05 buzz your house this morning. I see they flew very near ya.

[ninel conde]

Sometimes things can be clues to the season ahead. Chantal died over open waters in the deep tropics. Maybe the experts can say if this will be the pattern this season.

[pgoss11]

Chantal has been a great practce run for thngs to come. She fought a hard battle but it looks like the girl has finally run out of steam.

[tolakram]

Sometimes things can be clues to the season ahead. Chantal died over open waters in the deep tropics. Maybe the experts can say if this will be the pattern this season.

I think the simple answer is it's July. Every season has it's duds, we'll have to see if this means anything.

Live visible loop, all clouds moving west, I think it's done.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... umframes=5

[TexasF6]

Send McCoy back to sickbay, she ain't dead yet!!!

[tolakram]

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