ATL: CHANTAL - Post-Tropical

[northjaxpro]

Bones has been anxiously on stand by ready for his proclaimation lol.

[Alyono]

almost certainly a wave now

[Weatherboy1]

I don't know. Convection firing again. Maybe she is channeling LL Cool J and saying "Don't Call it a Comeback!" LOL

[funster]

Chantal seems to be right where you would expect Chantal to be at this point. Probably southwest of the big blowup of convection. Maybe NOAA site is down for some:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif

[TexasF6]

IMO, the new COC is under the new convection, you can see it happen in the visible loop, sped up of course. Told Y'all to leave Bones in sickbay! Anyways, until a storm dissipates completely? Cloud for cloud?! You never take your eye off it!!!! NAVGEM scared me though....

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[northjaxpro]

TexasF6, maybe you are right. Bones may be doing wonders in sickbay lol.. Recon is on the way and we will know shortly if Chantal still has a pulse left in her.

[Gustywind]

000
WTNT33 KNHC 101149
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 10A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032013
800 AM EDT WED JUL 10 2013

...CHANTAL MOST LIKELY A TROPICAL WAVE...
...RECONNAISSANCE PLANE EN ROUTE TO VERIFY...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.5N 70.8W
ABOUT 155 MI...245 KM SSW OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 29 MPH...46 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB...29.85 INCHES

[tailgater]

Should start slowing in the next 6 to 12 hours and turning more northward, if she survives the next 6 hrs. I would think she might have taken the hostile conditions worst punch. IMHO

[TexasF6]

Who's on recon?

[Gustywind]

If this struggling trend continue (should it verifies first) that could be an excellent news for DR, Haiti and the others islands of the Greater islands . Let's see how Chantal can jump the next hurddles with its fast movement 46 km/h.

IF THE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE VERIFIES THAT CHANTAL HAS DEGENERATED
INTO A TROPICAL WAVE...ALL TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS
WILL BE DISCONTINUED LATER THIS MORNING.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 10A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032013
800 AM EDT WED JUL 10 2013

...CHANTAL MOST LIKELY A TROPICAL WAVE...
...RECONNAISSANCE PLANE EN ROUTE TO VERIFY...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.5N 70.8W
ABOUT 155 MI...245 KM SSW OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 29 MPH...46 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB...29.85 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ENTIRE COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
* ENTIRE COAST OF HAITI
* TURKS AND CAICOS
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CENTRAL BAHAMAS

INTERESTS IN EASTERN CUBA AND THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF CHANTAL.

IF THE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE VERIFIES THAT CHANTAL HAS DEGENERATED
INTO A TROPICAL WAVE...ALL TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS
WILL BE DISCONTINUED LATER THIS MORNING.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL WAS
ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 70.8 WEST. CHANTAL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 29 MPH...46 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED THROUGH
TONIGHT. IF CHANTAL REMAINS A TROPICAL CYCLONE...A GRADUAL TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY. ON THE CURRENT
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER WILL BE MOVING NEAR OR TO THE SOUTH OF
HISPANIOLA TODAY...AND OVER EASTERN CUBA ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER...IF
CHANTAL DEGENERATES INTO A TROPICAL WAVE...THE REMNANTS WILL MOVE
RAPIDLY WESTWARD.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THESE WINDS ARE CONFINED TO AREAS OF HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE IS EN ROUTE TO
DETERMINE THE STATUS OF CHANTAL.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM
TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1011 MB...29.85 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS COULD AFFECT THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
THIS MORNING...AND HAITI LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
COULD OCCUR OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS
AND CAICOS TONIGHT...AND OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS BY
EARLY THURSDAY.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE...ACCOMPANIED BY DANGEROUS WAVES...WILL
RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1 TO 2 FEET IN THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING AREA.

RAINFALL...CHANTAL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
3 TO 6 INCHES OVER PUERTO RICO...THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI. ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER HISPANIOLA.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[Weatherboy1]

I don't know ... First visual shots seem to suggest there may still be an LLC to the SW of the main convection right? Seems like some curved low level bands wrapping around that area. Just wondering...

[Alyono]

if there is a center, it is about 90 miles west of the NHC position

[tolakram]

At work, can't do much recon. Looks like plane is close to where center might be.



000
URNT15 KNHC 101158
AF301 0503A CHANTAL HDOB 10 20130710
114830 1646N 07010W 9704 00367 0120 +220 +220 142035 037 035 000 00
114900 1645N 07011W 9705 00364 0118 +222 +218 142037 039 036 002 00
114930 1644N 07013W 9704 00365 0118 +220 +219 141036 037 036 000 00
115000 1643N 07014W 9703 00367 0118 +222 +218 141037 038 036 000 00
115030 1642N 07015W 9704 00367 0119 +223 +216 142036 038 035 001 00
115100 1641N 07017W 9706 00365 0120 +217 //// 144032 035 034 001 01
115130 1640N 07018W 9705 00367 0122 +217 +214 144030 033 034 001 00
115200 1639N 07019W 9704 00369 0123 +218 +211 144027 029 033 001 00
115230 1638N 07020W 9700 00373 0124 +220 +212 146029 031 034 001 00
115300 1637N 07021W 9703 00370 0124 +219 +211 149026 029 032 000 00
115330 1636N 07023W 9702 00374 0124 +219 +213 143027 029 030 001 00
115400 1635N 07024W 9700 00371 0122 +217 +214 144025 030 029 003 00
115430 1634N 07025W 9704 00368 0121 +217 +213 144026 028 029 000 00
115500 1633N 07026W 9704 00365 0120 +215 +214 145024 025 029 000 03
115530 1632N 07027W 9705 00366 0119 +216 +212 147023 024 026 001 00
115600 1631N 07029W 9705 00362 0118 +220 +209 148022 024 025 001 00
115630 1630N 07030W 9704 00365 0118 +221 +206 145020 022 022 001 00
115700 1629N 07031W 9699 00369 0117 +223 +208 135018 019 019 001 00
115730 1628N 07032W 9701 00368 0117 +225 +217 122013 019 020 001 00
115800 1627N 07033W 9699 00373 0117 +223 +217 114015 018 011 002 00
$$
;

[tolakram]

000
URNT15 KNHC 101208
AF301 0503A CHANTAL HDOB 11 20130710
115830 1626N 07034W 9707 00363 //// +222 //// 110009 013 013 002 05
115900 1624N 07035W 9702 00369 //// +221 //// 114012 016 020 002 01
115930 1623N 07036W 9702 00367 0119 +208 //// 098013 017 022 003 05
120000 1622N 07036W 9705 00364 //// +209 //// 108006 008 021 001 01
120030 1620N 07037W 9709 00359 0118 +218 +214 125006 008 021 000 03
120100 1619N 07037W 9705 00365 0118 +228 +199 128007 008 016 000 00
120130 1617N 07038W 9710 00360 0117 +228 +194 132006 007 015 001 00
120200 1616N 07039W 9707 00361 0116 +231 +190 104010 010 011 002 00
120230 1615N 07040W 9701 00369 0118 +231 +196 109012 012 016 001 00
120300 1613N 07041W 9712 00359 0119 +232 +198 108013 013 019 000 00
120330 1612N 07041W 9705 00367 0120 +224 +205 107013 015 016 001 00
120400 1610N 07042W 9699 00375 0122 +230 +198 107009 011 011 000 00
120430 1609N 07043W 9700 00374 0124 +223 +203 122007 009 012 002 00
120500 1607N 07043W 9706 00369 0123 +222 +219 134004 005 019 002 00
120530 1606N 07044W 9708 00366 //// +218 //// 152006 006 023 001 01
120600 1605N 07045W 9708 00365 0122 +223 //// 145009 009 020 003 01
120630 1604N 07046W 9709 00364 0122 +225 +223 140007 009 014 002 00
120700 1603N 07047W 9707 00365 0120 +230 +222 159008 009 012 001 00
120730 1602N 07048W 9705 00365 0119 +230 +221 167011 011 012 001 00
120800 1601N 07050W 9711 00360 0118 +230 +223 170012 013 013 001 00
$$
;

[wxwatcher4405]

if there is a center, it is about 90 miles west of the NHC position

do you think it could stay on a westerly path like the NAVGEM suggest?

[tolakram]

[RobWESTPACWX]

Shantal Vs Soulik. hmmm

[Gustywind]

Tropical Storm Chantal Weakens, May Become Remnant

http://www.weather.com/news/weather-hur ... n-20130708

Tropical Storm Chantal formed in the tropical Atlantic Ocean late Sunday night (Eastern U.S. time) and is now headed toward Hispanola after sweeping through the Windward Islands Tuesday. Wind gusts from 50-55 mph were measured in St. Lucia and a peak gust to 78 mph was measured in Martinique as the center swept through Tuesday.

That said, Chantal is struggling to hold it together as a tropical cyclone. The anticipated wind shear (change in wind direction and speed with increasing height) is beginning to take effect, scattering thunderstorms away from Chantal's center. Tuesday evening, a Hurricane Hunter reconnaissance mission struggled to observed a closed center of circulation. It is possible Chantal may degenerate into a tropical wave at any time.

Regardless, occasional wind gusts and locally heavy rain will still be possible in parts of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands Wednesday. Local flash flooding and mudslides are possible, particularly in the higher terrain of Puerto Rico.

(FORECASTS: San Juan | St. Croix)

Chantal will track near the Dominican Republic and Haiti Wednesday. Regardless of the status of Chantal, up to 10 inches of rain may trigger flash flooding and mudslides over higher terrain of those two countries, particularly over deforested areas. Haiti is particularly vulnerable to this type of heavy rainfall.

A minimal storm surge of 1 to 2 feet above normal tide levels is expected along the south coast of Hispanola as the center approaches.

Chantal, or its remnant, is then expected to track over parts of central and eastern Cuba Thursday and Thursday night, with more locally heavy rainfall.

Residents in the mainland U.S. should still monitor this system. Regardless of the status of Chantal, a boost in rainfall may arrive in Florida Friday, then potentially shift northward toward Georgia and South Carolina by Sunday into Monday.

[tolakram]

Recon found south winds, next batch should tell the story.