ATL: CHANTAL - Post-Tropical

[otowntiger]

Looks like a couple cloudy blobs to me.

[Evil Jeremy]

000
URNT15 KNHC 101248
AF301 0503A CHANTAL HDOB 15 20130710
123830 1528N 07219W 9706 00383 0144 +214 //// 077027 027 042 017 01
123900 1527N 07221W 9711 00379 0142 +220 +220 077029 029 036 009 00
123930 1527N 07223W 9710 00380 0142 +220 +220 080029 031 038 010 00
124000 1527N 07225W 9714 00376 0144 +223 //// 073028 032 036 006 01
124030 1526N 07226W 9719 00373 0141 +235 +229 062021 024 023 002 03
124100 1527N 07228W 9703 00388 0140 +235 +228 066020 022 /// /// 03
124130 1528N 07229W 9711 00381 0141 +235 +228 072021 021 014 001 00
124200 1529N 07230W 9708 00383 0141 +235 +225 074021 022 014 001 00
124230 1531N 07230W 9709 00383 0142 +235 +226 071021 021 016 001 00
124300 1532N 07231W 9707 00385 0142 +235 +229 070019 020 017 000 00
124330 1532N 07231W 9707 00385 0142 +235 +230 067020 021 020 001 00
124400 1535N 07232W 9709 00384 0142 +235 +226 066022 022 020 001 00
124430 1537N 07232W 9699 00393 0144 +227 +220 068028 033 030 003 00
124500 1538N 07233W 9712 00381 0144 +224 +213 071033 035 032 001 00
124530 1540N 07234W 9711 00382 0144 +223 +214 073032 033 031 000 03
124600 1541N 07234W 9707 00389 0144 +226 +215 074028 032 032 001 00
124630 1543N 07234W 9707 00387 0144 +227 +223 073023 025 032 000 00
124700 1544N 07234W 9707 00386 0143 +228 +226 069022 023 031 002 01
124730 1545N 07233W 9712 00381 0144 +225 //// 075026 034 030 000 05
124800 1547N 07233W 9721 00371 0146 +220 +216 071031 034 034 004 01
$$
;

[Thunder44]

Recon seems to be confirming what we suspected already, an open wave. Only SE to NE windshift so far.

[tgenius]

Where's Bones when you need him?

[Evil Jeremy]

Atlantic USAF High-Density Observations


000
URNT15 KNHC 101258
AF301 0503A CHANTAL HDOB 16 20130710
124830 1548N 07233W 9709 00384 0146 +224 +209 065029 031 033 003 00
124900 1550N 07233W 9709 00384 0145 +220 +209 067029 030 031 003 03
124930 1551N 07233W 9710 00383 0145 +222 +208 070031 032 028 004 00
125000 1553N 07233W 9708 00384 0143 +230 +206 070031 032 027 003 03
125030 1554N 07232W 9710 00382 0143 +229 +206 073030 031 022 004 00
125100 1555N 07232W 9705 00386 0143 +228 +209 076029 030 022 004 00
125130 1557N 07232W 9709 00383 0142 +229 +209 071028 031 021 002 00
125200 1558N 07232W 9711 00381 0143 +230 +209 072026 028 021 000 00
125230 1600N 07232W 9707 00384 0142 +230 +208 073026 027 018 002 00
125300 1601N 07232W 9707 00385 0142 +230 +212 067025 027 022 000 00
125330 1603N 07232W 9708 00383 0141 +235 +213 064025 027 023 001 00
125400 1604N 07232W 9709 00381 0140 +235 +223 062021 024 023 002 00
125430 1606N 07232W 9711 00381 0140 +236 +224 065019 020 022 001 00
125500 1607N 07232W 9705 00386 0140 +235 +227 063018 020 022 000 00
125530 1609N 07232W 9711 00380 0140 +235 +226 063019 019 021 000 00
125600 1610N 07232W 9705 00385 0140 +235 +228 066018 019 021 000 00
125630 1612N 07232W 9710 00380 0139 +235 +227 066019 019 021 001 00
125700 1613N 07232W 9708 00382 0139 +235 +225 066020 020 022 000 00
125730 1615N 07232W 9709 00380 0139 +235 +223 064020 021 022 000 00
125800 1616N 07232W 9709 00379 0139 +235 +226 063019 020 021 002 00
$$
;

[northjaxpro]

Well, Bones is certainly lurking very closely lol.. He is about ready to state his famous proclaimation as soon as Recon confirms what we all are suspecting at the moment.

[TexasF6]

Not dead yet...IMO

[wxman57]

Just because it's now just a strong disturbance doesn't mean it's dead. Death implies no chance of resurrection. I think there's a chance it could spin up again along the FL coast (either east or west).

[Evil Jeremy]

000
URNT15 KNHC 101308
AF301 0503A CHANTAL HDOB 17 20130710
125830 1618N 07232W 9709 00380 0138 +235 +226 063020 020 021 001 00
125900 1619N 07232W 9709 00380 0139 +235 +226 063021 022 022 002 00
125930 1621N 07231W 9708 00381 0139 +235 +224 063021 022 024 000 00
130000 1622N 07231W 9709 00380 0139 +235 +224 062021 022 024 000 00
130030 1623N 07231W 9710 00380 0139 +235 +224 062021 022 023 001 00
130100 1625N 07231W 9710 00381 0139 +235 +222 061022 022 024 000 00
130130 1626N 07231W 9709 00380 0139 +235 +225 062021 022 022 001 00
130200 1628N 07231W 9710 00379 0139 +235 +226 063021 023 022 001 00
130230 1629N 07231W 9710 00380 0139 +235 +227 065021 024 023 001 00
130300 1631N 07231W 9710 00380 0139 +235 +224 065022 023 022 000 00
130330 1632N 07231W 9708 00382 0139 +235 +226 066021 022 024 001 00
130400 1634N 07231W 9710 00380 0139 +235 +225 064021 023 024 000 00
130430 1635N 07231W 9708 00382 0139 +235 +227 063021 022 024 001 00
130500 1637N 07231W 9709 00381 0139 +235 +224 061022 023 024 001 00
130530 1638N 07231W 9710 00381 0140 +236 +223 062024 025 025 000 00
130600 1640N 07231W 9711 00380 0140 +237 +222 061025 025 025 001 00
130630 1641N 07231W 9709 00382 0140 +237 +222 062025 026 025 001 00
130700 1643N 07231W 9711 00380 0140 +238 +222 063026 027 025 001 00
130730 1644N 07231W 9710 00382 0140 +240 +220 064027 028 026 000 00
130800 1645N 07231W 9708 00383 0140 +240 +217 065028 029 027 002 00
$$
;

[shortwave]

Just because it's now just a strong disturbance doesn't mean it's dead. Death implies no chance of resurrection. I think there's a chance it could spin up again along the FL coast (either east or west).

I guess there's a "3 plane rule" as far as downgrading a system. If the 3rd plane can't find a center either then it's a wave?

Which side of florida would you forecast it to end up on? or maybe right over?

[northjaxpro]

Just because it's now just a strong disturbance doesn't mean it's dead. Death implies no chance of resurrection. I think there's a chance it could spin up again along the FL coast (either east or west).

Wxman you are right. There is a lot of vigorous energy down there with Chantal's remnants and the didturbance in the Florida Straits currently.

All kidding aside about Bones, there is a decent chance of regeneration. I mentioned this in the ULL thresd and that is what are the chance of the disturbance in the Florida Straits interacting with Chantal' remnants? The feature in the FL Straits has not move the west as the models initialized a couple of days ago and now ChantalKs remannts are fast approaching from the southeast.

[bohaiboy]

If it is just an open, doesn't that mean it won't be as influenced by the trough?

[wxman57]

If it is just an open (wave), doesn't that mean it won't be as influenced by the trough?

Not necessarily. The western extent of the ridge is about Haiti. Chantal's remnants will likely begin turning NW soon. It's possible some of Chantal's energy will continue moving west. We see that quite often. The top part of a wave breaks off and develops while the lower part keeps moving west.

[Evil Jeremy]

000
URNT15 KNHC 101318
AF301 0503A CHANTAL HDOB 18 20130710
130830 1647N 07230W 9711 00380 0140 +240 +217 064028 028 026 001 03
130900 1648N 07230W 9711 00381 0140 +240 +217 062028 029 026 000 00
130930 1650N 07230W 9709 00382 0140 +240 +217 061028 028 025 000 00
131000 1651N 07230W 9709 00382 0140 +240 +219 061026 027 025 001 00
131030 1653N 07230W 9710 00381 0140 +240 +219 058026 026 024 001 00
131100 1654N 07230W 9712 00379 0140 +240 +220 058024 026 025 000 00
131130 1656N 07230W 9708 00383 0141 +240 +220 058024 024 023 001 00
131200 1657N 07230W 9710 00382 0140 +241 +216 059023 025 023 000 00
131230 1658N 07230W 9714 00379 0140 +240 +218 057020 022 021 001 03
131300 1659N 07229W 9703 00388 0140 +240 +217 048020 020 020 000 03
131330 1658N 07228W 9712 00380 0140 +240 +216 044021 021 024 000 00
131400 1657N 07227W 9711 00380 0140 +241 +214 045023 024 024 000 00
131430 1655N 07225W 9708 00384 0140 +243 +212 046023 024 024 000 00
131500 1654N 07224W 9708 00383 0140 +244 +211 045025 026 025 000 00
131530 1653N 07223W 9710 00381 0141 +244 +211 046028 028 026 000 00
131600 1652N 07222W 9708 00383 0140 +244 +211 045028 029 027 000 00
131630 1651N 07221W 9710 00381 0140 +241 +213 046028 028 025 001 00
131700 1650N 07220W 9708 00383 0140 +241 +214 046029 030 026 001 00
131730 1649N 07219W 9710 00381 0139 +241 +214 047031 032 027 000 00
131800 1648N 07218W 9709 00381 0139 +240 +215 043030 032 028 000 00
$$
;

[TheStormExpert]

For those of you who think think is what the season is going to be like (Weak pathetic disorganized storms) might not want to judge to soon. In 2004 there was TS Earl which experienced the same situation that this storm is most likely facing and it formed a month later than Chantal. Just saying this does not in any way determine what a season may be like when it comes to the strength and environment storms have to deal with. Overall I think Chantal is screwed at least until it gets north of the islands (if it ever does) then it might have a quick shot at trying to get its act together again. But that is still very questionable.

[Tireman4]

I know nothing ( and happily stand by this..LOL), but maybe the NAVGEM was onto something. Just a neophyte's observation. I could be out to lunch as the NAVGEM is...

[ROCK]

I know nothing ( and happily stand by this..LOL), but maybe the NAVGEM was onto something. Just a neophyte's observation. I could be out to lunch as the NAVGEM is...

maybe so....06Z shifted over to her remants into LA.....

[ROCK]

still think it will pass south of the islands until about Cuba....go over Jam...

[Evil Jeremy]

000
URNT15 KNHC 101328
AF301 0503A CHANTAL HDOB 19 20130710
131830 1647N 07216W 9710 00380 0139 +240 +217 043030 032 028 000 00
131900 1645N 07215W 9708 00382 0139 +240 +217 042030 033 027 000 00
131930 1644N 07214W 9709 00380 0139 +240 +218 042029 031 028 000 00
132000 1643N 07213W 9708 00381 0139 +240 +218 042030 032 029 002 00
132030 1642N 07212W 9712 00381 0139 +240 +215 040031 033 029 001 00
132100 1641N 07211W 9707 00383 0139 +239 +219 036028 030 029 000 00
132130 1640N 07210W 9709 00381 0138 +238 +219 031026 030 027 001 00
132200 1639N 07209W 9711 00380 0138 +237 +220 033025 025 026 001 00
132230 1637N 07207W 9706 00383 0138 +237 +220 034024 025 026 000 00
132300 1636N 07206W 9707 00383 0138 +237 +219 029023 026 026 001 00
132330 1635N 07205W 9711 00379 0138 +236 +220 030022 025 027 002 03
132400 1634N 07204W 9707 00383 0138 +227 +226 027022 023 029 002 01
132430 1632N 07204W 9711 00378 0137 +232 +222 030024 027 029 003 00
132500 1631N 07203W 9704 00384 0137 +235 +221 026022 022 029 002 00
132530 1629N 07202W 9708 00380 0137 +235 +222 025021 023 026 001 00
132600 1628N 07201W 9711 00376 0136 +235 +222 025020 022 025 001 00
132630 1626N 07201W 9711 00377 0136 +235 +223 023019 021 026 000 00
132700 1625N 07200W 9715 00373 0137 +233 +223 023018 018 024 001 00
132730 1623N 07159W 9707 00380 0137 +226 +224 023020 020 027 001 01
132800 1622N 07158W 9709 00380 0138 +233 +222 017017 019 025 000 03
$$
;

[TexasF6]

I saw that NAVGEM with the Hurricane into Galveston....but it showed Chantal crossing Northern Jamaican coast? If it does that, I will start believing NAVGEM...a little....it is NAVGEM after all.....

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