ATL: CHANTAL - Post-Tropical

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Re: ATL: CHANTAL - Advisories

#2941 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jul 10, 2013 10:00 am

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032013
1000 AM EST WED JUL 10 2013

...AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE FINDS THAT CHANTAL IS STILL A
TROPICAL STORM...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM EST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.5N 72.0W
ABOUT 335 MI...535 KM ESE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM S OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 29 MPH...46 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB...29.85 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
JAMAICA

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ENTIRE COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
* ENTIRE COAST OF HAITI
* TURKS AND CAICOS
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CENTRAL BAHAMAS
* JAMAICA

INTERESTS IN EASTERN CUBA AND THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF CHANTAL.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1000 AM EST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL WAS
EATIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.0 WEST. CHANTAL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 29 MPH...46 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST WITH A GRADUAL DESCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...CHANTAL
OR ITS REMNANTS WILL MOVE BETWEEN EASTERN CUBA AND JAMAICA TONIGHT
AND EMERGE OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS THURSDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THESE WINDS ARE CONFINED TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE
CENTER. CHANTAL IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR
DEGENERATE INTO A TROPICAL WAVE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1011 MB...29.85 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC THIS MORNING...AND REACH HAITI TODAY. TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS TONIGHT...AND OVER PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS BY EARLY THURSDAY.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE...ACCOMPANIED BY DANGEROUS WAVES...WILL
RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1 TO 2 FEET IN THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING AREA.

RAINFALL...CHANTAL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
2 TO 4 INCHES OVER HISPANIOLA...CENTRAL AND EASTERN CUBA...AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...100 PM EST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 PM EST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA




TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032013
1100 AM EDT WED JUL 10 2013

ALTHOUGH SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTED THAT CHANTAL NO LONGER HAD A
CLOSED CIRCULATION THIS MORNING...THANKS TO DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE
HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING CHANTAL...WE WERE
ABLE TO LOCATE ENOUGH OF A CIRCULATION TO MAINTAIN ADVISORIES.
INITIAL INTENSITY IS 40 KNOTS BUT GIVEN THE STRONG SHEAR THAT IS
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ALONG THE PATH OF CHANTAL...ALONG WITH THE
INFLUENCE OF SURROUNDING LAND...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR
GRADUAL WEAKENING. CHANTAL WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE IN 3 DAYS...OR
PERHAPS MUCH EARLIER.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN SINCE THE CENTER DEFINITION
IS POOR. THE BEST ESTIMATE IS 280 DEGREES AT 25 KNOTS. HOWEVER...
THE STEERING CURRENTS ARE FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS THE HIGH TO THE
NORTH MOVES EASTWARD AND A MID-LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS PATTERN SHOULD RESULT IN A TURN TO THE
NORTHWEST AND NORTH OF THE CYCLONE OR ITS REMANTS DURING THE 2 TO 3
DAYS. THIS TRACK IS CONSISTENT PRIMARILY WITH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF
SOLUTIONS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/1500Z 16.5N 72.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 11/0000Z 18.1N 75.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 11/1200Z 20.0N 78.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 12/0000Z 22.5N 80.0W 25 KT 30 MPH
48H 12/1200Z 25.0N 80.5W 25 KT 30 MPH
72H 13/1200Z 30.0N 80.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 14/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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#2942 Postby galaxy401 » Wed Jul 10, 2013 10:00 am

This storm needs to turn north now if it were to follow that track.
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Got my eyes on moving right into Hurricane Alley: Florida.

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#2943 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Jul 10, 2013 10:00 am

I think the center may be well south of there, closer to 14.9N.
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#2944 Postby Caribwxgirl » Wed Jul 10, 2013 10:00 am

Oh well there ya go!
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#2945 Postby Janie2006 » Wed Jul 10, 2013 10:00 am

I'm not surprised. I think there are at least a couple of factors arguing against a downgrade right now.

Certainly an interesting system, given all the odds against her. The convection has held together or even increased a bit this morning. The trade winds have killed many a storm, some of which were better organized than Chantal.
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Re:

#2946 Postby adam0983 » Wed Jul 10, 2013 10:01 am

I was having some fun and some sense of humor. I know stuff was damaged in the Caribbean I feel bad for those people. Just an opinion not a forecast.
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Re: ATL: CHANTAL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2947 Postby Bocadude85 » Wed Jul 10, 2013 10:04 am

Hmm looks like a lot of rain in the cards for me on Friday.... assuming there is anything left by that time
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Re: ATL: CHANTAL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2948 Postby wzrgirl1 » Wed Jul 10, 2013 10:04 am

I am headed to a conference on Friday to Orlando. What do you feel the chances are that I will be driving through a tropical storm? Deciding on which car to drive for safety reasons. It's too late for me to cancel the hotel reservation. Plus I am staying at the Contemporary hotel in Disney and was really looking forward to it. Opinions? Thanks!!
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Re: ATL: CHANTAL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2949 Postby ronjon » Wed Jul 10, 2013 10:05 am

Looks like a wait and see approach by the NHC - they can always downgrade at the 5 pm advisory. It hasn't slowed down yet though.
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Re: ATL: CHANTAL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2950 Postby Bocadude85 » Wed Jul 10, 2013 10:06 am

wzrgirl1 wrote:I am headed to a conference on Friday to Orlando. What do you feel the chances are that I will be driving through a tropical storm? Deciding on which car to drive for safety reasons. It's too late for me to cancel the hotel reservation. Plus I am staying at the Contemporary hotel in Disney and was really looking forward to it. Opinions? Thanks!!



I think your going to be dealing with a lot of rain.. the NHC is calling for a tropical depression at landfall on Friday morning so I dont think wind is going to be a factor. But Im not a professional met by any means
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Re: ATL: CHANTAL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2951 Postby wzrgirl1 » Wed Jul 10, 2013 10:09 am

Bocadude85 wrote:
wzrgirl1 wrote:I am headed to a conference on Friday to Orlando. What do you feel the chances are that I will be driving through a tropical storm? Deciding on which car to drive for safety reasons. It's too late for me to cancel the hotel reservation. Plus I am staying at the Contemporary hotel in Disney and was really looking forward to it. Opinions? Thanks!!



I think your going to be dealing with a lot of rain.. the NHC is calling for a tropical depression at landfall on Friday morning so I dont think wind is going to be a factor. But Im not a professional met by any means


Thanks for your response. I drive a Corvette. Low to the ground. Don't think I will be driving that. Will take my husband's Camry instead.
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Re:

#2952 Postby artist » Wed Jul 10, 2013 10:09 am

Caribwxgirl wrote:Something tells me a lot of rain is headed my way!

I hope you guys don't get too much.
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Re: Re:

#2953 Postby Caribwxgirl » Wed Jul 10, 2013 10:10 am

artist wrote:
Caribwxgirl wrote:Something tells me a lot of rain is headed my way!

I hope you guys don't get too much.


I hope so too. Thanks
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Re: ATL: CHANTAL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2954 Postby AdamFirst » Wed Jul 10, 2013 10:12 am

From the 11 AM Disco

ALTHOUGH SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTED THAT CHANTAL NO LONGER HAD A
CLOSED CIRCULATION THIS MORNING...THANKS TO DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE
HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING CHANTAL...WE WERE
ABLE TO LOCATE ENOUGH OF A CIRCULATION TO MAINTAIN ADVISORIES.
INITIAL INTENSITY IS 40 KNOTS BUT GIVEN THE STRONG SHEAR THAT IS
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ALONG THE PATH OF CHANTAL...ALONG WITH THE
INFLUENCE OF SURROUNDING LAND...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR
GRADUAL WEAKENING. CHANTAL WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE IN 3 DAYS...OR
PERHAPS MUCH EARLIER.
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Re: ATL: CHANTAL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2955 Postby AtlanticWind » Wed Jul 10, 2013 10:16 am

I am a little surprised the NHC still weakens this storm over the 48 hours,It will encounter some shear but it also about to enter some of the warmest waters in the atlantic basin and is expected to slow down . Also on the new path land interaction will be much less. We shall see.
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Re: ATL: CHANTAL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2956 Postby Bocadude85 » Wed Jul 10, 2013 10:16 am

I know the NHC is forecasting a tropical depression at landfall in South Florida or perhaps even dissipation before then but I was curious if there would be any TS watches issued for Florida? If so when would we expect those?
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#2957 Postby artist » Wed Jul 10, 2013 10:18 am

still waiting for obs
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#2958 Postby AdamFirst » Wed Jul 10, 2013 10:19 am

Avila was the forecaster - since model guidance is kaput and this storm in general is throwing curveballs, then I think they're still going conservative with any type of intensity forecast. I guess they're banking it dies over Cuba.
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#2959 Postby artist » Wed Jul 10, 2013 10:20 am

28
URNT15 KNHC 101458
AF301 0503A CHANTAL HDOB 28 20130710
144830 1601N 07201W 9249 00811 0147 +205 +203 029005 006 019 000 00
144900 1600N 07200W 9250 00806 //// +204 //// 014003 005 018 001 01
144930 1600N 07158W 9250 00808 0145 +208 +204 027001 003 021 002 00
145000 1559N 07157W 9252 00805 0142 +210 +199 237001 002 023 003 00
145030 1559N 07155W 9244 00811 0144 +208 +198 201002 003 019 004 00
145100 1558N 07154W 9248 00808 0145 +205 +193 191008 010 016 002 00
145130 1558N 07152W 9251 00806 0146 +205 +191 153008 010 016 000 00
145200 1557N 07150W 9248 00809 0144 +211 +187 135009 010 010 002 00
145230 1557N 07149W 9249 00810 0147 +209 +191 132009 010 014 000 00
145300 1557N 07147W 9244 00815 0148 +205 +192 150011 011 009 001 03
145330 1558N 07146W 9252 00806 0147 +205 +192 156014 014 011 002 00
145400 1559N 07145W 9248 00813 0147 +205 +194 148015 015 016 001 00
145430 1600N 07143W 9251 00808 0146 +205 +194 151014 016 012 001 00
145500 1600N 07142W 9246 00813 0148 +201 +196 152015 016 012 001 00
145530 1600N 07140W 9250 00809 0148 +203 +195 157017 018 009 001 00
145600 1600N 07138W 9249 00812 0149 +205 +192 163022 023 008 000 00
145630 1600N 07137W 9250 00811 0151 +202 +194 163021 021 007 000 00
145700 1600N 07135W 9249 00814 0152 +200 +196 162019 021 007 000 00
145730 1600N 07134W 9249 00815 0155 +200 +197 165019 020 009 001 00
145800 1600N 07132W 9248 00817 0155 +200 +196 159020 021 008 000 00


AF301 0503A CHANTAL HDOB 29 20130710
145830 1600N 07130W 9250 00813 0154 +201 +195 156020 020 006 000 00
145900 1600N 07129W 9248 00816 0153 +201 +194 159021 022 006 000 00
145930 1600N 07127W 9248 00816 0151 +206 +190 166023 024 008 000 00
150000 1600N 07126W 9249 00814 0152 +208 +186 164024 025 005 001 00
150030 1600N 07124W 9250 00813 0152 +205 +191 165023 024 005 000 00
150100 1600N 07122W 9248 00814 0154 +200 +198 166021 023 006 000 00
150130 1600N 07121W 9250 00814 0153 +203 +197 166022 022 005 001 00
150200 1600N 07119W 9248 00815 0153 +203 +195 162024 024 006 001 00
150230 1600N 07118W 9248 00815 0152 +205 +191 163025 025 006 000 00
150300 1600N 07116W 9249 00814 0152 +205 +191 163026 026 006 000 00
150330 1600N 07115W 9250 00813 0152 +204 +195 164025 026 007 000 00
150400 1600N 07113W 9249 00813 0152 +204 +197 162024 025 007 000 00
150430 1600N 07111W 9246 00816 0151 +204 +197 162025 026 006 000 00
150500 1600N 07110W 9250 00811 0150 +203 +197 163026 026 008 000 00
150530 1600N 07108W 9249 00813 0151 +205 +195 164028 028 007 000 00
150600 1600N 07107W 9249 00814 0151 +206 +191 165029 030 006 001 03
150630 1559N 07105W 9248 00816 0151 +206 +191 163029 030 007 002 00
150700 1559N 07104W 9252 00811 0152 +202 +195 164027 029 019 003 00
150730 1559N 07102W 9249 00815 0152 +202 +197 157029 030 020 003 00
150800 1559N 07101W 9242 00822 0153 +202 +197 161030 032 014 000 00



000
URNT15 KNHC 101518
AF301 0503A CHANTAL HDOB 30 20130710
150830 1559N 07059W 9240 00822 0154 +202 +196 165030 031 022 000 00
150900 1559N 07058W 9250 00815 0154 +204 +190 162030 031 022 000 00
150930 1559N 07056W 9250 00814 0153 +206 +187 157031 032 024 001 00
151000 1559N 07055W 9248 00816 0154 +204 +191 157031 032 023 000 00
151030 1559N 07053W 9250 00814 0155 +204 +195 156029 030 023 000 00
151100 1559N 07051W 9252 00814 0154 +206 +190 154031 032 026 001 00
151130 1559N 07050W 9246 00819 0154 +208 +187 151033 034 025 002 00
151200 1559N 07048W 9250 00817 0154 +210 +184 149033 034 024 000 00
151230 1559N 07047W 9250 00816 0155 +210 +184 144033 034 025 000 00
151300 1559N 07045W 9248 00817 0155 +208 +187 145032 033 025 000 00
151330 1559N 07044W 9246 00820 0156 +208 +184 143033 034 023 001 03
151400 1601N 07043W 9250 00816 0156 +206 +182 138035 036 025 000 00
151430 1603N 07044W 9250 00817 0156 +209 +181 138035 036 025 001 00
151500 1604N 07044W 9248 00819 0155 +206 +185 137034 035 026 001 00
151530 1606N 07044W 9249 00816 0154 +212 +178 139035 036 026 000 00
151600 1608N 07044W 9248 00818 0155 +215 +175 137036 037 027 001 00
151630 1610N 07044W 9249 00819 0156 +213 +176 136038 038 027 000 00
151700 1612N 07044W 9249 00819 0157 +210 +178 134038 038 026 002 00
151730 1613N 07045W 9250 00818 0158 +209 +183 133036 038 027 001 00
151800 1615N 07045W 9248 00822 0160 +205 +190 134036 037 026 001 00
$$
Last edited by artist on Wed Jul 10, 2013 10:32 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: CHANTAL - Models

#2960 Postby djmikey » Wed Jul 10, 2013 10:22 am

Wow....was'nt expecting that NHC track! A bend towards the east?

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