ATL: CHANTAL - Post-Tropical

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
artist
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9792
Joined: Mon Jun 06, 2005 3:26 pm
Location: West Palm

Re: ATL: CHANTAL - Recon

#2961 Postby artist » Wed Jul 10, 2013 10:25 am

Image
0 likes   

Stormlover2012
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 262
Joined: Sat Jun 23, 2012 11:03 am

Re: ATL: CHANTAL - Models

#2962 Postby Stormlover2012 » Wed Jul 10, 2013 10:26 am

Must be going with euro!!
0 likes   

User avatar
CalmBeforeStorm
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 600
Age: 71
Joined: Tue Aug 10, 2004 7:55 pm
Location: Stuart, Florida

Re: ATL: CHANTAL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2963 Postby CalmBeforeStorm » Wed Jul 10, 2013 10:31 am

AtlanticWind wrote:I am a little surprised the NHC still weakens this storm over the 48 hours,It will encounter some shear but it also about to enter some of the warmest waters in the atlantic basin and is expected to slow down . Also on the new path land interaction will be much less. We shall see.

So I should start boarding up? :double:
0 likes   

User avatar
artist
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9792
Joined: Mon Jun 06, 2005 3:26 pm
Location: West Palm

#2964 Postby artist » Wed Jul 10, 2013 10:33 am

URNT15 KNHC 101528
AF301 0503A CHANTAL HDOB 31 20130710
151830 1617N 07045W 9250 00819 0159 +205 +191 135038 039 026 001 00
151900 1619N 07045W 9247 00821 0156 +205 +193 135041 041 027 004 00
151930 1621N 07045W 9250 00816 0156 +202 +192 136041 042 029 005 00
152000 1623N 07046W 9250 00816 0155 +205 +186 136041 042 032 012 00
152030 1624N 07046W 9251 00814 0163 +188 +186 133043 044 051 028 00
152100 1626N 07046W 9243 00820 0162 +196 +196 136040 044 050 027 00
152130 1628N 07046W 9250 00814 0166 +188 +188 143042 043 048 021 00
152200 1630N 07047W 9248 00820 0170 +178 +178 139038 044 054 031 00
152230 1632N 07047W 9245 00820 0169 +183 +183 136039 040 057 033 00
152300 1634N 07047W 9242 00828 0172 +189 +189 133043 046 058 033 00
152330 1635N 07047W 9255 00815 0173 +191 +191 136039 043 047 023 00
152400 1637N 07047W 9248 00821 0170 +189 +189 141042 044 039 017 00
152430 1639N 07048W 9252 00817 0168 +193 +193 138043 046 039 014 00
152500 1641N 07048W 9248 00821 0161 +198 +195 135044 049 037 006 00
152530 1643N 07048W 9244 00824 0158 +206 +189 135037 041 038 005 30
152600 1645N 07048W 9253 00816 0158 +207 +193 137032 034 035 003 00
152630 1646N 07048W 9254 00815 0154 +212 +193 132034 035 033 004 00
152700 1648N 07049W 9243 00825 0154 +216 +190 137037 038 031 002 00
152730 1650N 07049W 9250 00819 0154 +215 +193 141035 037 031 002 00
152800 1652N 07049W 9248 00821 0155 +214 +190 140034 035 033 000 00
$$
;
0 likes   

User avatar
ROCK
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9484
Age: 54
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 7:30 am
Location: Kemah, Texas

Re: ATL: CHANTAL - Models

#2965 Postby ROCK » Wed Jul 10, 2013 10:33 am

12Z NAM----just a wave with the 850vort giong through the channel...

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Imageanis.php
0 likes   

User avatar
ROCK
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9484
Age: 54
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 7:30 am
Location: Kemah, Texas

Re: ATL: CHANTAL - Models

#2966 Postby ROCK » Wed Jul 10, 2013 10:34 am

12Z GFS has started...

18hrs out...poof!!

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?mode ... ort_ht.gif
0 likes   

User avatar
AdamFirst
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2491
Age: 36
Joined: Thu Aug 14, 2008 10:54 am
Location: Port Saint Lucie, FL

Re: ATL: CHANTAL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2967 Postby AdamFirst » Wed Jul 10, 2013 10:35 am

CalmBeforeStorm wrote:
AtlanticWind wrote:I am a little surprised the NHC still weakens this storm over the 48 hours,It will encounter some shear but it also about to enter some of the warmest waters in the atlantic basin and is expected to slow down . Also on the new path land interaction will be much less. We shall see.

So I should start boarding up? :double:


Short answer: no

long answer: nooooooooooo :D

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Last edited by tolakram on Wed Jul 10, 2013 10:39 am, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: added disclaimer
0 likes   
Dolphins Marlins Canes Golden Panthers HEAT
Andrew 1992 - Irene 1999 - Frances 2004 - Jeanne 2004 - Wilma 2005 - Fay 2008 - Isaac 2012 - Matthew 2016 - Irma 2017 - Dorian 2019 - Ian 2022 - Nicole 2022 - Milton 2024

User avatar
artist
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9792
Joined: Mon Jun 06, 2005 3:26 pm
Location: West Palm

Re: ATL: CHANTAL - Recon

#2968 Postby artist » Wed Jul 10, 2013 10:36 am

Image
thru 31 with missing obs
0 likes   

Airboy
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 439
Joined: Wed Jul 27, 2011 10:41 am

Re: ATL: CHANTAL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2969 Postby Airboy » Wed Jul 10, 2013 10:37 am

Time: 15:23:00Z
Coordinates: 16.5667N 70.7833W
Acft. Static Air Press: 924.2 mb (~ 27.29 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 828 meters (~ 2,717 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1017.2 mb (~ 30.04 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 133° at 43 knots (From the SE at ~ 49.4 mph)
Air Temp: 18.9°C (~ 66.0°F)
Dew Pt: 18.9°C (~ 66.0°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 46 knots (~ 52.9 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 58 knots (~ 66.7 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 33 mm/hr (~ 1.30 in/hr)
(*) Denotes suspect data
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

tolakram
Admin
Admin
Posts: 20009
Age: 62
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)

Re: ATL: CHANTAL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2970 Postby tolakram » Wed Jul 10, 2013 10:38 am

AdamFirst wrote:
CalmBeforeStorm wrote:
AtlanticWind wrote:I am a little surprised the NHC still weakens this storm over the 48 hours,It will encounter some shear but it also about to enter some of the warmest waters in the atlantic basin and is expected to slow down . Also on the new path land interaction will be much less. We shall see.

So I should start boarding up? :double:


Short answer: no

long answer: nooooooooooo :D


Let's be careful giving advice like this, and remember the disclaimer please.
0 likes   
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.

tolakram
Admin
Admin
Posts: 20009
Age: 62
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)

Re: ATL: CHANTAL - Models

#2971 Postby tolakram » Wed Jul 10, 2013 10:45 am

Stormlover2012 wrote:Must be going with euro!!


Once the euro shows something it's a fairly safe pick, but notice it didn't show anything until forced to recognize there was a TS down there. :)
0 likes   
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
artist
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9792
Joined: Mon Jun 06, 2005 3:26 pm
Location: West Palm

#2972 Postby artist » Wed Jul 10, 2013 10:45 am

URNT15 KNHC 101538
AF301 0503A CHANTAL HDOB 32 20130710
152830 1654N 07049W 9248 00819 0155 +215 +179 142033 034 032 001 00
152900 1655N 07050W 9249 00818 0154 +217 +177 137034 036 034 000 00
152930 1657N 07050W 9249 00820 0157 +208 +176 133040 041 033 002 00
153000 1659N 07050W 9245 00822 0158 +206 +179 134040 040 031 002 03
153030 1700N 07051W 9246 00823 0159 +204 +184 132036 040 /// /// 03
153100 1700N 07053W 9250 00816 0156 +205 +187 129033 035 030 005 00
153130 1658N 07054W 9247 00819 0155 +205 +193 131027 031 031 004 00
153200 1657N 07055W 9249 00817 0154 +211 +191 129026 027 032 001 00
153230 1656N 07056W 9248 00819 0156 +210 +188 132028 029 032 000 00
153300 1655N 07057W 9250 00815 0156 +205 +192 131028 029 031 001 00
153330 1654N 07058W 9245 00820 0163 +196 +196 122029 031 035 012 00
153400 1653N 07100W 9249 00816 0161 +197 +197 128030 031 036 014 00
153430 1652N 07101W 9249 00817 0161 +199 +199 136023 029 036 012 00
153500 1651N 07102W 9248 00817 0158 +201 //// 137026 028 030 008 01
153530 1649N 07103W 9250 00816 0155 +207 +192 135027 029 030 002 00
153600 1648N 07104W 9249 00819 0156 +205 +192 137026 027 028 002 00
153630 1647N 07105W 9248 00818 0157 +204 +195 139025 025 027 002 00
153700 1646N 07107W 9249 00819 0159 +200 +200 143023 024 025 001 00
153730 1645N 07108W 9248 00820 //// +196 //// 143021 023 024 000 01
153800 1644N 07109W 9249 00819 //// +197 //// 145021 021 024 000 01
$$
;
0 likes   

User avatar
artist
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9792
Joined: Mon Jun 06, 2005 3:26 pm
Location: West Palm

Re: ATL: CHANTAL - Recon

#2973 Postby artist » Wed Jul 10, 2013 10:47 am

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
ROCK
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9484
Age: 54
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 7:30 am
Location: Kemah, Texas

Re: ATL: CHANTAL - Models

#2974 Postby ROCK » Wed Jul 10, 2013 10:48 am

the 12Z GFS is not worth posting....nothing to really see....out 60hrs...nothing left at 850 or 500MB level....
0 likes   

ninel conde

#2975 Postby ninel conde » Wed Jul 10, 2013 10:52 am

DT is saying if this gets into the GOM conditions will be very favorable this weekend and next week.


threat for GULF is increasing

12z Hurricane Models shift way west and the weakening of Chantal into a TD means a more west track and a threat GULF OF MEXICO... she will NOT cross the big island of Hispaniola and this means she may make into the Gulf where conditions this weekend and next week could become VERY favorable for development.

thats from dt on facebook and of course its not an official NHC forecast.
0 likes   

User avatar
Weatherboy1
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1189
Age: 49
Joined: Mon Jul 05, 2004 1:50 pm
Location: Jupiter/Sarasota, FL

#2976 Postby Weatherboy1 » Wed Jul 10, 2013 10:52 am

The way I see it, Chantal was on her death bed overnight. But now she is recharging quite a bit, with some of the heaviest convection since she was entering the eastern Caribbean. Not only that, she looks set to miss the lion's share of the island of Hispanola, if not ALL of it. And she is transitioning from the Eastern Caribbean (a dead zone for storms historically) to the Western Caribbean (a much more healthy location, climatologically speaking). Sure, shear is going to be an issue and there may be some landmasses to deal with. But I'm surprised NHC is as bearish on development/maintenance of strength as they were at 11. We shall see.
0 likes   

User avatar
artist
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9792
Joined: Mon Jun 06, 2005 3:26 pm
Location: West Palm

#2977 Postby artist » Wed Jul 10, 2013 10:52 am

URNT15 KNHC 101548
AF301 0503A CHANTAL HDOB 33 20130710
153830 1643N 07110W 9250 00816 //// +200 //// 143021 022 022 001 01
153900 1642N 07111W 9251 00818 0156 +203 +199 135022 023 021 001 01
153930 1641N 07112W 9254 00813 0157 +201 +198 131021 023 028 006 01
154000 1640N 07113W 9247 00819 0155 +204 +201 145020 022 028 006 00
154030 1638N 07115W 9245 00820 0155 +206 +194 150024 025 021 002 00
154100 1637N 07116W 9254 00812 0155 +206 +192 151024 024 017 002 00
154130 1636N 07117W 9249 00817 0157 +205 +194 148022 024 019 000 00
154200 1635N 07118W 9250 00816 0156 +205 +194 145023 023 017 001 00
154230 1634N 07119W 9248 00819 0157 +205 +194 147022 023 017 000 00
154300 1633N 07120W 9250 00816 0156 +202 +195 150022 022 014 001 00
154330 1632N 07121W 9249 00818 0156 +200 +197 149021 022 012 001 00
154400 1631N 07122W 9248 00818 0157 +200 +198 151020 021 010 001 00
154430 1630N 07124W 9250 00816 0156 +201 +195 156021 022 009 000 00
154500 1629N 07125W 9249 00816 0155 +205 +194 155021 022 010 000 00
154530 1628N 07126W 9248 00817 0155 +204 +193 156021 022 014 000 00
154600 1627N 07127W 9249 00816 0154 +205 +193 155022 022 014 000 00
154630 1626N 07128W 9250 00815 0154 +203 +194 153021 022 012 000 00
154700 1625N 07130W 9248 00815 0154 +205 +193 151021 022 011 000 00
154730 1624N 07131W 9249 00815 0153 +204 +194 151021 021 011 000 00
154800 1623N 07133W 9249 00813 0152 +204 +197 151021 021 009 000 00
$$
;
0 likes   

tolakram
Admin
Admin
Posts: 20009
Age: 62
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)

Re: ATL: CHANTAL - Models

#2978 Postby tolakram » Wed Jul 10, 2013 10:53 am

So the takeaway, if it comes to fruition, is that the GFS correctly predicted the formation of a weak storm but was too right biased in the longer term. The euro missed formation, which is somewhat common, and really only showed a small storm on a few runs and never got excited about it. I think the accuracy of all models has improved to the point where surprises, like a strong storm when the 2 top models show next to nothing, just aren't going to happen very often anymore.
0 likes   
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
artist
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9792
Joined: Mon Jun 06, 2005 3:26 pm
Location: West Palm

Re: ATL: CHANTAL - Recon

#2979 Postby artist » Wed Jul 10, 2013 10:56 am

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
tailgater
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3339
Joined: Sun Jul 11, 2004 9:13 pm
Location: St. Amant La.

Re: ATL: CHANTAL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2980 Postby tailgater » Wed Jul 10, 2013 10:58 am

:uarrow: :uarrow: DT, Danny Thomas, Terrio or Dick Tracy? sorry I couldn't help myself. :roll:
I guess we won't get a VDM out of those passes?
Last edited by tailgater on Wed Jul 10, 2013 11:02 am, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


Return to “2013”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 10 guests