ATL: CHANTAL - Post-Tropical

[artist]

000
URNT15 KNHC 101642
AF301 0503A CHANTAL HDOB 38 20130710
162830 1625N 07304W 9248 00808 0146 +205 +199 036032 033 032 000 03
162900 1623N 07304W 9249 00808 0146 +203 +197 041031 032 032 000 00
162930 1621N 07304W 9249 00810 0145 +206 +189 040032 033 030 000 00
163000 1619N 07305W 9246 00810 0146 +203 +190 039033 034 030 000 00
163030 1617N 07305W 9249 00807 0146 +202 +195 037031 034 027 001 00
163100 1616N 07305W 9250 00806 0145 +201 +199 038029 031 027 000 01
163130 1614N 07305W 9246 00812 0146 +205 +192 035032 033 026 000 00
163200 1612N 07306W 9252 00806 0144 +209 +191 037030 033 024 000 00
163230 1610N 07306W 9248 00809 0144 +210 +193 039028 028 024 000 00
163300 1608N 07306W 9249 00809 0145 +210 +192 038027 027 026 000 00
163330 1607N 07306W 9248 00809 0144 +210 +192 038028 028 026 000 00
163400 1605N 07307W 9250 00808 0145 +207 +195 038028 028 025 000 00
163430 1603N 07307W 9249 00810 0145 +206 +192 037029 029 024 000 00
163500 1601N 07307W 9250 00808 0146 +205 +195 038030 031 024 001 00
163530 1600N 07307W 9253 00804 0146 +203 +198 041029 030 025 001 03
163600 1558N 07308W 9247 00810 0145 +206 +198 045027 029 029 002 00
163630 1556N 07308W 9248 00811 0145 +206 +199 042021 026 030 003 01
163700 1554N 07308W 9254 00805 //// +205 //// 049024 025 021 000 01
163730 1553N 07308W 9249 00809 //// +202 //// 049025 026 018 000 01
163800 1551N 07309W 9250 00809 //// +205 //// 047028 030 018 000 01
$$
;

[djmikey]

Im shocked no one has mentioned the NHC track yet. Why did they curve to the east when majority of the models have been showing a westward turn in and around FL? Is the remains of Chantel out running the high building in? Can someone shed some light on this? Just curious. Thanks

[AdamFirst]

man thing just does not want to give up.

She's taken body blows and Haymakers to the face and is somehow still rolling. Everybody was ready to pull the plug at 11 AM, and many people still are.

[Aric Dunn]

man thing just does not want to give up.

She's taken body blows and Haymakers to the face and is somehow still rolling. Everybody was ready to pull the plug at 11 AM, and many people still are.

been gone since last night... just looked at the long loops it jumped a good couple hundred miles west ...

[Bocadude85]

man thing just does not want to give up.

She's taken body blows and Haymakers to the face and is somehow still rolling. Everybody was ready to pull the plug at 11 AM, and many people still are.

been gone since last night... just looked at the long loops it jumped a good couple hundred miles west ...

Yea she may end up in the eastern gulf

[northjaxpro]

A few years ago an open wave stalled over Daytona Beach and dumped 22 inches of rain in 24 hours. If the remnants of Chantal combine with the upper level disturbance over the Bahamas it could be a prolific rain maker. You can never underestimate the rainfall from a tropical system, named or not.

Yes. This is my major concern going towrads the end of this week into the weekend. The disturbance in the Florida Straits has not moved out to the west as forecasted a few days ago. Also, the disturbance remains very energetic with the increasing 850 mb vorticty analyzed earlier today. My concern is that what ever is left of Chantal and this disturbance meandering around down in the Straits are going to interact in time and possibly create a scenario of bringing some torrential rainfall amounts across the peninsula. For me, that is really looking like a real possibility right now heading into the upcoming weekend.

[floridasun78]

what hightest wind report by plane?

[lhpfish]

Am I missing something? It looks good to me...

NOT A FORECAST

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif

[artist]

[artist]

URNT15 KNHC 101648
AF301 0503A CHANTAL HDOB 39 20130710
163830 1549N 07309W 9247 00811 0146 +207 +205 047026 030 018 000 01
163900 1547N 07309W 9255 00804 //// +205 //// 051022 025 019 000 01
163930 1546N 07309W 9248 00811 //// +205 //// 049021 022 018 000 01
164000 1544N 07310W 9249 00809 //// +205 //// 049023 024 012 000 01
164030 1544N 07310W 9249 00809 0147 +205 +205 047025 025 013 000 01
164100 1541N 07310W 9251 00808 0146 +205 +204 046025 025 012 000 00
164130 1539N 07310W 9248 00812 0146 +208 +201 044025 026 012 000 00
164200 1537N 07311W 9248 00811 0146 +210 +199 047025 025 013 000 00
164230 1535N 07311W 9248 00812 0145 +210 +193 049025 026 013 000 00
164300 1534N 07311W 9252 00806 0146 +210 +194 053024 024 013 001 00
164330 1534N 07311W 9252 00806 0147 +206 +198 051024 024 014 001 00
164400 1530N 07312W 9246 00813 0148 +205 +196 050022 024 012 001 00
164430 1529N 07312W 9249 00811 0147 +205 +198 048020 022 013 001 00
164500 1527N 07312W 9252 00809 0147 +205 +195 052020 020 015 000 00
164530 1525N 07312W 9249 00811 0146 +209 +191 052020 021 013 000 00
164600 1524N 07313W 9248 00811 0147 +210 +191 052020 020 015 000 00
164630 1522N 07313W 9249 00811 0146 +210 +189 056019 019 015 000 00
164700 1520N 07313W 9248 00812 0146 +210 +191 056018 019 012 000 00
164730 1518N 07313W 9249 00810 0146 +211 +191 057016 017 013 000 00
164800 1517N 07314W 9250 00810 0146 +211 +194 064015 016 012 001 00
$$
;

[Jevo]

the NAVGEM is notorious for not being correct in the long term. And wxman57, a pro met, just stated if anything got going it would probably end up in the BOC toward Mexico, due to the synoptics.

The NAVGEM was just put into service 5 months ago, this being it's first season running at full resolution. At this point I don't believe we have that much data to support a statement of the model being notorious for doing anything yet. I do recall however that the NAVGEM as long as 4 days ago was showing Chantel going south of Cuba and into the BOC/GOM, which most of us scoffed at.

true, Jevo, with its upgrades. Thanks for correcting me on that.

Nah.. us old timers around here don't correct each other, we just provide further insight into previous statements. I can't count how many times over there years someone has given me more insight.. Mostly wxman and Mwatkins. If this board has taught me anything it's to do a lot of research on my own, then try to sound smarter than I really am, as proven by my signature. Glad to see ya back this year artist

[artist]

[Zanthe]

Am I missing something? It looks good to me...

NOT A FORECAST

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif

The convection's strong, but there might not be a closed LLC. Kind of like pre-Fay over Hispaniola. Looks great. It walks like a duck, quacks like a duck, does other duck like things. Just have to see what recon finds.

[lhpfish]

Sorry, forgot about that rule.

[artist]

000
URNT15 KNHC 101658
AF301 0503A CHANTAL HDOB 40 20130710
164830 1515N 07314W 9248 00813 0146 +209 +196 065014 015 013 000 00
164900 1514N 07314W 9250 00809 0146 +210 +194 060014 015 014 000 00
164930 1512N 07314W 9249 00811 0147 +210 +192 068013 014 014 000 03
165000 1511N 07313W 9251 00808 0146 +208 +192 090010 010 014 000 00
165030 1509N 07312W 9245 00814 0146 +210 +187 086010 010 014 000 00
165100 1508N 07311W 9249 00809 0146 +205 +194 090010 010 013 000 00
165130 1507N 07310W 9249 00809 0145 +205 +197 087010 010 015 000 03
165200 1506N 07309W 9248 00810 0146 +206 +197 093010 010 /// /// 03
165230 1506N 07308W 9249 00808 0144 +210 +194 102011 012 008 001 00
165300 1507N 07306W 9250 00806 0144 +210 +195 101012 012 014 000 00
165330 1509N 07305W 9237 00824 0148 +210 +190 100011 012 014 000 00
165400 1510N 07304W 9250 00811 0149 +214 +183 107011 011 016 001 00
165430 1511N 07303W 9238 00829 0155 +210 +183 117011 012 018 000 00
165500 1513N 07301W 9246 00823 0159 +210 +188 125012 013 017 000 03
165530 1514N 07300W 9247 00823 0158 +210 +188 132013 013 017 000 00
165600 1516N 07258W 9250 00819 0160 +206 +189 128014 015 017 000 00
165630 1517N 07257W 9251 00817 0160 +201 +196 132015 015 018 000 00
165700 1518N 07255W 9244 00828 0162 +200 +193 132015 016 016 000 00
165730 1520N 07253W 9249 00821 0161 +203 +187 132015 016 017 000 00
165800 1522N 07252W 9249 00822 0161 +205 +185 128015 015 017 000 00
$$
;

[ROCK]

with rapid scan you can get up close.....to me it looks like the MLC or whats left of the LLC or an eddie is out front somewhat of the ball of convection....covered up so that is good....

under DR and heading to Jam

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

[artist]

[Blown Away]

Almost looks like she has slowed a little and has a northerly component...

[Bocadude85]

Almost looks like she has slowed a little and has a northerly component...

I agree she does appear to have slowed down

[tolakram]

loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=10

Looking at the last few frames, lower blob of convection died off, though recently refired. I see low level clouds streaming away from the upper blob and cloudless skies everywhere. Recon is making an important pass coming up in just a few minutes.