ATL: CHANTAL - Post-Tropical

[artist]

000
URNT15 KNHC 101708
AF301 0503A CHANTAL HDOB 41 20130710
165830 1523N 07250W 9249 00821 0159 +205 +184 132015 015 017 000 00
165900 1525N 07249W 9249 00821 0158 +209 +184 134016 016 016 000 00
165930 1526N 07247W 9248 00821 0158 +210 +182 138016 016 014 000 00
170000 1528N 07245W 9250 00820 0159 +210 +188 126014 015 012 000 00
170030 1529N 07244W 9248 00824 0158 +217 +183 124012 013 012 000 03
170100 1531N 07242W 9250 00821 0159 +215 +180 116012 013 013 000 00
170130 1532N 07241W 9246 00824 0160 +212 +187 106011 013 011 000 03
170200 1534N 07239W 9249 00822 0160 +215 +186 103010 011 012 000 00
170230 1536N 07238W 9207 00862 0160 +212 +182 105011 013 010 000 03
170300 1538N 07237W 9226 00845 0162 +206 +182 108014 015 011 000 00
170330 1539N 07236W 9274 00792 0153 +213 +183 099012 013 011 000 00
170400 1541N 07235W 9248 00809 0144 +214 +179 098013 014 009 000 00
170430 1542N 07234W 9250 00807 0144 +209 +185 106015 016 009 000 03
170500 1544N 07234W 9250 00804 0143 +206 +190 103017 018 010 000 00
170530 1545N 07234W 9250 00803 0142 +203 +198 105015 017 012 001 00
170600 1547N 07234W 9249 00807 0141 +205 +199 109013 014 016 000 00
170630 1549N 07235W 9248 00806 0140 +205 +201 122015 017 013 000 00
170700 1550N 07235W 9246 00806 0138 +211 +196 124016 017 014 000 00
170730 1552N 07235W 9252 00802 0140 +206 +201 124017 018 013 000 00
170800 1554N 07235W 9246 00808 0139 +211 +195 123017 017 013 000 00
$$
;

[robbielyn]

yes it does look like an llc. and its westerly not northerly

[floridasun78]

that slow moving ull to west of CHANTAL starting shear CHANTAL you can see on Tropical Atlantic - Visible Loop http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-vis.html

[chris_fit]

Looking at the Vis Sat imagery - I can't find any evidence of a CoC - recon might prove me wrong any minute, but that's just what I see.

[artist]

what hightest wind report by plane?

36 knots by SFMR in the last hour or so.

[artist]

[artist]

The NAVGEM was just put into service 5 months ago, this being it's first season running at full resolution. At this point I don't believe we have that much data to support a statement of the model being notorious for doing anything yet. I do recall however that the NAVGEM as long as 4 days ago was showing Chantel going south of Cuba and into the BOC/GOM, which most of us scoffed at.

true, Jevo, with its upgrades. Thanks for correcting me on that.

Nah.. us old timers around here don't correct each other, we just provide further insight into previous statements. I can't count how many times over there years someone has given me more insight.. Mostly wxman and Mwatkins. If this board has taught me anything it's to do a lot of research on my own, then try to sound smarter than I really am, as proven by my signature. Glad to see ya back this year artist

you too, Jevo.

[artist]

URNT15 KNHC 101718
AF301 0503A CHANTAL HDOB 42 20130710
170830 1555N 07235W 9250 00806 0140 +210 +194 125017 018 012 000 00
170900 1557N 07235W 9250 00804 0141 +208 +195 123016 018 013 001 00
170930 1559N 07235W 9249 00804 0140 +203 +199 123015 015 017 000 00
171000 1600N 07235W 9245 00809 0140 +207 +196 129017 018 014 002 00
171030 1602N 07235W 9248 00806 0138 +218 +191 133016 018 017 000 00
171100 1604N 07235W 9250 00805 0144 +199 +196 129015 018 014 000 01
171130 1605N 07235W 9251 00804 0147 +194 +192 103009 013 019 000 01
171200 1607N 07235W 9244 00815 0146 +203 +186 087009 011 018 000 03
171230 1608N 07236W 9246 00811 0148 +201 +182 082010 011 015 000 00
171300 1608N 07238W 9248 00810 0149 +194 +193 057011 012 021 000 01
171330 1608N 07240W 9255 00801 //// +195 //// 056013 014 025 000 01
171400 1608N 07241W 9244 00812 //// +196 //// 055013 015 025 000 05
171430 1608N 07243W 9253 00804 0147 +198 //// 049012 013 019 000 01
171500 1608N 07245W 9248 00812 //// +195 //// 050015 016 018 000 01
171530 1608N 07247W 9246 00811 //// +201 //// 050015 016 019 000 01
171600 1608N 07248W 9254 00803 0149 +197 +197 046016 017 022 000 05
171630 1609N 07250W 9246 00812 0151 +196 //// 048016 017 /// /// 05
171700 1610N 07250W 9235 00829 0158 +195 +194 066015 016 021 000 01
171730 1612N 07250W 9246 00822 0160 +198 +194 068018 019 020 000 00
171800 1614N 07250W 9246 00825 0161 +198 +194 062018 019 018 000 00

[artist]

[northjaxpro]

that slow moving ull to west of CHANTAL starting shear CHANTAL you can see on Tropical Atlantic - Visible Loop http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-vis.html

Yes, that feature is helping to create some of the problems hindering Chantal.

[SouthDadeFish]

Recon isn't finding anything that justifies a tropical cyclone in my opinion. Looks like a wave...

[robbielyn]

yes it does look like an llc. and its westerly not northerly

I take that back. That no llc. sorry got excited. but upon zooming in I see that its not. At least not yet

[SouthDadeFish]

The trough axis doesn't even seem to be that sharp anymore. Hardly any due S or N winds....

[ScottNAtlanta]

By weakening...Chantal might be preserved enough to fight another day. If it had tried to cross Hispaniola, it probably would have dissipated. As is, its going to slide underneath as an open wave, but still with a little something left to develop possibly

[floridasun78]

i think plane going final run were low could be at their dont find it their going home

[SouthFloridawx]

If you look at this loop, you can see a circulation run into Hispaniola and that's where it is now.

[chaser1]

Looking at the Vis Sat imagery - I can't find any evidence of a CoC - recon might prove me wrong any minute, but that's just what I see.

Looks to me to be right under the southern most small area of firing connection, at 16.2N & 73W. Larger area to the north and east would appear to me to be the decoupled mid-level vorticity (and quite wound down). I think any near term reorganization however unlikely, would have to occur from the point of the low-level center. More that likely this will end up appearing as a naked swirl by sometime later tonight or tomorrow, and probably continue on a mor or less 280 heading.

[artist]

URNT15 KNHC 101728
AF301 0503A CHANTAL HDOB 43 20130710
171830 1616N 07250W 9250 00818 0159 +201 +186 053019 019 021 001 00
171900 1618N 07250W 9252 00814 0157 +205 +183 053019 020 022 000 00
171930 1620N 07250W 9248 00817 0155 +206 +180 058017 018 025 000 00
172000 1622N 07250W 9250 00815 0155 +204 +182 051018 018 025 001 00
172030 1624N 07251W 9249 00818 0157 +205 +190 051018 018 027 001 00
172100 1626N 07251W 9248 00818 0154 +207 +193 047018 019 026 001 00
172130 1628N 07251W 9250 00814 0151 +210 +195 053018 019 028 000 00
172200 1630N 07251W 9254 00808 0150 +210 +196 047018 019 029 000 00
172230 1631N 07251W 9244 00819 0148 +214 +196 039016 016 030 000 00
172300 1633N 07251W 9254 00807 0145 +218 +196 030014 015 030 000 00
172330 1635N 07251W 9245 00813 0142 +220 +196 026012 013 031 002 00
172400 1637N 07251W 9251 00807 0143 +214 +199 018017 017 031 002 00
172430 1639N 07251W 9252 00805 0138 +223 +197 017014 017 030 001 00
172500 1641N 07251W 9247 00812 0141 +220 +195 022017 018 030 000 00
172530 1643N 07251W 9251 00808 0142 +220 +195 017019 019 030 000 00
172600 1645N 07251W 9247 00812 0143 +219 +194 019016 018 030 000 00
172630 1647N 07251W 9249 00812 0143 +220 +194 027016 018 031 000 00
172700 1649N 07251W 9261 00798 0142 +220 +196 042020 023 031 000 00
172730 1650N 07251W 9260 00793 0137 +209 +203 049023 024 030 001 00
172800 1652N 07251W 9250 00795 0134 +206 //// 044022 025 031 001 01
$$

[artist]

[artist]

000
URNT15 KNHC 101738
AF301 0503A CHANTAL HDOB 44 20130710
172830 1653N 07250W 9244 00806 0133 +209 +205 048021 025 031 008 00
172900 1654N 07249W 9233 00814 0136 +206 //// 052022 026 035 005 01
172930 1655N 07248W 9239 00812 //// +210 //// 080027 028 035 005 01
173000 1657N 07248W 9271 00779 0135 +211 //// 074024 027 034 001 05
173030 1658N 07247W 9240 00810 0135 +211 +211 086018 024 038 002 01
173100 1658N 07245W 9246 00806 0137 +211 +211 092018 019 038 000 05
173130 1659N 07244W 9245 00810 0138 +215 +209 101018 019 037 000 00
173200 1659N 07242W 9236 00824 0144 +220 +201 120023 027 037 000 00
173230 1700N 07241W 9251 00812 0147 +220 +187 132027 029 036 001 03
173300 1700N 07239W 9252 00812 0150 +216 +190 134026 028 037 002 00
173330 1700N 07237W 9246 00820 0154 +211 +188 138028 029 038 001 00
173400 1701N 07235W 9242 00829 0159 +207 +184 140030 030 038 000 00
173430 1701N 07234W 9247 00822 0162 +206 +176 146033 034 034 001 00
173500 1701N 07232W 9251 00822 0164 +208 +167 142033 034 032 001 00
173530 1701N 07230W 9242 00832 0166 +205 +160 138031 032 030 001 00
173600 1701N 07228W 9250 00824 0167 +204 +164 134030 031 028 000 00
173630 1702N 07226W 9250 00824 0168 +200 +162 139029 029 029 000 00
173700 1702N 07224W 9250 00825 0169 +196 +183 143031 032 027 000 00
173730 1702N 07222W 9248 00828 0169 +195 +193 146033 034 026 001 00
173800 1702N 07219W 9248 00830 0170 +200 +192 149037 038 027 000 00
$$