ATL: CHANTAL - Post-Tropical

[northtxboy]

If chantal is gone what do we do now?

[ROCK]

12Z NAVGEM----now over to the tip of FL and skirts the WC of FL in the GOM....whats left of her anyway...

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

[ozonepete]

Thanks for this remark . Nice analysis. You, you're always trained, maybe better that Chantal Where is she going? She wants to be faster than Lewis Hamilton?

Maybe she's got better tires? lol

Thanks for the update as well. Martinica took a pounding.

[ozonepete]

If chantal is gone what do we do now?

Lol, we watch the MLC tonight and then the new wave coming up behind it.

[Gustywind]

If chantal is gone what do we do now?

Let it rest in peace as the season is long and full of surprises an will bring many things on this wonderful board.

['CaneFreak]

We watch and wait for a new low level center to take shape. There is still plenty of mid level vorticity and upper level shear is beginning to drop pretty quickly now that the upper low to the north is dying.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

If chantal is gone what do we do now?

[TheStormExpert]

This can still affect SFL even it's an open wave now it could reintensify once in Florida straits. So certainly bares watching

Yeah it could, but it is only the first half of July so I would say the odds are 25% or less.

[Frank2]

Might bring some good rains to Florida as a wave or area of disturbed weather - July systems usually dissipate for one reason or another so per the month we're in the outcome is about right...

Frank

[Gustywind]

Thanks for this remark . Nice analysis. You, you're always trained, maybe better that Chantal Where is she going? She wants to be faster than Lewis Hamilton?

Maybe she's got better tires? lol

Thanks for the update as well. Martinica took a pounding.

Be welcomed, untrained Ozonepete . A serious pounding as ex Mike Tyson punch; lol. . Let's see if Chantal continues to fight like a warrior, what a fight against herself .

[northtxboy]

She was such a good little storm. She was a true fighter to the very end. She did things I aint never seen before. I have respect for chantal.

[BUCMAN48]

Since we are talking about Chantel still having some type of circualtion- what are the chances that she can regenerate into a storm/hurricane and how quickly can that transition take place- any examples from the past?

[Gustywind]

Latest SSD numbers for Chantal...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/tdpositions.html


10/1745 UTC 17.8N 71.4W OVERLAND CHANTAL
10/1145 UTC 15.6N 71.0W T1.5/1.5 CHANTAL
10/0545 UTC 15.7N 67.3W T1.0/2.0 CHANTAL

[jlauderdal]

Since we are talking about Chantel still having some type of circualtion- what are the chances that she can regenerate into a storm/hurricane and how quickly can that transition take place- any examples from the past?

see below ozonpete, jlauderdal posts from an hour ago

[Hurricane Alexis]

This can still affect SFL even it's an open wave now it could reintensify once in Florida straits. So certainly bares watching

Yeah it could, but it is only the first half of July so I would say the odds are 25% or less.

CMC had a solution like that last night.

[artist]

Latest SSD numbers for Chantal...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/tdpositions.html


10/1745 UTC 17.8N 71.4W OVERLAND CHANTAL
10/1145 UTC 15.6N 71.0W T1.5/1.5 CHANTAL
10/0545 UTC 15.7N 67.3W T1.0/2.0 CHANTAL

interesting, so they think her circulation is overland.

[jlauderdal]

Might bring some good rains to Florida as a wave or area of disturbed weather - July systems usually dissipate for one reason or another so per the month we're in the outcome is about right...

Frank

this mid-week Bahamas system has been a bust so maybe chantal remnants can energize things later in the week

[ozonepete]

Since we are talking about Chantel still having some type of circualtion- what are the chances that she can regenerate into a storm/hurricane and how quickly can that transition take place- any examples from the past?

She's got a 50/50 chance imho. Very good mid-level circulation that will be over water later tonight and tomorrow. Strong MLCs can often put down a new LLC and regenerate if strong convection is sufficiently widespread and persistent. We have seen this many times but each case is different. In 1954 cat 4 Hurricane Hazel crossed Haiti and fell to Cat 1 or maybe even a TS in maybe 6 hours, then regenerated back to cat 4 a couple of days later. It al depends on how much punch it keeps at mid-levels and of course the surrounding environment. There's a lot of "ifs" with Chantal.

[BUCMAN48]

Thank you jlauderdal- just went back and read yours and 0zonpete's posts-great stuff-

Thank you.

[northtxboy]

If chantal is gone what do we do now?

[jlauderdal]

If chantal is gone what do we do now?

well with a population of about 200 in windom, tx im not quite sure what you will be doing but we will be watching this energy split that happened and see what happens..maybe you and Rock will get some moisture from the left overs...otherwise not much on the tropical map for your part of the world for now