ATL: CHANTAL - Post-Tropical

[ozonepete]

Here is the 18z update 72 hour forecast by TAFB. I know many will open their eyes about that arrow.

http://oi43.tinypic.com/2luwbbn.jpg

Lol, yeah, Luis. Mine popped!

I guess they expect a flattened weak disturbance that's so shallow it will move along in the trades. Bad forecast, imho...

[ozonepete]

Anyone else having problems with the SSD satellite flash loops? Theyy either don't work at all or stop at 1615 for me. ????

[SFLcane]

Here is the 18z update 72 hour forecast by TAFB. I know many will open their eyes about that arrow.

http://oi43.tinypic.com/2luwbbn.jpg

Lol, yeah, Luis. Mine popped!

I guess they expect a flattened weak disturbance that's so shallow it will move along in the trades. Bad forecast, imho...

Conditions do look pretty favorable in the straits north of cuba

[meriland23]

is there any significance to this burst of convection it has been firing lately?

hi meriland! Big bursts of convection are always significant for a forming or struggling system. If the convection is widespread, concentrated and most important, persistent for many hours, then it indicates strengthening is likely or happening. If it bursts up and dies on and off that's not so positive for strengthening. It is the most important thing to watch for with this system for the next 24 hours since persistent widespread convection means the mid-level center is intact and if the mid-level center gets out over warm water and there's low or no sear, it has a good chance at redeveloping.

I can't tell very well if convection is being 'constant' lol...



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[KBBOCA]

I'm amazed to see how many people are on here given how much Chantal has fallen apart. But of course, she's getting closer to the US Mainland, especially S. FL, and there's always a chance that she strengthens again.

This has sure been an interesting storm to watch for so early in the season. Full of surprises - especially that she could form at all while speeding so quickly across the Atlantic and with so much SAL to her north at one point. She really kept moistening the environment and fought of the SAL.

I'm still watching, even if she is downgraded tonight.

[LtDanOhh]

is there a weather or storm terms/ abbreviations glossary?

[jlauderdal]

I'm amazed to see how many people are on here given how much Chantal has fallen apart. But of course, she's getting closer to the US Mainland, especially S. FL, and there's always a chance that she strengthens again.

This has sure been an interesting storm to watch for so early in the season. Full of surprises - especially that she could form at all while speeding so quickly across the Atlantic and with so much SAL to her north at one point. She really kept moistening the environment and fought of the SAL.

I'm still watching, even if she is downgraded tonight.

these situations are a real test to see who is dedicated especially if they aren't from the affected area e.g Rock, ozone, cyclone

a weakened chantal might actually turn out to save her as she deals with the hostile conditions

[gigabite]

Chantal has gained some weight since sunday. She 700 percent more massive. That is 200 percent a day.

_________________
Personal Forecast Disclaimer: This is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just my opinion and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is also NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Evil Jeremy]

is there a weather or storm terms/ abbreviations glossary?

We have one here!

viewtopic.php?f=61&t=95832

[Florida1118]

...CHANTAL DEGENERATED INTO A WAVE... ...COULD STILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS...

AFTER FINDING SOMETHING RESEMBLING A CENTER EARLIER TODAY...THE SAME
AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE SPENT SEVERAL HOURS INVESTIGATING
THE STORM AND DETERMINED THAT CHANTAL NO LONGER HAS A CLOSED
CIRCULATION. THE DATA SHOWED A VERY STRONG WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE AXIS OF A WAVE...WHICH IS NOW ALONG 73 OR 74 DEGREES WEST
LONGITUDE.

THE REMNANTS ARE STILL ACCOMPANIED BY A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED
WEATHER AND STRONG WINDS BETWEEN 40 TO 45 KNOTS EAST OF THE WAVE
AXIS. EVEN THOUGH CHANTAL HAS DEGENERATED INTO A WAVE...THE THREAT
OF HEAVY RAINS OVER HISPANIOLA WILL CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER DAY OR SO.
THIS WEATHER WILL SPREAD WESTWARD AND THEN NORTHWESTWARD OVER
JAMAICA AND EASTERN CUBA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS SO. BOTH THE
ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOW THE REMNANTS OF CHANTAL MOVING INTO
THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS AND NEAR THE FLORIDA PENINSULA IN A COUPLE
OF DAYS.

GLOBAL MODELS SHOW STRONG WIND SHEAR IN THE AREA OF THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN...CUBA AND FLORIDA WHERE THE REMNANTS OF CHANTAL ARE
HEADED. THIS WILL PROBABLY INHIBIT ANY RE-DEVELOPMENT.
NEVERTHELESS...THIS DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR ANY SIGNS OF REDEVELOPMENT...AND AIR FORCE HURRICANE
HUNTER PLANES ARE SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE DISTURBANCE AGAIN
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...IF NECESSARY.

[Janie2006]

Yah, heading west at nearly 30 mph, no wonder she can't keep anything going, it's like having a guillotine following her around.

Agree , and that's already an outstanding performance from Chantal ( July TS) being able to maintained a such fast speed average of 40km/h at least 4 days . Lowest was 41 km/h , Monday 2PM near the 53W: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2013/CHANTAL.shtml?

Difficult to have always energy that this speed!

That's what my untrained eyes have particulary seen especially with this one.

Ha, I wouldn't call either of you untrained! You two have been seeing things right as long as I've been around here. It is pretty amazing that Chantal stayed together as long as it did. I haven't looked at the numbers yet but I guess the mid-level winds were a little fast themselves and blowing wnw as well - this allowed the low and mid-levels to stay pretty close together even at the screaming low-level pace. Now the mid-level circulation is feeling the tug of that ULL over Florida and is moving more northerly while the low-level trades keep going west at a fast pace. In hindsight the mid-level flow would have to split off. I'm just wondering what will happen when the MLC gets back over water and the low-level winds slow down a little near Cuba. I'd only give it a 50/50 chance of regenerating.

We've had good teachers.

I have to hand it to Chantal. We know that tropical systems aren't alive, that they don't and can't have minds of their own, but *darned* if this storm hasn't defied the odds for most of its life. Gotta keep your eyes peeled. I wouldn't be surprised to see regeneration; however, I'd be equally unsurprised if it remained what it is now. Either way, people in the path have to watch for flooding rains, and we know how destructive they can be, especially in places like the DC and Haiti.

[Fyzn94]

She's dead, Jim.

[brunota2003]

is there a weather or storm terms/ abbreviations glossary?

We have one here!

viewtopic.php?f=61&t=95832

Also, the section of the forum that thread is in:
viewforum.php?f=61

[artist]

First death from Tropical Storm Chantal
PORT-AU-PRINCE, Haiti — Tropical Storm Chantal skirted the southern coasts of the Dominican Republic and Haiti on Wednesday, losing force but heavy rain still posed a threat to some of the region's most vulnerable people.

The storm did not make landfall on the island of Hispaniola shared by the two nations. But Chantal brought heavy rain to areas prone to flooding and landslides in places where many people live in flimsy homes of plywood and corrugated steel.

In both countries, people fortified houses with tarps and wood and gathered supplies, largely ignoring warnings to leave their neighborhoods.

"We're going to wait until it's over. We're already used to this," said 36-year-old Sergio Guzman, who along the banks of a river near Santo Domingo.

A Dominican firefighter was killed in the community of Maimon, about 50 miles (85 kilometers) north of the capital, Santo Domingo, when he was swept away by floodwaters as he tried to clear a storm drain, said Luis Luna, director of the country's civil defense agency. The death of 26-year-old Juan Ramon Rodriguez was believed to be the first caused by Chantal, which began moving through the Caribbean on Tuesday.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/huff-wire ... l-weather/

[KBBOCA]

is there a weather or storm terms/ abbreviations glossary?

Hi Lt. Dan. Welcome to Storm 2K, it's a great place to learn!
Check out the Tropical Reference Library over on the Talking Tropics forum of Storm 2K

viewforum.php?f=61

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
REMNANTS OF CHANTAL ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032013
500 PM EDT WED JUL 10 2013

...CHANTAL DEGENERATED INTO A WAVE...
...COULD STILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.5N 73.7W
ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM ESE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 260 MI...415 KM S OF THE EASTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1012 MB...29.88 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA AND THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAVE
DISCONTINUED ALL THE REMAINING TROPICAL STORM WATCHES AND WARNINGS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

THERE ARE NO COASTAL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS OR WATCHES IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN EASTERN CUBA...JAMIACA AND THE BAHAMAS SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE REMNANTS OF CHANTAL.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE OF THE
UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT CHANTAL HAS
DEGENERATED INTO A TROPICAL WAVE. AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE
REMNANTS OF CHANTAL WERE LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.5 NORTH...
LONGITUDE 73.7 WEST. THE REMNANTS OF CHANTAL ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD
OVER JAMAICA AND EASTERN CUBA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS AND OVER OR NEAR THE FLORIDA PENINSULA BY
FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE ARE NEAR 45
MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS COVER A LARGE AREA OVER THE WATERS MAINLY
SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1012 MB...29.88 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS COULD STILL AFFECT HAITI AND
EASTERN CUBA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

STORM SURGE...LOCALIZED COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF
ONSHORE FLOW ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH COAST OF HISPANIOLA.

RAINFALL...THE REMNANTS OF CHANTAL ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL
RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA...
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CUBA...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF HISPANIOLA.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FURTHER INFORMATION ON THE REMNANTS OF
CHANTAL WILL BE CONTAINED IN THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TROPICAL
WEATHER OUTLOOKS...AND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO
HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.


$$
FORECASTER AVILA



REMNANTS OF CHANTAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032013
500 PM EDT WED JUL 10 2013

AFTER FINDING SOMETHING RESEMBLING A CENTER EARLIER TODAY...THE SAME
AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE SPENT SEVERAL HOURS INVESTIGATING
THE STORM AND DETERMINED THAT CHANTAL NO LONGER HAS A CLOSED
CIRCULATION. THE DATA SHOWED A VERY STRONG WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE AXIS OF A WAVE...WHICH IS NOW ALONG 73 OR 74 DEGREES WEST
LONGITUDE.

THE REMNANTS ARE STILL ACCOMPANIED BY A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED
WEATHER AND STRONG WINDS BETWEEN 40 TO 45 KNOTS EAST OF THE WAVE
AXIS. EVEN THOUGH CHANTAL HAS DEGENERATED INTO A WAVE...THE THREAT
OF HEAVY RAINS OVER HISPANIOLA WILL CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER DAY OR SO.
THIS WEATHER WILL SPREAD WESTWARD AND THEN NORTHWESTWARD OVER
JAMAICA AND EASTERN CUBA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS SO. BOTH THE
ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOW THE REMNANTS OF CHANTAL MOVING INTO
THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS AND NEAR THE FLORIDA PENINSULA IN A COUPLE
OF DAYS.

GLOBAL MODELS SHOW STRONG WIND SHEAR IN THE AREA OF THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN...CUBA AND FLORIDA WHERE THE REMNANTS OF CHANTAL ARE
HEADED. THIS WILL PROBABLY INHIBIT ANY RE-DEVELOPMENT.
NEVERTHELESS...THIS DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR ANY SIGNS OF REDEVELOPMENT...AND AIR FORCE HURRICANE
HUNTER PLANES ARE SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE DISTURBANCE AGAIN
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...IF NECESSARY.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/2100Z 16.5N 73.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...REMNANTS OF CHANTAL
12H 11/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[wxman57]

She's dead, Jim.

As I said earlier, death means no chance of resurrection. There's still a chance Chantal will regenerate near Florida (one side or the other).

[HurricaneBelle]

Why is the thread titled "Post-Tropical"? It's still tropical, just now a tropical wave. Shouldn't it be "Remnants" as the NHC has designated it?

[cycloneye]

Why is the thread titled "Post-Tropical"? It's still tropical, just now a tropical wave. Shouldn't it be "Remnants" as the NHC has designated it?

Title is fixed.

[ozonepete]

She's dead, Jim.

As I said earlier, death means no chance of resurrection. There's still a chance Chantal will regenerate near Florida (one side or the other).

Yeah, I would call it on life-support. Still spinning nicely at mid-levels.