Wave in Eastern Caribbean

[AtlanticWind]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-rgb.html

New Cape Verde wave has some spin.

[floridasun78]

that one was having support last week by models

[AtlanticWind]

Looks like some banding features , models don't like it as much as 24-48 hours ago but that could change.

[floridasun78]

it was gfs have it as hurr by next monday drop it

[Hurricaneman]

Looking at this one, IMO it looks like it has as much or more potential than Chantal at this point near the Cape Verde Islands but I do think it will not maintain as well so I predict little to no development at this time

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[SouthFloridawx]

[ROCK]

got SAL all around it but a good envelope to protect it.....have to see if we have any model support in the coming days...

[SFLcane]

I see invest 96L coming soon..

[RainbowAppleJackDash]

Ehhh, this might become HURRICANE dorian (gray) believe it or not. I see a powerful storm.

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 102345
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED JUL 10 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.




...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CAPE VERDE ISLAND EXTENDS FROM 17N25W
TO 9N26W MOVING W 10 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP
MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. A
MID LEVEL CYCLONIC ROTATION IS NEAR THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL
WAVE. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

[ROCK]

give it time to brew....it will be something to watch in the coming days! IMO

Gusty- sorry to say you will be our first line of defense....you guys get overlooked sometimes but for me I feel for you guys...I have been to St Croix many of times and know what they have to deal with. I know that is north of you but you get what I am saying...

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 111047
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU JUL 11 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 11N29W TO 18N28W MOVING W AT 10-15
KT. THE WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ AXIS COINCIDES
WITH A GLOBAL MODEL INDICATED 700 MB TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
VORTICITY MAXIMUM IN THE VICINITY OF 14N29W. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY SHOWS A RELATIVE MOISTURE MAXIMUM FROM 11N-17N
BETWEEN 24W-34W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-16N
BETWEEN 27W-31W.

[AtlanticWind]

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS IS ALONG
30W/31W TO THE SOUTH OF 18N...MOVING WESTWARD
10 TO 15 KNOTS. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
ITCZ AND IT COINCIDES WITH A GLOBAL MODEL 700 MB
TROUGH. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN THE ITCZ FROM
9N TO 15N BETWEEN 29W AND 31W.

[Florida1118]

IMO it looks like a good system and a good candidate to develop. Decent circulation and structure, however the main problem seems to be dry air. Looks like it'll be battling that over the next couple days as well...other than that though, might be a contender down the road to develop. I'd expect this to be invested soon, at least in a day or two. Even though no model develops it, it has previous model support and no model picked up Chantal.








The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 111047
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU JUL 11 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 11N29W TO 18N28W MOVING W AT 10-15
KT. THE WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ AXIS COINCIDES
WITH A GLOBAL MODEL INDICATED 700 MB TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
VORTICITY MAXIMUM IN THE VICINITY OF 14N29W. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY SHOWS A RELATIVE MOISTURE MAXIMUM FROM 11N-17N
BETWEEN 24W-34W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-16N
BETWEEN 27W-31W.

[Alyono]

not much of a threat. Already near 15N and will likely head into the open Atlantic. Big weakness in the ridge in the Central Atlantic

[SouthFloridawx]

If it doesn't develop then it will just remain a Tropical Wave and move Westward through the Atlantic.

[hurricanehunter69]

Too bad this wave isn't a little farther south. A position at around 10 north could help it spin better.

[Gustywind]

Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


000
AXNT20 KNHC 120547
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI JUL 12 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N33W TO 18N33W MOVING W AT 10-15
KT. THE WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ AXIS AND COINCIDES
WITH A GLOBAL MODEL INDICATED 700 MB TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
VORTICITY MAXIMUM IN THE VICINITY OF 15N34W. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY SHOWS A RELATIVE MOISTURE MAXIMUM FROM 10N-19N
BETWEEN 27W-36W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 06N-13N
BETWEEN 31W-37W.

[Alyono]

If it doesn't develop then it will just remain a Tropical Wave and move Westward through the Atlantic.

nope... this weak wave is heading WNW into the open Atlantic. Will remain well north of the Caribbean