ATL: CHANTAL - Post-Tropical

[AdamFirst]

Ground is completely saturated here...any enhanced tropical rains this weekend could make a bit of a mess of things

[KimmieLa]

So, what are we looking at on the Florida panhandle??

[cycloneye]

20%.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT WED JUL 10 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS ISSUED THE LAST ADVISORY ON
CHANTAL THAT DEGENERATED INTO A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE NORTH-
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA.

A TROPICAL WAVE...THE REMNANTS OF CHANTAL...IS PRODUCING WINDS
TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE AND A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT EXTEND FROM THE NORTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA
NORTHWARD ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS.
SIGNIFICANT REDEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR SO DUE TO STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS AND
THE INTERACTION WITH LAND. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAINS AND WINDS TO TROPICAL
STORM FORCE...ESPECIALLY IN SQUALLS...ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
OVER HISPANIOLA TONIGHT...THEN SPREAD OVER JAMAICA...EASTERN
CUBA...AND THE REMAINDER OF BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO
AS THE SYSTEM MOVES QUICKLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD.
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

&&
HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[northjaxpro]

I will say this. Chantal may have degenerated into an open wave, but look at how the system has expanded in size in just the past few hours. The system has developed quite a moist envelope and I certainly would not rule out potential of regenration within the next 24-36 hours, especially if the system gets into the region in and around the Florida Straits or off either coast of Florida in the next couple of days, where I think upper level conditions should improve for possible re-development.

[artist]

20%.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT WED JUL 10 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS ISSUED THE LAST ADVISORY ON
CHANTAL THAT DEGENERATED INTO A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE NORTH-
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA.

A TROPICAL WAVE...THE REMNANTS OF CHANTAL...IS PRODUCING WINDS
TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE AND A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT EXTEND FROM THE NORTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA
NORTHWARD ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS.
SIGNIFICANT REDEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR SO DUE TO STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS AND
THE INTERACTION WITH LAND. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAINS AND WINDS TO TROPICAL
STORM FORCE...ESPECIALLY IN SQUALLS...ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
OVER HISPANIOLA TONIGHT...THEN SPREAD OVER JAMAICA...EASTERN
CUBA...AND THE REMAINDER OF BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO
AS THE SYSTEM MOVES QUICKLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD.
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

&&
HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

so they give it a 20% chance to come back to life. Wonder what tomorrow will bring?

[Hurricane Alexis]

I will say this. Chantal may have degenerated into an open wave, but look at how the system has expanded in size in just the past few hours. The system has developed quite a moist envelope and I certainly would not rule out potential of regenration within the next 24-36 hours, especially if the system gets into the region in and around the Florida Straits or off either coast of Florida in the next couple of days, where I think upper level conditions should improve for possible re-development.

Yea it degenerated but still looks pretty healthy and should bring heavy rains to FL in a couple of days.


Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[ROCK]

As most of the global models have been suggesting...Chantal was not able to hang on....and there is little to suggest re-development.

However...Chantal was a sign that the deep tropics are primed (earlier than usual) and we should be prepared for later this season.

agree Jeff...everyone needs to move over to Talkin Tropic where we are discussing this wave...

[ozonepete]

Rain looks torrential in DR right now. Have to hope they don't continue and don't reach Haiti.

[cycloneye]

As most of the global models have been suggesting...Chantal was not able to hang on....and there is little to suggest re-development.

However...Chantal was a sign that the deep tropics are primed (earlier than usual) and we should be prepared for later this season.

agree Jeff...everyone needs to move over to Talkin Tropic where we are discussing this wave...

And also the train Yes, go to Talking Tropics to discuss about them.

[northjaxpro]

I will say this. Chantal may have degenerated into an open wave, but look at how the system has expanded in size in just the past few hours. The system has developed quite a moist envelope and I certainly would not rule out potential of regenration within the next 24-36 hours, especially if the system gets into the region in and around the Florida Straits or off either coast of Florida in the next couple of days, where I think upper level conditions should improve for possible re-development.

Yea it degenerated but still looks pretty healthy and should bring heavy rains to FL in a couple of days.


Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Yeah, that is what I am really concerned about for my area and the rest of the peninsula as we approach the upcoming weekend. There is so much energy of whatever beomes of the remnants of Chantal and the persistent ULL which continues to be parked over extreme South Florida and Fl Straits. It is looking as if these features may interact with each other, which could spell potential of torrential rainfall amounts this weekend across the peninsula. All of this moisture is eventually surging northward across the peninsula and with all the rain the peninsula has had so far this year, we don't need any thing like this coming for sure. But, it is a potential major concern nonetheless this weekend.

[ninel conde]

looking interesting north of hispanialoa

[CrazyC83]

Degenerated storms are treated the same way as Invests on here.

[northjaxpro]

Exactly. They can always have some chance to regenerate if conditions become more conducive for it to happen. This may happen for Chantal. We have to keep closely monitoring.

[SouthFloridawx]

This area has been firing up for a while now...

[ozonepete]

Definitely still needs to be watched. If it puts down a new LLC it will definitely be north of eastern Cuba, not south of it.

[BUCMAN48]

A very suspicious area just north of Hisponola has has been firing up The last few hours. Could a new LLC be developing there?

[hurricanekid416]

A very suspicious area just north of Hisponola has has been firing up The last few hours. Could a new LLC be developing there?

If that happens then Florida may get a tropical storm

[robbielyn]

What about the westerly sheer nhc just talked about? dont think so.

[hurricanekid416]

What about the westerly sheer nhc just talked about? dont think so.

That's is caused by the ULL which is moving west and weakening and if it gets far west enough it'll create an outflow channel

[robbielyn]

Levi cowan said way back before chantal formed this wave wouldnt make it to u.s. as a storm because of typical july hostile environment but waves after this could very well become ts' s and hurricanes. So chantal doing whats expected. I think very soon we will be happy ghis was a wave compared to whats coming down the pike. I think we will be seeing plenty of unwanted action imho.