ATL: CHANTAL - Post-Tropical

[SouthFloridawx]

If this is true then with these untrained eyes... it would appear that it will move into an area of favorable upper out-flow.

Northern vorticity is ready to exit over water. My money is on that vorticity taking over.

[ScottNAtlanta]

I had mentioned earlier today that it looked like the energy was transferring north over the water...Still looks like it is doing that. It looks like the south area is trying to fight it out with north...

[ozonepete]

Will the tenants of Chantal effect South Florida or miss us to the east?

You can look forward to Tropical Remnants Drencho over Friday and Saturday. At this point this isn't missing us to the east. Maybe to the west but I doubt it.

Drencho, lol. Yeah you guys could get pretty wet from this, unless the center turns north towards the Carolinas. But even then, with an upper low over you, you will have a lot of upper divergence which will probably allow for big convection over the state anyway.

[boca]

I think the remnants are going to miss us to the east I think because the system is getting elongated north to south and it seems like its hitting a brick wall trying to push west.

[ozonepete]

Split personality. Clearly the mountains of Haiti is splitting the entire circulation in two. You have two clear convective areas, one south of Haiti and one north, and each one has its own outflow cirrus bands! Pretty wild. I don't think I've ever seen this. But only one can win, and that looks to be the northern one heading for the Bahamas. And even that one may not survive, although it has the better chance since most of the vorticity is with that one.

[Evil Jeremy]

Split personality. Clearly the mountains of Haiti is splitting the entire circulation in two. You have two clear convective areas, one south of Haiti and one north, and each one has its own outflow cirrus bands! Pretty wild. I don't think I've ever seen this. But only one can win, and that looks to be the northern one heading for the Bahamas. And even that one may not survive, although it has the better chance since most of the vorticity is with that one.

http://i189.photobucket.com/albums/z174 ... ab6559.jpg

The general assumption has been that any reformation would happen after the remnants crossed Cuba. Since it seems much of the energy is going to the Southern Bahamas, how does that affect reformation chances, and what are the track implications should it reform?

[SouthernBreeze]

No more recon flights until at least one of the "twins" is classified as at least a TS?

[Hurricane Alexis]

Anyone think they raise the chances at 2?

[Stormlover2012]

No!!!! This thing doesn't look good fellows

[WilmingtonSandbar]

Wasn't there a system last year that did something similar and went over Haiti and split in two? If I recall, after Haiti the bottom dropped out on it and it became a very big concern again. Of course that could just me my wine soaked memories putting many years together into one thing.

[SouthFloridawx]

Also, I was checking out the steering flow and I think I found and Upper Level High moving over the Remnants of Chantal.

What do you guys think?



5 Day Loop

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/movies/wg8dlm6/wg8dlm6java.html

[ozonepete]

Split personality. Clearly the mountains of Haiti is splitting the entire circulation in two. You have two clear convective areas, one south of Haiti and one north, and each one has its own outflow cirrus bands! Pretty wild. I don't think I've ever seen this. But only one can win, and that looks to be the northern one heading for the Bahamas. And even that one may not survive, although it has the better chance since most of the vorticity is with that one.

http://i189.photobucket.com/albums/z174 ... ab6559.jpg

The general assumption has been that any reformation would happen after the remnants crossed Cuba. Since it seems much of the energy is going to the Southern Bahamas, how does that affect reformation chances, and what are the track implications should it reform?

You would think that most of the energy going to the southern Bahamas gives it a better shot since shear is pretty low there (as opposed to south of Cuba) and waters are very warm. For track it's still tricky because it depends on how fast it comes back, if it comes back. The weaker it is the shallower it will be and more west it will go. That would bring a wet but not windy storm into Florida. If it were to strengthen pretty quickly it would likely go more northward toward the Carolinas and Florida would only get a sideswipe. There aren't many worrisome options for a big windy storm over Florida unless it pulls a Jeanne and stalls out east of Florida for a while. If that happened it could get pretty strong and eventually get forced westward again into Florida when the Bermuda High pushes west again, but that doesn't seem likely right now.

[Hurricane Alexis]

Split personality. Clearly the mountains of Haiti is splitting the entire circulation in two. You have two clear convective areas, one south of Haiti and one north, and each one has its own outflow cirrus bands! Pretty wild. I don't think I've ever seen this. But only one can win, and that looks to be the northern one heading for the Bahamas. And even that one may not survive, although it has the better chance since most of the vorticity is with that one.

http://i189.photobucket.com/albums/z174 ... ab6559.jpg

The general assumption has been that any reformation would happen after the remnants crossed Cuba. Since it seems much of the energy is going to the Southern Bahamas, how does that affect reformation chances, and what are the track implications should it reform?

You would think that most of the energy going to the southern Bahamas gives it a better shot since shear is pretty low there (as opposed to south of Cuba) and waters are very warm. For track it's still tricky because it depends on how fast it comes back, if it comes back. The weaker it is the shallower it will be and more west it will go. That would bring a wet but not windy storm into Florida. If it were to strengthen pretty quickly it would likely go more northward toward the Carolinas and Florida would only get a sideswipe. There aren't many worrisome options for a big windy storm over Florida unless it pulls a Jeanne and stalls out east of Florida for a while. If that happened it could get pretty strong and eventually get forced westward again into Florida when the Bermuda High pushes west again, but that doesn't seem likely right now.

What would cause it to stall anyways?

[floridasun78]

do think she have second life? like cat 9 live or she done? for good

[ozonepete]

do think she have second life? like cat 9 live or she done? for good

The models seem to think it might. They still don't entirely give up on it but they don't seem to know what it's going to do anymore than we do, lol. Just have to wait. I definitely will keep watching it. I'll stop looking when all convection and mid circulation is gone for 24 hours.

[ozonepete]

What would cause it to stall anyways?

If steering currents collapse over it. That doesn't look too likely anymore. If it's weak it will go west-northwest. If it gets to strong TS or higher it will go more northward. But I don't see really weak steering currents ahead of it right now.

Ok, I'm hittin' the hay. See you all tomorrow.

[SouthFloridawx]

ozonepete, what do you think on my thoughts of an Upper Level High building over Chantals remnants?

[ozonepete]

ozonepete, what do you think on my thoughts of an Upper Level High building over Chantals remnants?

Sorry, I meant to comment on that but have been really busy tonight. I thought it was smart. Looks like a better than even chance for that because the ULL is moving westward and getting out of the way. In addition, a ULL just west of a TC can help establish an upper level anti-cyclone over a TC because it gets southerly winds established on the western side's upper levels.

[ozonepete]

Finally, I need to reiterate that this is starting to look like a very dangerous flood situation for DR and especially Haiti, which is so flood prone due to lack of vegetation. Don't like at all seeing all of this convection building there. Let's all hope this system gets out of there pretty soon.

[floridasun78]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-ir4.html look what look like came out of DR now north of haiti and southern bahamas