ATL: CHANTAL - Post-Tropical

[floridasun78]

their spin that area

[SouthFloridawx]

Thanks for clarifying. It's really good to learn things.

Notice the Upper Level Winds above our system 100-250mb:

http://img713.imageshack.us/img713/331/i79.gif

I realize I'm reiterating... If you look at the loop below you will notice that the steering flow (anti-cyclone looking) is moving westward and will probably push the ULL westward as well.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/movies/wg8dlm1/wg8dlm1java.html

ozonepete, what do you think on my thoughts of an Upper Level High building over Chantals remnants?

Sorry, I meant to comment on that but have been really busy tonight. I thought it was smart. Looks like a better than even chance for that because the ULL is moving westward and getting out of the way. In addition, a ULL just west of a TC can help establish an upper level anti-cyclone over a TC because it gets southerly winds established on the western side's upper levels.

[Nederlander]

So, what are we looking at on the Florida panhandle??

Looks like a homegrown Low that forms in the gulf right off the Florida coast..

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.[/b]

[jonj2040]

I was just curiouse what is causing the flattening out of the convection on the west side of the storm? Is it just shear the ull or something else?
I remeber this sort of characteristic being expressed in Ike when he wad pushef south by the high but im assuming this is for a different reason.
Im trying to lean as much as I can because I will be starting Met classes at FIT in the fall! So out of curiosity has anyone here graduated from FIT for meteorology. Just pm me if so to not clog the forum.

Thankyou!

[ROCK]

always been my understanding were the ULL goes the LLC will follow....but this doesnt have a LLC so disregard my thought process....

[ROCK]

0Z NAVGEM----comes in line with the big boys finally...

whats left of Chantal

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

[Evil Jeremy]

I spy mid level rotation over Haiti. Anyone else see it?

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... height=480

[AdamFirst]

I spy mid level rotation over Haiti. Anyone else see it?

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... height=480

Looks like a general NW motion of the energy now.

[northjaxpro]

I spy mid level rotation over Haiti. Anyone else see it?

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... height=480

Yes, I think the MLC is directly over Haiti now.

[northjaxpro]

I will say that the convective complex firing over near the Turks in the extreme SE Bahamas is beginning to get my attention. That has really flared up nicely the past few hours and is actually expanding. It makes me wonder if this trend persists if a new LLC may try to form in that vicinity. Also, if you observe on satellite imagery, you can clearly see that the shear is relaxing in the area in the vicinity near and east of the Bahamas. You can see the beginning of a cirrus cloud outflow taking shape. This system imo is making an attempt to regenerate slowly.

[Stormlover2012]

This thing is toast!!

[boca]

Its not heading to Florida anymore if you look at the satelite is moving NNW now.

[Evil Jeremy]

Its not heading to Florida anymore if you look at the satelite is moving NNW now.

Once the weakness created by the ULL fills up the restrengthening northern ridge should slam it west. Still a few days for this to get to FL. Also, perceived motion on satellite could be misleading given Chantel's disorganization and the shear in the area.

[Stormlover2012]

Will just be a rain maker.

[pavelbure224]

Hey Jeremy what are you thinking? It has expanding big time

[Evil Jeremy]

Hey Jeremy what are you thinking? It has expanding big time

My thoughts right now are that if Chantal want's to reform, it needs to consolidate. Right now there are two areas feuding for control. The dying MLC is still spinning over Haiti, and if it can survive until it reaches warm waters without much shear, it could try to respin on the surface. I expect the MLC to die out though. I think the more likely scenario is that the blob in the SE Bahamas spins up a new LLC. Not that I think either solution is likely, they are just possible. I give Chantel 30% at reforming.


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[boca]

I think if this system does regenerate it might head west once it's north of south florida clearly it's a north motion now

[Evil Jeremy]

I think if this system does regenerate it might head west once it's north of south florida clearly it's a north motion now

The path to the north is closing quicker than you might think. Check out the steering currents:
6 hours ago: http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/d ... m=&time=-2
3 hours ago: http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/d ... m=&time=-1
Now: http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/d ... &prod=dlm1

The weakness will be filled in quickly.

As for the northern movement today, that's more of convection refiring. The MLC is still over Hispaniola, hasn't moved much all day.
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... height=480

[bahamaswx]

I think if this system does regenerate it might head west once it's north of south florida clearly it's a north motion now

Be careful not to confuse expanding convection with a true movement.

[boca]

I think if this system does regenerate it might head west once it's north of south florida clearly it's a north motion now

The path to the north is closing quicker than you might think. Check out the steering currents:
6 hours ago: http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/d ... m=&time=-2
3 hours ago: http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/d ... m=&time=-1
Now: http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/d ... &prod=dlm1

The weakness will be filled in quickly.

As for the northern movement today, that's more of convection refiring. The MLC is still over Hispaniola, hasn't moved much all day.
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... height=480

I see your point I read the tropical update at 2am and they said a NW motion so lets see if it heads to Florida or just missed to the east