ATL: CHANTAL - Post-Tropical

['CaneFreak]

You heard correct. "It's dead Jim."

Naked swirl SW of Jamaica and a burst between Jamaica and southern coast of Cuba. Bones are you sure she's dead?

[AdamFirst]

NWS Melbourne double taked on their Facebook page

Yesterday when it was declassified they said to prepare for 1-3 inches widespread over the weekend with up to 6 inches in areas...but now with the remnants moving off the coast instead of over it, they're talking about 1-3 inches localized...also known as standard afternoon thunderstorms.

In all likelihood the weekend will be sunny after all of this forecast busting

[SouthDadeFish]

This may just be me, but I wouldn't call something dead that has strong vorticity, although tilted, at 850, 700, and 500mb in an area of wind shear that is moderate 10-20 knots, with high SSTs. The feature between Cuba and Jamaica is definitely interesting, but I think that it running into land and being displaced from the main mid-level energy will probably hurt it. The last frames show popcorn convection developing over the central Bahamas. You guys and gals can call it dead if you want to, but conditions now are probably just as favorable for this thing as they ever have been due to the reduced forward speed. I don't think it would be wise to totally give up on it if you live anywhere from the Carolinas to Florida/Bahamas.

[tailgater]

Okay I guess we can close this thread. Bones has made his annoucement. Or maybe we should wait until the NHC stops highlighting this area.
We can start another then.

I know the mods don't don't kill a thread. just trying to make a point.

[chaser1]

This may just be me, but I wouldn't call something dead that has strong vorticity, although tilted, at 850, 700, and 500mb in an area of wind shear that is moderate 10-20 knots, with high SSTs. The feature between Cuba and Jamaica is definitely interesting, but I think that it running into land and being displaced from the main mid-level energy will probably hurt it. The last frames show popcorn convection developing over the central Bahamas. You guys and gals can call it dead if you want to, but conditions now are probably just as favorable for this thing as they ever have been due to the reduced forward speed. I don't think it would be wise to totally give up on it if you live anywhere from the Carolinas to Florida/Bahamas.

Yep, I'd agree. Though I would'nt be "betting the farm" on it..., I do beleive that enough 500mb-850mb vorticity remains where given time and improved upper level conditions, I would even anticipate potential redevelopment. I am assuming that the remaining overall remnant of Chantal will be moving slowly NNW, but depending on timing and convective bursting, wouldn't be a shock to see some redevelopment and then later mid level ridging causing the system to bend back towards N. Florida or Georgia perhaps?

Could Kirk be possibly speaking to a Klingon disguised as McCoy? LOL

[Caribwxgirl]

You heard correct. "It's dead Jim."

Naked swirl SW of Jamaica and a burst between Jamaica and southern coast of Cuba. Bones are you sure she's dead?

Well dead or alive we are getting a good bit of rain from it here. Had heavy rains and thunderstorms in the 4am but died down and had started up again. The heaviest rains are to the eastern end of the island though.

[Riptide]

850mb Vorticity maxima over Central Bahamas.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/a ... wg8vor.GIF

[wxman57]

Vorticity is diminishing, as are the squalls. While I agree you can never 100% write off any thunderstorm in the tropics, I think the chances of Chantal redeveloping are well below 5%, possibly 1-2%.

[AJC3]

NWS Melbourne double taked on their Facebook page

Yesterday when it was declassified they said to prepare for 1-3 inches widespread over the weekend with up to 6 inches in areas...but now with the remnants moving off the coast instead of over it, they're talking about 1-3 inches localized...also known as standard afternoon thunderstorms.

In all likelihood the weekend will be sunny after all of this forecast busting

I don't know about calling this a double-take (?), however the Thursday-Friday rainfall forecast needed to be adjusted downward, given what's taken place with Chantal over the last 24 hours.

[tolakram]

Let's cool off the anger over dead or not dead please. State your opinion in a respectful manner and move along.

MIMIC-TPW

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... /main.html

The only remaining spin I see is below Jamaica, and it's not much. Looks to be spreading out and losing all spin. In my opinion.

[Siker]

The 12z GFS Actually tries to redevelop Chantal, looks like a closed low with TS force winds in 33 hours:

[SouthDadeFish]

Vorticity is diminishing, as are the squalls. While I agree you can never 100% write off any thunderstorm in the tropics, I think the chances of Chantal redeveloping are well below 5%, possibly 1-2%.

I respectfully disagree with you then. I still see a strong area of vorticity and convection is continuing to fire. Not to say that I think it will redevelop, but I would put the odds much higher, like 20-30%. Btw, the 12Z GFS increases the vorticity at the 850mb level over the next couple of days and appears to develop a weak low as it passes over Andros Island and Grand Bahama.

However, I do highly value your insight on the tropics and you may very well be correct.

[wxman57]

It does appear that Chantal's energy has split. Weak area of squalls moved north into Bahamas but that's some significant convection firing NW of Jamaica. That would be the area to watch, not the Bahamas.

[northjaxpro]

Yes, I am impressed by the convective burst in between Jamaica and the Cuba coast. It will be interesting to see if this convection can sustain itself. We will see. Hey, there may be a faint pulse left of Chantel's remnants. Well, has Bones slipped out on us working secretly down in sickbay? LOL..

[Stormlover2012]

Convection usually blows up during the day and diminishes at night!!

[wxman57]

Convection usually blows up during the day and diminishes at night!!

Over land, not over water. Convection over water increases at night.

[jhpigott]

The 12z GFS Actually tries to redevelop Chantal, looks like a closed low with TS force winds in 33 hours:

Did this originate from the voricity currently south of east Cuba or what's left of the voricity currently in the southern Bahamas?

[stormreader]

I'm not gonna write off Chantal just yet, and feel strong enough about it to post for the first time this season. Convection is in a very favored area just south of Cuba, likely I would say to move more WNW with the lower level flow now and on into the Gulf of Mexico. Its been a difficult system for any models to really get a handle on, but some of the earlier ones had hinted at a track into the NW GOM. If redevelopment occurs, I think that would be the most likely scenario.


Check NHC for official info.

[Blown Away]

12z GFS... Intital


12z GFS... 27 hours

After 27 hours the low hugs the FL coast and goes inland near SC.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

It does appear that Chantal's energy has split. Weak area of squalls moved north into Bahamas but that's some significant convection firing NW of Jamaica. That would be the area to watch, not the Bahamas.

The significant blow-up of convection northwest of Jamaica is just a result of maximized upper-air divergence from the upper-level low to its northwest and a result of marginal convergence from where the air is slowing down and piling up on the southwest periphery of the high over the western Atlantic. It might have to be watched as it tracks westward, but it's not an immediate threat.

The area over the Bahamas is a surface trough in relation to the remnants of Chantal. A mid-level area of low pressure is forming just northeast of the central Bahamas, and conditions are actually pretty favorable for continued organization. Should become vertically stacked with the balm of low-level vorticity farther southwest as time progresses. The NHC mentions "hostile" conditions, but wind shear is less than 20 knots per UW-CIMSS maps. Both the 12z GFS and CMC show redevelopment of this feature into a tropical storm as it heads for North Carolina and South Carolina. This is the feature that should be watched in my opinion.

The NHC will investigate this area tomorrow afternoon.