ATL: CHANTAL - Post-Tropical

[jhpigott]

It does appear that Chantal's energy has split. Weak area of squalls moved north into Bahamas but that's some significant convection firing NW of Jamaica. That would be the area to watch, not the Bahamas.

The significant blow-up of convection northwest of Jamaica is just a result of maximized upper-air divergence from the upper-level low to its northwest and a result of marginal convergence from where the air is slowing down and piling up on the southwest periphery of the high over the western Atlantic. It might have to be watched as it tracks westward, but it's not an immediate threat.

The area over the Bahamas is a surface trough in relation to the remnants of Chantal. It appears an area of low pressure is trying to form in the central Bahamas, and conditions are actually pretty favorable for such. The NHC mentions "hostile" conditions, but wind shear is less than 20 knots per UW-CIMSS maps. Both the 12z GFS and CMC show redevelopment of this feature into a tropical storm as it heads for North Carolina and South Carolina. This is the feature that should be watched.

The NHC will investigate this area tomorrow afternoon.

The 12z GFS shows at +27 hours a redeveloped Chantal as what looks to be a weak TS passing somewhere between West Palm Beach and Freeport, Bahamas

[AtlanticWind]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

The most surface circulation I see at the moment is over cuba about 22 n and 79 w .

[cycloneye]

Up to 30%

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT THU JUL 11 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF CHANTAL
EXTENDS NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ACROSS CENTRAL
CUBA AND INTO THE BAHAMAS. THIS SYSTEM IS ACCOMPANIED BY A LARGE
BUT DISORGANIZED AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...WHEN THE DISTURBANCE MOVES
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS AND THE ADJACENT
ATLANTIC. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE MISSION IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE DISTURBANCE
ON FRIDAY...IF NECESSARY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[northjaxpro]

Yes, the shear is lessening in the area off the Florida East Coast and north of the Bahamas, which I was noticing last night. You can clearly see the MLC spinning just east of the Central Bahamas on the visible satellite imagery.

As some of you have pointed out, Chantal's remnants broke off into two parts as she interacted with Hispaniola.

Now, the other part is flaring up south of the Cuba coast. Is it possible we may see the development of two entities out of this?

[hurricanekid416]

Yes, the shear is lessening in the area off the Florida East Coast and north of the Bahamas, which I was noticing last night. You can clearly see the MLC spinning just east of the Central Bahamas on the visible satellite imagery.

As some of you have pointed out, Chantal's remnants broke off into two parts as she interacted with Hispaniola.

Now, the other part is flaring up south of the Cuba coast. Is it possible we may see the development of two entities out of this?

That's would be crazy but wouldn't they shear each other then

[Dave]

Recon mission retasked...see REMARKS B below

Code: Select all

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1145 AM EDT THU 11 JULY 2013
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
         VALID 12/1100Z TO 13/1100Z JULY 2013
         TCPOD NUMBER.....13-041

I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL
       FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 71
       A. 12/1800Z               
       B. AFXXX 0603A CHANTAL     
       C. 12/1530Z               
       D. 28.5N 77.5W             
       E. 12/1700Z TO 12/2100Z   
       F. SFC TO 10,000 FT 

       FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 72
       A. 13/1200Z,1800Z
       B. AFXXX 0703A CHANTAL
       C. 13/0900Z               
       D. 33.5N 76.5W             
       E. 13/1130Z TO 13/1800Z   
       F. SFC TO 10,000 FT         

    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
    3. REMARKS:
       A. LOW-LEVEL INVEST MISSION FOR 11/1800Z AND FIX
          REQUIREMENT FOR 12/1200Z CANCELED BY NHC AT 11/1120Z.
       B. 12/1800Z FIX REQUIREMENT NOW RETASKED AS AN INVEST
          MISSION OUTLINED ABOVE.

[Blown Away]

Focusing in over eastern Cuba, circle moved from 8am...

[jhpigott]

This will be a good radar to track if things get going with Chantal's remnants in the Bahamas/off FL coast

http://www.sfwmd.gov/portal/page/portal ... s%20(radar)

[Dave]

12/1800Z FIX REQUIREMENT NOW RETASKED AS AN INVEST MISSION...See REMARKS

Posted in... http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=59&t=115204&start=140

['CaneFreak]

Nah...they would be plenty far apart

Yes, the shear is lessening in the area off the Florida East Coast and north of the Bahamas, which I was noticing last night. You can clearly see the MLC spinning just east of the Central Bahamas on the visible satellite imagery.

As some of you have pointed out, Chantal's remnants broke off into two parts as she interacted with Hispaniola.

Now, the other part is flaring up south of the Cuba coast. Is it possible we may see the development of two entities out of this?

That's would be crazy but wouldn't they shear each other then

[Weatherboy1]

I think the old low level center/area south of Cuba is probably what we need to monitor the closest. It also looks like some of that energy up towards Andros in the SW Bahamas may be getting drawn toward the old low level center, at least to my eyes.

[sweetpea]

What does that mean? It was rescheduled?

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track.

AL, 03, 2013071118, , BEST, 0, 224N, 780W, 25, 1013, WV

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inves ... 013.invest

[CrazyC83]

I think tonight will be the key. If she can sustain herself in D.Min, maybe a D.Max. blow up would work towards rebuilding the LLC.

[SouthFloridawx]

I had a feeling about this last night.

http://img839.imageshack.us/img839/1994/o88n.jpg

Focusing in over eastern Cuba, circle moved from 8am...

Sent from my SPH-D710 using Tapatalk 2

[jaguarjace]

Here's a loop of the current situation:

[tropicwatch]

Well the satellite storm floater is still active on the remnants of Chantal and under the name Chantal. Guess this means there will be no new invest number or name if redevelopment occurs.

[northjaxpro]

Great satellite loop! Convection also beginning to flare a bit now in the vicinity of the Central Bahamian Islands. It is very interesting following Chantal's remnants in two different areas currently. The system still has a some kind of a pulse folks.

[galaxy401]

Once again we all thought this storm was dead this morning. Ain't over till it's over.

[Dave]

What does that mean? It was rescheduled?

All missions up to tomorrow had been cancelled last night due to the fact that only an open wave could be found which was once Chantal but today the NHC has decided to use the missions previously scheduled for Friday to 'investigate' the area of interest to see what's out there..if anything.