ATL: CHANTAL - Post-Tropical

[AtlanticWind]

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... 1&loop=yes


Long Range Miami Radar

[lilybeth]

Which direction should the remnants of Chantal move?

I was wondering the same thing myself. If she did manage to get herself together, would she be likely to be forecasted to follow the last track she had before downgrading?

[SouthFloridawx]

That's an Upper Level Low

[AtlanticWind]

That's an Upper Level Low

The Low level turning is east of that upper level low, South of Andros is.

[jlauderdal]

That's an Upper Level Low

how can you tell that's an upper low from that image?

thx

[StormTracker]

So the CMC figures that Chantal gave up her life to birth the twins she was carrying! One goes to NC and the other to Texas! No wonder the models were so confused! That would be something!

[jlauderdal]

I see the circulation closer to where best track had it. About 22.5 and 78 w

They will need recon if this continues the rest of today

yeah, Dave posted they are scheduled for this 'invest' if needed for tomorrow now, after having cancelled all recon yesterday.

some active weather in PBC today, stay safe


is this chantal remnants raking the area?

[Hurricaneman]

With where the ULL is I would actually look near Jamaica for redevelopment due to there being less shear down there and that area seems to be turning too

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[blp]

All signs point toward the north coast of Cuba's Camaguey province. Look at this, we now have vorticity up till the 500mb level and convergence.

850mb


700mb


500mb


Convergence

[Hurricaneman]

:uarrow: So the CMC figures that Chantal gave up her life to birth the twins she was carrying! One goes to NC and the other to Texas! No wonder the models were so confused! That would be something!

The 12zGFS somewhat shows something similar except that the southern vortmax develops a weak low and goes into the Yucatan and the vortmax near Cuba also develops a weak low and goes into north carolina

[StormTracker]

And it looks to be stealing(consolidating)from the moisture south of it as I eluded to earlier...

[CourierPR]

Go to this site:

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html

Then create a 25 image loop on the suspected center and speed it up really quickly.

There is a good mid level circ that has developed. cant see anything at the surface yet but with the convection building it may be trying to work to the surface.

Defiantly rotation there. If that center can stabilize over the next couple hours, I expect a decent increase at the 8pm TWO. Chantal is nothing if not resilient.

Did you mean DEFIANTLY or DEFINITELY?

[blp]

Starting to see a bit of a twist going on with the storms over Andros and storms over Cuba.

http://radblast-aws.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/radar/WUNIDS_map?station=BYX&brand=wui&num=40&delay=5&type=N0Z&frame=0&scale=1.000&noclutter=0&t=1373574036&lat=0&lon=0&label=you&showstorms=None&map.x=400&map.y=240&centerx=400&centery=240&transx=0&transy=0&showlabels=1&severe=0&rainsnow=Show&lightning=1&smooth=1

[StormTracker]

:uarrow: So the CMC figures that Chantal gave up her life to birth the twins she was carrying! One goes to NC and the other to Texas! No wonder the models were so confused! That would be something!

The 12zGFS somewhat shows something similar except that the southern vortmax develops a weak low and goes into the Yucatan and the vortmax near Cuba also develops a weak low and goes into north carolina

Yeah, saw that too! This could get very interesting! Bones was kinda right about Chantal, but he didn't know she was pregnant!

[SouthFloridawx]

I can tell because when I look at the WV loop it is much more prevalent.

Then I check the Upper Level Winds on CIMSS. Plus we've been talking about it for a while... it is basically stationary for now.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=wvir&zoom=&time

That's an Upper Level Low
http://img33.imageshack.us/img33/6020/gbxn.jpg

how can you tell that's an upper low from that image?
thx

[blp]

If it does start to spin up in this area then the GFS 12z nailed it.

[northjaxpro]

:uarrow: So the CMC figures that Chantal gave up her life to birth the twins she was carrying! One goes to NC and the other to Texas! No wonder the models were so confused! That would be something!

The 12zGFS somewhat shows something similar except that the southern vortmax develops a weak low and goes into the Yucatan and the vortmax near Cuba also develops a weak low and goes into north carolina

Yeah, saw that too! This could get very interesting! Bones was kinda right about Chantal, but he didn't know she was pregnant!

LOL... That is a good way of assessing the matter.

[BUCMAN48]

If it were to develope what are the synoptics presently and where might it go.
I know afew days ago we were talikng about the ridge building back in forcing
everything across florida and possibly into the gulf-is that still the case?

[blp]

If it were to develope what are the synoptics presently and where might it go.
I know afew days ago we were talikng about the ridge building back in forcing
everything across florida and possibly into the gulf-is that still the case?

Depends on where it consolidates but most of the models point toward due North motion close with eventual landfall in the Carolinas.

[BUCMAN48]

is there any inhibiting factors that could change that course?