Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
132 PM AST THU JUL 11 2013

.SYNOPSIS...MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL HOLD THRU FRI. TUTT ACROSS
THE CNTRL ATLC WILL RETROGRESS TO THE NORTH OF HISPANIOLA BY SUN.
STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD TUE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MODIS TERRA AOD PRODUCT FROM THE NEXTSAT WEBSITE
SHOWS SAHARAN DUST AT ITS PEAK OVR THE AREA TODAY WITH CLEARER
SKIES TO THE EAST OF THE ISLAND CHAIN. SO EXPECT VISIBILITIES TO
IMPROVE OVER 10SM FRI. OVERALL...DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH FRI WITH VERY LITTLE IF ANY AFTERNOON CONVECTION.
ON SAT...THINGS BECOME A BIT MORE UNSTABLE AS AREA BECOMES UNDER
INFLUENCE OF TUTT SO I EXPECT SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION TO POP UP.
MORE NUMEROUS AND DEEPER CONVECTION IS LIKELY SUN AS MID LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASES AND AREA BECOMES UNDER FVRBL EAST SIDE OF TUTT.
TUTT BEGINS TO FILL MON AND MOVE FARTHER WEST TOWARD THE BAHAMAS
SO EXPECT A GRADUAL DOWNWARD TREND IN CONVECTION MON. ON TUE AND
FOR THE REST OF NEXT WEEK...VERY STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
BUILD OVER THE AREA LIKELY SUPPRESSING CONVECTION. A TROPICAL WAVE
WILL APPROACH THE AREA THU NIGHT BUT RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
MODEL TRENDS ARE SHOWING LESS CURVATURE WITH THIS WAVE THAN PAST
FEW DAYS. IT DOES APPEAR WILL SEE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH A TRADE WIND SURGE.

&&

.AVIATION...ALL LOCAL FLYING AREA WILL REMAIN VFR FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS UNDER A DRIER AIR MASS. HOWEVER A DENSE SAHARAN DUST LAYER
WILL LIKELY REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO AS LOW AS 7 TO 10 MILES AT THE
SFC FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS GENERALLY 3-5 FT THROUGH THE 5-DAY FCST PERIOD.
SCT-NMRS SAT AND SUN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 87 79 87 / 10 0 30 20
STT 79 88 79 86 / 10 0 30 10

[Macrocane]

I'm glad to hear that everything's OK in the islands

The southern branch of the wave that originated Chantal is approaching Central America and will produce rainy weather in the next couple of days:

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
303 PM EDT THU JUL 11 2013

DISCUSSION FROM JULY 11/00UTC: CONVECTION IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
MEXICO IS ACTIVATING WHILE WANING OVER THE SIERRA MADRE
OCCIDENTAL. DEEP MOISTURE POOL OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL
CONTINUE SUSTAINING SEASONALLY ACTIVE CONVECTION OVER THE REGION.
FURTHERMORE...WAVES ARRIVING FROM THE EAST AND ACTIVE CONVECTION
OFF THE PACIFIC BASIN OF NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA WILL ENHANCE
FORCING TO SUSTAIN WET PATTERN. ON DAY 01 EXPECTING AMOUNTS OF
10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-40MM IN DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS.
AMOUNTS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM ALONG
SOUTHERN MEXICO. ON DAY 03...TROPICAL WAVE ARRIVES. THIS SHOULD
LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN ACCUMULATIONS TO 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
35-70MM.

OVER SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO/NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA VERY ACTIVE
PATTERN IS ESTABLISHING. DEEP MOISTURE POOL...TROPICAL WAVES AND
VENTILATION ALOFT WILL FAVOR MODERATE AND HEAVY AMOUNTS. ON DAY
01...EXPECTING ACTIVE DIURNAL CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL/WESTERN
NICARAGUA-HONDURAS-ALL OF EL SALVADOR-GUATEMALA-CHIAPAS TO PRODUCE
ACCUMULATIONS OF 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM. ACTIVE
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED IN YUCATAN/BELIZE/NORTHERN GUATEMALA WITH
SIMILAR AMOUNTS IN AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. ON DAY
02...EXPECTING HEAVIEST OVER GUATEMALA/CHIAPAS WITH AMOUNTS OF
15-25MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 30-60MM. OVER YUCATAN EXPECTING
10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-40MM. AMOUNTS ARE TO INCREASE ON DAY
03 AS WAVE THAT GENERATED CHANTAL ARRIVES IN FROM THE EAST. THIS
WILL LEAD TO HEAVIEST STORMS OVER HONDURAS INTO GUATEMALA/EL
SALVADOR LEADING TO AMOUNTS OF 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 35-70MM.

ACROSS COSTA RICA AND PANAMA ACTIVE CONVECTION WILL DOMINATE
THROUGH MID CYCLE. EXPECTING A DECREASE IN PANAMA DURING DAY 03 AS
WAVES MOVE AWAY AND A DRIER AIR MASS ARRIVES IN FROM THE EAST.
EXPECTING HEAVIEST THROUGH 60 HRS TO PRODUCE AMOUNTS OF
15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 30-60MM.

TO THE EAST ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN BASIN...WETTEST WILL REMAIN IN
THE WESTERN HALF ASSOCIATED WITH REMNANTS OF CHANTAL AND
INTERACTION WITH TUTT OVER NORTHERN CUBA. AREAS TO THE EAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC/ABC WILL REMAIN UNDER A WELL ESTABLISHED
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WHERE SHALLOW CONVECTION WILL BE THE RULE.
EXPECTING HEAVIEST OVER CENTRAL-SOUTHEASTERN CUBA TODAY WITH
AMOUNTS OF 25-50MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 75-125MM. OVER JAMAICA
EXPECTING 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM. OVER THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN BAHAMAS EXPECTING SIMILAR AMOUNTS WITH MAXIMA OF
30-60MM...AS REMNANTS OF CHANTAL INTERACT WITH TUTT TO THE WEST.
ON DAY 02 EXPECTING HEAVIEST OVER CUBA WITH AMOUNTS OF 15-20MM/DAY
AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS EXPECTING 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-40MM. EXPECTING
AMOUNTS TO DECREASE TOWARDS DAY 03.

ACROSS NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA...DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED OVER
VENEZUELA AND THEN COLOMBIA...WHILE AMOUNTS WILL INCREASE IN THE
GUIANAS ON DAY 02-03 AS A WAVE ARRIVES. OVER COLOMBIA MOST ACTIVE
WILL REMAIN OVER NORTHWESTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY ON DAY 01 WITH
ISOLATED ACCUMULATIONS OF 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 30-60MM IN
STRONGEST CONVECTION. AREA WILL REMAIN ACTIVE ON DAY 02 WITH A
DECREASING TREND. SOME ACTIVE CONVECTION WILL PERSIST ACROSS
EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN COLOMBIA AS WELL. ACROSS THE
GUIANAS...ARRIVING WAVE WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN ACCUMULATIONS
TO 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 30-60MM.

TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12UTC

INITIAL 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 TYPE
44W 50W 53W 56W 58W 60W 62W 64W TW
77W 79W 82W 84W 86W 88W 91W 94W TW
83W 87W 90W 92W 94W DISS TW
89W 93W 95W 97W DISS TW

TROPICAL WAVE AT 44W IS TILTED AND SOUTHERN TIER WILL START
AFFECTING FRENCH GUIANA LATER TODAY. WAVE WILL ENHANCE
ACCUMULATIONS ESPECIALLY ON DAYS 02 AND 03 AS IT MOVES INTO
NORTHERN GUIANA/SOUTHEASTERN VENEZUELA.

TROPICAL WAVE THAT ORIGINATED CHANTAL IS NOW LOCATED AT 77W AND TO
THE SOUTH OF 20-21N...ALTHOUGH NORTHERN END OF WAVE IS PROPAGATING
NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE BAHAMAS WHILE INTERACTING WITH TUTT TO
THE WEST. THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENHANCE ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS
JAMAICA/CUBA/BAHAMAS ON DAY 01...ACROSS WESTERN CUBA/CAYMAN
ISLANDS ON DAY 02...AND ACROSS HONDURAS/EL SALVADOR/GUATEMALA INTO
THE GULF OF HONDURAS ON DAY 03.

WEAK TROPICAL WAVE AT 83W WILL ENHANCE ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS
CENTRAL AMERICA TODAY AND DURING DAY 02...WANING LATER AS IT MOVES
ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC.

TROPICAL WAVE AT 89W IS LOSING DEFINITION WHILE BECOMING EMBEDDED
IN BROAD TROUGHS ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC.

MCKENZIE...BDM (BAHAMAS)
ROBINSON...MSJ (JAMAICA)
GALVEZ...WPC (USA)

[cycloneye]

Good morning. A fairly good weekend weatherwise is expected in PR except for a few showers that a weak trough will bring on Saturday. Another Tropical Wave will arrive by next Wednesday increasing the showers.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
506 AM AST FRI JUL 12 2013

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...LOW PRESSURE ABOUT 800 MILES NORTH
NORTHEAST OF SAN JUAN WILL MOVE ABOUT 150 MILES SOUTH AND BEGIN
WEAKENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVER THE CARIBBEAN EARLY
NEXT WEEK AND REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURE.

AT MID LEVELS...A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA ON SATURDAY FROM THE EAST AS A REFLECTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SPREAD WEST ACROSS THE ATLANTIC BETWEEN 20
AND 30 NORTH LATITUDE DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK.

AT LOWER LEVELS...A WEAK TROUGH WITH A BASE NEAR 19 NORTH WILL
MOVE WEST ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS...TO ARRIVE IN THE BAHAMA
ISLANDS BY MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE WESTERN
AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC WATERS DURING THE WEEK DRIVING INCREASED
TRADE WINDS. A TROPICAL WAVE FOLLOWED BY A WIND SURGE WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW HAS GENERATED A TROUGH AT MID AND
LOWER LEVELS THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA TOMORROW. WINDS
HAVE ALREADY SHIFTED TO THE NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AND A
FEW TENUOUS SHOWERS WERE SEEN MOVING TOWARD THE AREA ON THIS FLOW.
PRECIPITABLE WATER OVER THE AREA...HOWEVER...HAS FALLEN TO 1.5
INCHES AND MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE WANING THROUGH THIS
EVENING. MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE AREA WHEN LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES
SOUTHEASTERLY BEHIND THE TROUGH BUT FALLS AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF A TROPICAL WAVE THAT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
CURRENT MODELS SHOW A WIND SURGE WITH THE WAVE AND THE BEST
MOISTURE OF THE WEEK ON THURSDAY BEHIND THE WAVE. MUCH DRIER AIR
FOLLOWS ON FRIDAY ACCORDING TO BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF. IN
GENERAL HOWEVER MOISTURE FROM ABOUT 800 MB TO 300 MB IS WEAK
THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 7 DAYS AND GENERALLY UNDER 50 PERCENT EVEN 40
PERCENT FOR THE MOST PART. THIS WILL KEEP CONVECTION LIMITED AS A
RULE...PUNCTUATED BY SOMEWHAT BETTER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD EXCEPT ACROSS TJPS WHERE AFTERNOON CONVECTION COULD
PRODUCE MVFR OR BRIEF IFR CONDS IN SHRA/TSRA. SAHARAN DUST IS STILL
PRESENT ACROSS THE FLYING AREA...RESULTING IN SOME AREAS OF REDUCED
VISIBILITIES. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ACROSS THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND
CENTRAL INTERIOR ARE POSSIBLE BTWN 17-22Z.

&&

.MARINE...LIGHTER WINDS AND SEAS IN THE AREA UNTIL LATER NEXT
WEEK. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY...BUT MAY HAVE TO BE RAISED THURSDAY OR FRIDAY IN THE
CARIBBEAN FOR 7 FOOT SEAS GENERATED BY A WIND SURGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 77 86 78 / 0 30 10 10
STT 88 77 88 78 / 10 30 10 30

[cycloneye]

Forecasts from different islands

http://www.antiguamet.com/

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
231 PM AST FRI JUL 12 2013

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT NE OF THE REGION WILL RETROGRESS TO THE NORTH OF
HISPANIOLA SUN NIGHT. STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVR
THE AREA TUE. TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WED NIGHT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DRY AND STABLE WX PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE BUT
RETROGRESSING TUTT WILL BRING MORE UNSTABLE AIR SAT TO YIELD SCT-
NMRS TSTMS TOMORROW ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. DEEPER CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED SUN BUT OVER NW PR AS STEERING WINDS BECOME FROM THE
SOUTHEAST. GRADUAL DRYING TREND EXPECTED MON AS TUTT FILLS AND
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ERODES. VERY DRY TUE-WED UNDER STROND RIDGING. A
TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WED NIGHT BRINGING A SHARP
INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WED NIGHT AND THU. VERY DRY
AGAIN FOR NEXT WEEKEND UNDER STRONG MID LEVEL RIDGE/HEIGHTS TWO STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL
FLYING AREA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS 2-4 FT INCREASING TO 3-5 FT EARLY NEXT WEEK. SCT
TSTMS SUN-MON THE MAIN HAZARD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 86 79 88 / 0 10 10 20
STT 79 88 79 88 / 20 10 30 30

[Macrocane]

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
138 PM EDT FRI JUL 12 2013

DISCUSSION FROM JULY 12/00UTC: BROAD SURFACE LOWS ARE FORMING IN
THE EASTERN PACIFIC...AIDING TRANSPORT OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE
INTO WESTERN CENTRAL AMERICA AND INTO SOUTHERN/CENTRAL MEXICO.
THIS WILL SUSTAIN ACTIVE SEASONAL CONVECTION IN THE REGION THROUGH
THE CYCLE...AIDED BY ARRIVING TROPICAL WAVES. OVER CENTRAL
MEXICO...A WEAK TUTT WILL MEANDER TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS. THIS SYSTEM WILL AID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
FURTHERMORE. OVER CENTRAL MEXICO...EXPECTING GENERAL AMOUNTS OF
15-20MM/DAY WITH ISOLATED MAXIMA OF 25-50MM THROUGH THE CYCLE.
HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED ALONG SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS/COAST.

TROPICAL WAVE THAT LEAD TO TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL DURING PREVIOUS
DAYS IS MAKING ITS WAY WEST INTO WESTERN CUBA/CAYMAN ISLANDS AND
CENTRAL AMERICA. THIS WAVE HAS A WELL DEFINED SIGNATURE IN WINDS
AND CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY...AND WILL MODULATE PRECIPITATION AS IT
CROSSES CENTRAL AMERICA/SOUTHERN MEXICO INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC
AND GULF OF MEXICO. ON DAY 01 EXPECTING 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
30-60MM FROM EXTREME NORTHWESTERN COSTA RICA INTO EL
SALVADOR/MOUNTAINS OF HONDURAS/WESTERN NICARAGUA. ACROSS
GUATEMALA/BELIZE/CHIAPAS EXPECTING 20-40MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
50-100MM. OVER YUCATAN/CAYMAN ISLANDS EXPECTING 10-15MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 20-40MM SLIGHTLY DECREASING IN DAY 02. OVER CUBA
EXPECTING 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM. ON DAY 02...EXPECTING
HEAVIEST FROM WESTERN NICARAGUA THROUGH OAXACA IN MEXICO WITH
AMOUNTS OF 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 35-70MM. OVER WESTERN CUBA
AND YUCATAN EXPECTING 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-30MM. ON DAY
03...EXPECTING HEAVIEST FROM GULF OF FONSECA/HONDURAS THROUGH
BELIZE/GUATEMALA INTO CHIAPAS IN MEXICO WITH AMOUNTS OF
15-30MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 40-80MM. ACROSS YUCATAN AND WESTERN CUBA
EXPECTING 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM.

NORTHERN TIER OF AFOREMENTIONED TROPICAL WAVE HAS DETACHED AND IS
INTERACTING WITH TUTT OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA/NORTHERN CUBA. THIS IS
LEADING TO A VERY ACTIVE PATTERN OF CONVECTION OVER THE BAHAMAS
THAT IS TO PEAK TODAY TO WANE GRADUALLY AFTERWARDS. EXPECTING
ACCUMULATIONS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-40MM THROUGH 36 HRS.
A NEW WAVE OF ACCUMULATIONS IS EXPECTED ON DAYS 03-04 AS TUTT
RETROGRESSES FROM THE ATLANTIC INTO THE REGION.

SEASONALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE WELL ESTABLISHED OVER CARIBBEAN TO
THE EAST OF CENTRAL CUBA/JAMAICA/PANAMA/NORTHERN COLOMBIA INTO THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC. THIS IS A RESPONSE TO A MID-LEVEL HIGH AND
POWERFUL TRADE WIND INVERSION...WHICH IS LIMITING DEVELOPMENT TO
SHALLOW CONVECTION. TO THE NORTHEAST...A TUTT IS RETROGRESSING
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...WHICH WILL LEAD TO MARGINAL
ENHANCEMENT ON THE EXTREME NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH DAY
02...AND OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS/HISPANIOLA ON DAY 03.
STILL...EXPECTING LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS IN MOSTLY ENHANCED SHALLOW
CONVECTION AND VERY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

DRY PATTERN IS ESTABLISHED OVER PANAMA/NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
COLOMBIA AND NORTHERN VENEZUELA AS TRADE WIND INVERSION HAS
STRENGTHENED. TROPICAL WAVE IS HOWEVER TO GRADUALLY CHANGE THIS
FROM EAST TO WEST AS IT MOVES FROM THE GUIANAS INTO CENTRAL
VENEZUELA. EXPECTING HEAVIEST ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE GUIANAS ON
DAY 01-02 IN THE 15-25MM/DAY RANGE AND ISOLATED MAXIMA OF 30-60MM.
THE WAVE WILL ENHANCE ACCUMULATIONS OVER TRINIDAD/TOBAGO AND
NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA ON DAY 03 AND ESPECIALLY 04 LEADING TO
05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-20MM. OVER THE EASTERN ABC EXPECTING
ALSO AN INCREASE TOWARDS DAY 03-04.

TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12UTC

INITIAL 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 TYPE
34W 36W 39W 42W 45W 49W 53W 57W TW
54W 57W 60W 62W 64W 66W 69W 72W TW
82W 84W 87W 89W 92W 95W 97W DISS TW
90W DISS TW

TROPICAL WAVE AT 34W AND TO THE SOUTH OF 24N IS WELL ORGANIZED
WHILE TRAVERSING THE MID-ATLANTIC. THIS WAVE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN
SLIGHTLY...STILL REMAIN ORGANIZED AS IT MOVES INTO NORTHERN SOUTH
AMERICA/EASTERN CARIBBEAN. THE WAVE WILL ENHANCE ACCUMULATIONS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN COAST OF BRAZIL THROUGH MID CYCLE AND AFFECT
THE GUIANAS ON DAY 03.

TROPICAL WAVE AT 54W IS STARTING TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED WHILE
REMAINING TO THE SOUTH OF 10-12N. THIS WAVE WILL ENHANCE
ACCUMULATIONS AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE GUIANAS ON DAY 01...AND
ESPECIALLY OVER TRINIDAD AND CENTRAL/EASTERN VENEZUELA LATE ON DAY
02 AND INTO DAY 03.

TROPICAL WAVE THAT ORIGINATED CHANTAL IS NOW LOCATED AT 82W AND TO
THE SOUTH OF 20-21N. WAVE WILL PROPAGATE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO
AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC THROUGH THE CYCLE...STRONGLY MODULATING
DEEP CONVECTION ALONG ITS WAY. SOUTHERN TIER WILL ENHANCE BROAD
LOW-PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MEXICO AS THE CYCLE
PROGRESSES.

TROPICAL WAVE AT 90W HAS NOW EVOLVED INTO A BROAD WEAK LOW. THIS
LOW IS ENHANCING MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE PACIFIC COAST OF
CENTRAL AMERICA...LEADING TO ACTIVE CONVECTION.

[Gustywind]

VAUCLIN
Storm Chantal: the prefect found damage

http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.a ... 212813.php

Only two days after the passage of tropical storm Chantal, the prefect of the region, Laurent Prévost, came to see the extent of the damage on farms. A way of approaching the reality of the losses. On some farms they amount to one hundred percent of the production.

Accompanied by the heads of departments in charge of agriculture records, of the president of the Chamber of agriculture, Louis - Daniel Bergin, and Executive Director of Banamart, Pierre Montheux, the prefect of the region was able to perform an initial assessment as to the losses caused by the passage of the storm Chantal. In the area of le Vauclin, banana farms suffered particularly high winds that struck the southeast of Martinique, last Tuesday. That of Bruno Paviot is a fine example. Located at the exit of the town, at a place called Paquemard, the 12-hectare plantation has become a field of despair for this farmer. Losses are estimated at one hundred percent. A blow to this operator farm which has 12 employees in his company.


On the exploitation of Bruno Paviot, it is question of partial unemployment for part of twelve employees.


[b]TAKE THE MEASURE OF THE DISTRESS OF FARMERS

In the coming days, Bruno Paviot will be forced to implement a procedure of partial unemployment for some of its workers. For the moment, these last are involved in the maintenance of the operation. You must remove sheaths, the strings in order to restore the plantation. The operator thinks it can ensure a working month. This twist of fate comes at a time when the businessman thought keep its objectives of tonnage for the year, 900 tons. Everything seemed to be on track as to date, 500 tonnes have already been marketed. "Today everything seems damn," explains Bruno Paviot.

Services of the State have taken the measure of the distress of farmers. The visit of the prefect is reassuring. For now, the important thing is to carry out an initial assessment, to mount aid cases which will be rapidly transmitted to the Ministry of overseas. "We want to go more quickly to hear records in order to assist farmers in the relaunch of their production," said the prefect.


-For a quick census

Before stopping vauclin, Laurent Prévost has visited the operation of Jean-Yves Paviot in François, in the hamlet of daredevil. A visit with a certainty: the obligation for farmers to started a rapid and effective census.

"After the passage of Chantal, it was important for me to go on-site to quantify the damage caused by the storm. "Immediately, we will we gather around a table and take to tackle all the problems of the profession ', could tell the prefect.



Laurent Prévost (in the Center), the prefect, also visited to François on the exploitation of Jean-Yves Paviot (to his right).

-He said Jean-Yves Paviot, operator agricultural

"Had told us winds of 80 km/h. The damage is more important than what one could imagine. The phenomenon lasted just 2 hours, but you can see damage. In the plots, the observation is catastrophic. There are more than fifty per cent of loss after the passage of Chantal. For me the season is over. » [/b]

[cycloneye]

Good morning. A weak trough will move slowly west today thru tomorrow bringing scattered showers. Another Tropical Wave will arrive on Thursday bringing more shower activity.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
512 AM AST SAT JUL 13 2013

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A TUTT LOW 560 MILES NORTHEAST OF PUERTO
RICO WILL SLIDE WEST...PASSING NORTH OF PUERTO RICO ON MONDAY
WHILE WEAKENING. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC
WILL BUILD OVER THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA DURING THE WEEK.

AT MID LEVELS...A TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM A LOW IN THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WILL CROSS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT
AND MOVE INTO THE BAHAMA ISLANDS ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IN THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC BETWEEN 20 AND 30 NORTH WILL GRADUALLY EXTEND
WEST DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK UNTIL IT DOMINATES MOST OF THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC BY MID WEEK.

AT LOWER LEVELS...AN INVERTED TROUGH...THE REFLECTION OF THE MID AND UPPER
LEVEL TROUGHS WILL PASS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL WINDS
WILL THEN TURN SOUTHEAST AND INCREASE SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
DURING THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK SEVERAL BANDS OF MOISTURE PASS
BY THEN THERE WILL BE A RELATIVELY STRONG WAVE PASSAGE ON
THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY RAPID DRYING ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...POPCORN SHOWERS GREW OVERNIGHT EVENTUALLY COVERING
THE MAJORITY OF THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF PUERTO RICO WITH
MEASURABLE RAIN. THE AIRPORT AT SAN JUAN RECORDED SEVENTEEN
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH THE FIRST SEVERAL HOURS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THESE SHOWERS OCCURRED AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ITS LOWER
LEVEL REFLECTION APPROACHED THE LOCAL AREA FROM THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS. WITH THE MOST ACTIVE PORTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL TUTT
APPROACHING THE AREA MORE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED OVER THE AREA...AND
ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN PUERTO RICO DURING THE AFTERNOON...THAN WAS
HAD ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE CONTINUES SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS SOUTHEAST AND THE FOCUS OF THE AFTERNOON
PRECIPITATION SHIFTS TO THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE ISLAND.
THROUGH ALL OF THIS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS WILL GENERALLY ONLY
SEE ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. ON TUESDAY AN
ALTERNATING PATTERN OF WET AND DRY BANDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS BEGINS
UNTIL A MODERATELY STRONG WAVE PASSES THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. DURING THE MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY PERIOD THE SOUTHEAST
WINDS IN THE LOWER LEVELS INCREASE THEN MUCH DRIER AIR FILLS IN THE
NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN USHERING IN A RELATIVELY DRY
PERIOD FOR THE VERY END OF THE WEEK. ALTHOUGH CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
AND GUSTY WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WAVE
THURSDAY...MID LEVEL MOISTURE BETWEEN 850 AND 650 MB IS STILL
FAIRLY WEAK AND WIND FLOW IS 20 TO 30 KNOTS. THIS WILL KEEP THE
CHANCES OF LOCAL FLOODING QUITE LOW THEN AS WELL AS DURING THE
NEXT 10 DAYS FROM NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL TAF
SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...BRIEF SHRAS COULD
AFFECT TJSJ...TJBQ...TIST...TISX..TNCM AND TKPK THIS MORNING.
SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SW QUADRANT OF PR BTWN 17Z-
21Z...PRODUCING MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION OVER INTERIOR PORTIONS OF PR.
MOST OF THE SHRA ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED JUST WEST OF
TJPS AND SOUTH OF TJMZ. LLVL WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE ENE AT
AROUND 15 KT...VEERING TO THE ESE AFT 14/00Z.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS CONTINUE RELATIVELY PLACID THROUGH THE WEEK...BUT
WILL INCREASE AS WINDS INCREASE MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. AT THIS TIME
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 7 FEET THE ENTIRE WEEK.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 76 86 77 / 30 40 30 30
STT 88 77 88 78 / 30 50 40 30

[Gustywind]

Off topic, here is a excellent news from Guadeloupe concerning two mens who were missing at sea since month. Whereas, if one man is alive but seriously exhausted and dehydrated.... the other is dead .

http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.a ... 225222.php

[b]DISMASTED
Disappearance of two Saintois: a death and a survivor off the coast of the Venezuela[/b]

Missing at sea for more than a month, Jean-Louis Cassin and Daniel Judes have been found. Only one of the sailors survived. The boat, which was drifting without mast South of the Aves archipelago, was scuttled.

Yesterday, the information fed into conversations, les Saintes. "Everyone only talks about it", said a resident. Jean-Louis living Cassin, would have found the Venezuela offshore. Jean-Louis Cassin and Daniel Judes were missing for more than a month. The two Saintois had left Terre-de-Haut on 9 June, on a sailing boat of 11 metres, the Fan. They had to go to St. Barts, but never arrived at destination. At last, they were headed to the North Island. This is at least confirmed the, the mobile phone of one of the two men who raised the antenna relay of Pointe-Noire. But after that, nothing more. No sign of life. And research remained vain.


VERY DEHYDRATED

Until an American plane spotted a boat, apparently in difficulty off the coast of the Venezuela. A frigate of the Venezuelan Coast Guard is baffled and visited area Wednesday.

She spotted a sailing ship flying the French flag in the South of the archipelago Les Aves (380 km southwest of Guadeloupe).

It was the Fan. In pretty bad condition and without mast. The coast guard found two men on board. A sadly passed away. Another badly in point, but living. "Very dehydrated", indicated yesterday evening the Commander of the company of Saint-Claude, Captain Lakshmi. The mounted police was alerted to the discovery of the operational boat by the regional Centre for monitoring and rescue (Crossag). A priori, it is Jean-Louis Cassin who would have survived. But Captain Nathan remained cautious, no French authority having not seen visually. The Venezuelan Coast Guard recovered the body and provided first aid to the surviving sailor. They bring back to Caracas. Last night, they were road to the port of La Guaira, where they were due to dock at 6 o'clock this morning. As to what happened to them, Captain Lakshmi was yesterday evening no element of explanation. An investigation will be opened by the Venezuelan authorities. Note that the boat could not be towed, was scuttled.

[b]-Pending the appeal of Jean-Louis[/b]

The announcement of the discovery of the boat and the rescue of one of the sailors, priori Jean-Louis Cassin, his family responds: "we have never lost hope. We knew, deep in us, that he was alive we look forward that it falls to be able to tighten it in our arms. When we heard the news of his rescue, information circulated quickly throughout the island. The expressions of sympathy were immediate, all Saintois. The Saintois also have a thought for Daniel Judes.

-BENCHMARKS

Parties on 9 June

The two friends left Terre-de-Haut June 9 on the sailboat of Jean-Louis Cassin, the Fan . The Saintois, accustomed to navigating wanted to lend a hand to his friend by driving cheaply in St Barts to see his son. Jean-Louis wanted to take the opportunity to discover the island.

Never arrived

Jean-Louis Cassin and Daniel Judes never arrived in St Barts. Their loved ones have ended up worry and to sound the alarm. But it was already eight days that the two men had left the Holy. No date of event and location specific, difficult to find in the vastness of the sea of the Caribbean.

Research
Meteorological studies to determine currents and guide research in the event or the monohull would have derived. But they remained empty.

Alert
A warning issued to all vessels, cruise as trade, entering in Caribbean waters.All French consulates in countries ranging from Venezuela to Puerto Rico and Islands have been advised. Similarly that all authorities, ports and marinas in the Caribbean to U.S. shores. A call for witnesses has even launched by the gendarmerie.

Investigation

An investigation was opened by the gendarmerie of Terre-de-Haut for disturbing disappearance of adults. It should continue, but the Venezuela.
To understand what has happened to the two sailors. Damage? Bad weather conditions? Shot of sea? Collision? Only the surviving sailor may explain it.

[cycloneye]

Forecast from different islands

http://www.antiguamet.com/

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
249 PM AST SAT JUL 13 2013

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT NE OF THE AREA WILL RETROGRESS TO THE BAHAMAS OVR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS THEN FILL. MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL THEN
BUILD ACROSS THE ATLC NEXT WEEK. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA WED NIGHT AND THU.

&&

.DISCUSSION...TUTT INDUCED TROF WILL MOVE WWD ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA AREA TONIGHT AND INTO HISPANIOLA SUN. MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVR THE NEXT 24 HRS YIELDING
NMRS SHRA/TSRA. EXPECT CONVECTION TOMORROW TO BE DEEPER WITH THE
RISK OF HEAVY RAINFALL. GRADUAL DRYING IS EXPECTED MON.

LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL BUILD TUE-WED UNDER STRONG RIDGE
ALOFT GREATLY INHIBITING CONVECTION. NEXT TROPICAL WAVE WILL REACH
THE AREA WED NIGHT BRINGING BETTER OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE NEXT WEEK UNDER
STRENGTHENING HIGH PRES. TEMPERATURES ALSO LOOK TO BE ON THE RISE
TUE-THU. SAHARAN AIR LAYER LOOKS TO ESTABLISH FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTH AND WESTERN PR EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE UNTIL 13/22Z...AFFECTING AREAS AROUND TJPS AND
TJMZ...POSSIBLY CAUSING MVFR CONDITIONS. ACROSS THE REST OF THE
TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH PASSING SHRA IN THE
EVENING. SFC WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE ENE AT AROUND 10 KTS OR LESS
THIS EVENING...VEERING BECOMING ESE AFT 14/10Z.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS 1-3 FT BUILDING TO 4-5 FT NEXT WEEK UNDER
STRENGTHENING TRADE WINDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 86 78 88 / 40 30 30 30
STT 78 88 78 89 / 50 40 30 30

[cycloneye]

PR wll be going thru two periods of rain starting tonight with the TUTT trough moving north of the island and the Tropical Wave in the Central Atlantic by next Wednesday.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1022 PM AST SAT JUL 13 2013

.UPDATE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PERSISTED THIS EVENING
ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS. SEVERAL FLOOD ADVISORIES WERE
ISSUED FOR MUNICIPALITIES TO THE NORTH OF CORDILLERA CENTRAL. A
FLASH FLOOD WARNING AND AN AREAL FLOOD WARNING WERE ALSO ISSUED FOR
RIO CIBUCO THIS EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A MOIST
AND UNSTABLE EAST NORTHEAST WIND FLOW IN COMBINATION WITH A TUTT LOW
JUST NORTH NORTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO. THE INDUCED TROUGH ASSOCIATED
WITH THE TUTT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD OVERNIGHT...INDUCING
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS
EASTERN AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON
AND POSSIBLE MONDAY...THESE FEATURES ARE EXPECTED TO COMBINE WITH
DAYTIME HEATING AND LOCAL ISLANDS EFFECTS TO PRODUCE A GOOD ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND PARTS OF
THE LOCAL ISLANDS. LATEST COMPUTER MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A
GENERAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE IS EXPECTED LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
IN ASSOCIATION WITH A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 38 WEST THIS
EVENING.

[cycloneye]

Good morning. This week PR and adjacent islands will be with troughs and waves moving thru so it will be mainly rainy.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
536 AM AST SUN JUL 14 2013

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A STRONG TUTT NORTH OF THE AREA WILL
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES WEST BUT TROUGHINESS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD BETWEEN 20 AND 30 NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES
THE CARIBBEAN AFTER THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK.

AT MID LEVELS...A MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES WEST ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS NORTH
OF THE AREA DURING THE WEEK AND THIS MAINTAINS EASTERLY FLOW OVER
THE CARIBBEAN.

AT LOWER LEVELS...A WEAK LOW LEVEL TROUGH MOVED OVER THE LOCAL
AREA OVERNIGHT. TRADE WIND FLOW FROM THE EAST SOUTHEAST WILL
STRENGTHEN DURING THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WEST
CENTRAL ATLANTIC WATERS DURING THE WEEK. A TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY. BOTH ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. DRYING FOLLOWS ON FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE TUTT LOW JUST NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA CONTINUES
TO PLAY AN ACTIVE ROLE IN THE WEATHER THIS WEEKEND. YESTERDAY A
TROUGH MOVED THROUGH THE AREA JUST AS A WEAK TROUGH OUT OF THE
TUTT WAS PASSING THROUGH AND...COUPLED WITH THE WEAKER
WINDS NEAR THE SURFACE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED ACROSS MOST
OF PUERTO RICO DURING THE AFTERNOON THAT PROVOKED FLOODING AND
FLASH FLOODING IN SEVERAL AREAS...INCLUDING THE CIBUCO RIVER.
OVERNIGHT SHOWERS WERE SCATTERED AND MAINLY OVER THE LOCAL
WATERS...BUT SOME SHOWERS CROSSED THROUGH SAN JUAN AND EASTERN
PUERTO RICO. AMOUNTS RANGED FROM THE 0.06 INCHES REGISTERED AT THE
LMM INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT BOTH IN THE RAIN GAGE AND ON THE RADAR TO
THE ONE AND ONE HALF INCHES REGISTERED ON THE COAST AROUND THE
OUTLET OF THE RIO GRANDE DE LOIZA ON NWS DOPPLER RADAR. SATELLITE AND
MIMIC IMAGERY INDICATE THAT VERY GOOD MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE OVER
PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS TODAY. BOTH THE GFS AND
THE MIMIC PRODUCT SUGGEST THAT ANOTHER TROUGH PASSAGE IS TO BE
EXPECTED AS THE LOW LEVEL WINDS TURN SOUTHEAST OVER THE AREA. THIS
WILL ENHANCE CONVECTION OVER THE AREA WITH A SPECIFIC FOCUS IN THE
NORTHWEST PORTION OF PUERTO RICO. MOISTURE DIMINISHES ON MONDAY
SOMEWHAT...BUT THE GFS SHOWS THAT IT TENDS TO OCCUR AFTER MAXIMUM
HEATING ON MONDAY AND HENCE ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH MONDAY. WITH WINDS NOT INCREASING VERY MUCH TODAY OR
MONDAY...IT IS REASONABLE TO EXPECT THAT SOME AREAS MAY RECEIVE
ENOUGH RAIN TO DRIVE LOCAL STREAMS OVER THEIR BANKS AND ANOTHER
ROUND OF VERY LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR
EITHER SUNDAY OR MONDAY. LOW LEVEL WINDS...MAINLY BETWEEN 850 AND 700 MB
INCLUSIVE...NOW ARE SHOWN TO INCREASE THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A
SLIGHT RESPONSE AT THE SURFACE. THIS SHOULD MAKE ITS MOST
PRONOUNCED EFFECT ON THURSDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE NEXT WAVE.
FIRST HOWEVER THE GFS SHOWS A MOIST TROUGH WITH SHARP MOISTURE
GRADIENTS AHEAD AND BEHIND IT BEING PUSHED AHEAD OF THE TROPICAL
WAVE. CURRENT TIMING WOULD BRING IT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A
SHORT LIVED DRY SLOT FOLLOWING...THEN THE MORE WIDESPREAD MOISTURE
BOTH AHEAD AND BEHIND THE WAVE PASSES THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY NIGHT WITH DRYING ON FRIDAY. LIFTED
INDICES AS A PROXY OF INSTABILITY AND CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DECREASE
CONSIDERABLY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE NEXT SHARP WAVE IS BEING
PULLED IN MONDAY NIGHT WITH MOISTURE FOLLOWING ON TUESDAY OF NEXT
WEEK.

AFRICAN DUST CONCENTRATIONS REMAIN MINIMAL UNTIL THURSDAY OF THIS
WEEK WHEN EASTERLIES DEEPEN AND WIND SPEEDS OF 25-30 KNOTS ARE
FORECAST BETWEEN 4 AND 18 KFT.

&&

.AVIATION...
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL TAF SITES
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...PASSING SHWRS COULD AFFECT
TJSJ...TIST...TISX..TNCM AND TKPK THE REST OF THE MORNING.
THEN...AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP OVER THE INTERIOR...NORTH
AND NORTHWESTERN PR BTWN 16Z-21Z...PRODUCING MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS AND PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDS IN AND AROUND TJMZ AND
TJBQ. LLVL WINDS WILL VEER FROM THE ESE TO SE DURING THE DAY AT
10-15 KT...INCREASING TO 15-20 KT AFT 15/00Z.


&&

.MARINE...MARINE CONDITIONS REMAIN RATHER TRANQUIL THROUGH AT
LEAST WEDNESDAY. SOME INCREASE IN SEAS IN RESPONSE TO INCREASED
WINDS ACCOMPANYING THE NEXT WAVE WILL SEE SEES IN THE EXPOSED AND
OUTER WATERS RISE TO 6 FEET THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 77 87 77 / 40 50 50 40
STT 88 78 89 79 / 40 50 50 30

[cycloneye]

Forecast from some Caribbean Islands

http://www.antiguamet.com/

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
302 PM AST SUN JUL 14 2013

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT LOW TO THE NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA IS EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY MOVE WEST AS IT WEAKENS BY TUESDAY. HOWEVER...TROUGHINESS
WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER LEVELS OVER THE AREA. A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WEST CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND MOVE A
BIT TO THE WEST AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES. A TROPICAL WAVE IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY...BRINGING AN INCREASE
IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED TODAY ACROSS
SEVERAL SECTORS OF PUERTO RICO DUE TO THE INTERACTION OF THE LOCAL
EFFECTS...AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND THE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS. THESE
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER SUNSET AND
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN...AFFECTING THE LOCAL
WATERS...THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO. A
SIMILAR PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR TOMORROW AS THE WIND IS EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND EVEN MORE AVAILABLE MOISTURE
MOVES IN FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS...CAUSING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL
SECTIONS OF MAINLAND PUERTO RICO. ONCE AGAIN A SIMILAR PATTERN
EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY BUT MAYBE NOT AS ACTIVE AS THE UPPER LOW
WEAKENS AND RELATIVELY DRIER AIR MOVES IN. THE TROPICAL WAVE
EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY SHOULD BRING PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND A
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY AND COVERAGE IS EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CONDITIONS FOR TJBQ AND TJMZ ARE EXPECTED WHILE
THE SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY CONTINUES UNTIL ABOUT 14/21Z. A FEW SHOWERS
MAY ALSO AFFECT TJSJ. THIS EVENING PASSING SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
WHICH MAY BRIEFLY AFFECT TIST/TISX AND TKPK/TNCM. WIND WILL BE
FROM THE EAST SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS TONIGHT.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL BE RELATIVELY CALM. SEAS OF UP TO 4 FEET AND
WINDS OF UP TO 16 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF TODAY AND
INTO MONDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 87 77 89 / 50 50 40 20
STT 78 89 79 90 / 50 50 30 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1040 PM AST SUN JUL 14 2013

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DOTTED
THE ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS THIS EVENING. FEW SHOWERS
AFFECTED THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...VIEQUES...CULEBRA AND THE EASTERN
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO FROM TIME TO TIME SO FAR THIS EVENING. A
TUTT LOW JUST NORTH OF PUERTO RICO THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO
PROMOTE A MOIST AND UNSTABLE WEATHER ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE REGION
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FOR TOMORROW...SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO DURING THE MORNING HOURS. WITH A PREVAILING SOUTHEAST
LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AGAIN ACROSS NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL SECTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AS OF TODAY...THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO LAST UNTIL THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. DUE TO THE SATURATED
SOILS FROM PREVIOUS DAYS RAINFALL...A RAPID RISES IN SOME RIVER
NORTH OF CORDILLERA CENTRAL ARE POSSIBLE. BETTER WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY...AS THE UPPER LOW NORTH OF THE REGION
WEAKENS. A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE...ALONG 45 WEST THIS EVENING...WILL
REACH THE LOCAL ISLANDS BY THURSDAY...INCREASING THE CLOUDINESS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION.

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Variable weather is expected today in PR with scattered showers mixed with some sunshine. A big ncrease in showers will occur starting on Wednesday night as a Tropical Wave arrives.

AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
453 AM AST MON JUL 15 2013

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT LOW NORTH OF THE LOCAL REGION WILL MOVE SLOWLY TO
THE WEST DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS IT WEAKENS. HOWEVER...A
TROUGHINESS AT UPPER LEVELS REMAINS WEST OF THE AREA THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
WILL MOVE CLOSER TO THE ISLANDS BY MIDWEEK. THE NEXT TROPICAL
WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ON THURSDAY...
BRINGING AN INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...TRADE WIND SHOWERS HAVE BEEN AFFECTING THE REGIONAL
WATERS AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...CULEBRA...
VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO SINCE MIDNIGHT. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ACTIVITY HAVE BEEN GENERALLY LESS THAN ONE
QUARTER OF AN INCH. THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
TRADE WIND SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLANDS THE REST OF TODAY. SEA
BREEZES ACROSS MAINLAND PUERTO RICO WILL FOCUS THE AFTERNOON
CONVECTION ACROSS THE INTERIOR...NORTH AND NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO. WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SOMEWHAT ACROSS THE
LOCAL REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AS MOISTURE DECREASES AND THE
TUTT LOW MOVES WEST INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. AS A RESULT...THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MORE LOCALIZED OVER WESTERN PUERTO RICO.
ALTHOUGH...IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...GFS BRING IN A
BAND OF ENHANCED MOISTURE RIDING THE TRADES LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING THAT COULD INCREASE THE RAIN
COVERAGE OVER THE WINDWARD SIDE OF THE ISLANDS. CURRENT MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOWS A NEXT TROPICAL WAVE ENTERING THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
ON THURSDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY BRING A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE
IN SHOWER ACTIVITY. STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL
TAF SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...VCSH ARE EXPECTED
AROUND TIST...TISX..TNCM AND TKPK THE REST OF THE MORNING. THEN...
AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP OVER THE INTERIOR...NORTH AND
NORTHWESTERN PR BTWN 16Z-21Z...PRODUCING MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS AND
PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDS IN AND AROUND TJMZ AND TJBQ. LLVL WINDS
WILL REMAIN FROM THE SE DURING THE DAY AT 10-15 KT.

&&

.MARINE...MARINE CONDITIONS REMAIN RATHER TRANQUIL THROUGH AT
LEAST LATE WEDNESDAY. SOME INCREASE IN SEAS IN RESPONSE TO
INCREASED WINDS ACCOMPANYING THE NEXT WAVE WILL OCCUR IN THE
EXPOSED AND OUTER WATERS...RISING TO 6 FEET THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 76 89 79 / 50 40 20 30
STT 86 78 89 80 / 50 30 20 50

[cycloneye]

Forecast from some Caribbean Islands

http://www.antiguamet.com/

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
258 PM AST MON JUL 15 2013

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT LOW NORTH OF THE LOCAL REGION WILL MOVE SLOWLY TO
THE WEST DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS IT WEAKENS. HOWEVER...A
TROUGHINESS AT UPPER LEVELS REMAINS WEST OF THE AREA THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
WILL MOVE CLOSER TO THE ISLANDS BY MIDWEEK. THE NEXT TROPICAL
WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ON THURSDAY...
BRINGING AN INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTED THE NORTHERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO. THESE
SHOWERS GENERATED HEAVY DOWNPOURS OVER THIS AREA. VARIOUS URBAN AND
SMALL STREAM ADVISORIES. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS ESTIMATES WERE
FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES. PASSING SHOWERS ALSO AFFECTED THE
CULEBRA...VIEQUES AND THE USVI. MOST OF THESE SHOWERS WILL
DISSIPATE BEFORE SUNSET. TONIGHT...SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
LOCAL WATERS AND AFFECT THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO.

FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THE SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MORE LOCALIZED
OVER WESTERN PUERTO RICO. ALTHOUGH...IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED...GFS BRING IN A BAND OF ENHANCED MOISTURE RIDING THE
TRADES LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING THAT
COULD INCREASE THE RAIN COVERAGE OVER THE WINDWARD SIDE OF THE
ISLANDS. CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A NEXT TROPICAL WAVE
ENTERING THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...PASSING SHWRS IN AND AROUND
TJSJ...TJBQ...TJMZ...TIST...TISX...TNCM AND TKPK MAY PRODUCE PERIODS
OF MVFR OR EVEN IFR CONDITIONS...AS WELL AS MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION.
LLVL WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE E OR ESE AT AROUND 10-15 KT.
CONDITIONS WILL SLIGHTLY IMPROVE BY 06Z.


&&

.MARINE...MARINE CONDITIONS REMAIN RATHER TRANQUIL THROUGH AT
LEAST LATE WEDNESDAY. SOME INCREASE IN SEAS IN RESPONSE TO
INCREASED WINDS ACCOMPANYING THE NEXT WAVE WILL OCCUR IN THE
EXPOSED AND OUTER WATERS...RISING TO 6 FEET THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 89 79 88 / 40 20 30 20
STT 78 89 80 90 / 30 20 50 30

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1008 PM AST MON JUL 15 2013

.UPDATE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUED UNTIL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY IN THE EVENING
ACROSS EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN PUERTO RICO. HOWEVER BY THIS
TIME...THERE IS NOT SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION OVER PUERTO RICO AND
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS PERSISTED
ACROSS THE SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS. TODAY`S SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS
THE RESULT OF A TUTT LOW NORTH OF PUERTO RICO IN COMBINATION WITH
DAYTIME HEATING AND LOCAL ISLANDS EFFECTS. THE TUTT LOW IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE SLOWLY WESTWARD AS IT WEAKENS DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...LOOSING ITS INFLUENCES OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS. FOR
TOMORROW...THE SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MORE LOCALIZED. DURING THE
MORNING HOURS SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO. WITH A PREVAILING SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHWEST AND
NORTH CENTRAL SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A
WEAK TROPICAL WAVE...ALONG 55 WEST THIS EVENING...WILL REACH THE
LOCAL ISLANDS BY THURSDAY...INCREASING THE CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS.