Northern GOM

[fwbbreeze]

appears to be a small circulation just south of Destin/Pensacola. Not much to it at this time but I do recall a model a couple of days ago showing somthing popping up in this area.

not much on radar http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=EVX&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=yes
but it shows up a bit better on visible satellite http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html

fwbbreeze
"from the backwoods"

[wxman57]

I don't see anything there, but I would keep an eye on the small wave developing along the decaying frontal boundary to the southeast of the Mouth of the Mississippi. There's a chance for development before it moves inland into AL/MS on Sunday.

[Aric Dunn]

I don't see anything there, but I would keep an eye on the small wave developing along the decaying frontal boundary to the southeast of the Mouth of the Mississippi. There's a chance for development before it moves inland into AL/MS on Sunday.

I think thats what hes referring too.. been looking at it today seeing if any convection develops with it.

[cycloneye]

A weak circulation is in that area.

[N2Storms]

An exerpt from the the 3:00pm AFD from the NWS Tallahassee:

The tricky part of the forecast involves the development of a closed
circulation on this trough and where it moves once formed. There is
now a general model consensus that low pressure will develop over
the northeast Gulf of Mexico and if it does, it will be pulled
closer to the coast as the upper system gains longitude and pulls it
northward. It appears at this time that a closed circulation can be
deduced from satellite imagery and buoy data just southeast of the
mouth of the Mississippi River. We therefore chose to go with the
more westward cyclogenesis depicted in the GFS. This model then
draws the low northwestward toward the Mississippi coast on Sunday.
The take away here is that there is a lot of uncertainty in the
forecast and that winds could change considerably over what is
issued today. Regardless of where the low develops, it does appear
more certain that a high PoP forecast remains in order. Drier air
aloft will initially keep PoPs lower across our western zones, but
likely PoPs are expected for most areas with categorical for the
eastern FL Big Bend counties on Saturday.

[Hurricaneman]

I wouldn't be surprised if by tomorrow this was 97L to be honest if the convection persist

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[tropicwatch]

Pressures are fall pretty good in the north GOM.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/radial_search. ... t=A&time=3

[Hurricaneman]

The 18zGFS forms a low but doesn't do much with it before landfall due to shear, but I do think this will become something in the next couple of days before shear gets it

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[Dean4Storms]

Gonna watch it, might sneak up on us.

[TheStormExpert]

Local met. here in West Palm Beach, FL thinks it may try to become a subtropical storm according to a model he uses.

[EmeraldCoast93]

A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPEARS TO BE FORMING OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS LOW
SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT DRIFTS NORTHWARD. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

[Hurricane Alexis]

Interesting little feature to say the least. Looks like it has a chance to be a shadow storm.


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[bamajammer4eva]

NWS Tallahassee AFD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
317 AM EDT Sat Jul 13 2013

.NEAR TERM [Today]...
This is a tricky forecast due to a large amount of uncertainty with
the developing area of low pressure in the northeast Gulf. The
hi-res models, especially our local ARW runs, are aggressive with
this feature and start moving it northward during the day today. The
GFS also has a weak area of low pressure, but it never develops it
to the extent that the hi-res guidance does. The NAM is somewhere in
between. This has large implications for rainfall amounts and the
potential for flooding. Satellite and radar imagery does confirm
that an area of low pressure appears to be developing in the
northeast Gulf, but at this time we feel that the hi-res models are
overdoing it a bit with respect to this low.

However, this will have to be watched very closely by the next
shift, and if it appears that our local 00z ARW is going to be right
after all, then the forecast rainfall amounts and flooding impacts
would have to be increased considerably into tonight.

Regardless of which solution verifies, today is expected to be
another high PoP day across most of the area with plenty of deep
layer moisture lingering. Highs are expected to be below normal.

[stormhunter7]

Saw some wsi hi-res data develop a 50mph TS off this in 18z yesterday.. it came down to 40mph TS and moves slowly north and then nw.. landfall around PC sunday morning. Clearly a low is forming on radar

[bamajammer4eva]

Saw some wsi hi-res data develop a 50mph TS off this in 18z yesterday.. it came down to 40mph TS and moves slowly north and then nw.. landfall around PC sunday morning. Clearly a low is forming on radar

Here it is from 01z 13July run

[cycloneye]

Remains at 10%.

SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE DATA SHOW A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
IN THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE
FAVORABLE FOR A NON-TROPICAL LOW TO FORM ALONG THE TROUGH AND THEN
DRIFT NORTHWARD. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO
OCCUR...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[Dean4Storms]

Saw some wsi hi-res data develop a 50mph TS off this in 18z yesterday.. it came down to 40mph TS and moves slowly north and then nw.. landfall around PC sunday morning. Clearly a low is forming on radar

Here it is from 01z 13July run

http://i.imgur.com/RYgZjoK.gif

Do you have a link for this model?

[rockyman]

8am TWD:
GULF OF MEXICO... A 1012 MB LOW IS OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 30N84W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS W FROM THE LOW TO 29N90W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH. A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS S FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR 23N85W TO HONDURAS NEAR 14N87W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER W CUBA W OF 78W. RADAR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER S FLORIDA AND THE SE GULF FROM 25N- 27N BETWEEN 80W-84W. A 1015 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NW GULF NEAR 26N93W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE N GULF N OF 26N SUPPORTING THE SURFACE LOW AND TROUGH. EXPECT THE SURFACE LOW AND TROUGH TO BE QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SHOWERS.

[bamajammer4eva]

Saw some wsi hi-res data develop a 50mph TS off this in 18z yesterday.. it came down to 40mph TS and moves slowly north and then nw.. landfall around PC sunday morning. Clearly a low is forming on radar

Here it is from 01z 13July run

http://i.imgur.com/RYgZjoK.gif

Do you have a link for this model?

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/tae/?n=taewrf12km

[N2FSU]

From the 11am NWS Tallahassee Discussion:

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1109 AM EDT Sat Jul 13 2013


.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

The anomalous and highly complex upper level pattern continues
through the near term. A large cut-off low centered over the
Midwest is gradually retrograding and forecast to slide into the
Upper Mississippi Valley by this evening. Extending from this low,
down into the Southeast was a trough which may have pinched off
another weak upper low over the Florida Panhandle last night aided
by a small complex of storms which moved south into the northern
Gulf last night. As of this morning, this weaker upper low had
also moved into the northern Gulf. At the surface, a broad area of
low pressure sprawls much of the northern Gulf of Mexico. There
may even be a closed circulation south of Mobile and Pensacola,
east of the Louisiana coastline. Extending from this wave of low
pressure are several smaller scale troughs, notably for us, one of
these troughs extends southwest to northeast through Apalachee
Bay. In this same area a weak, but intensifying low level jet is
oriented north to south. The enhanced low level convergence, plus
the aforementioned upper level support will generate widespread
shower and thunderstorm development once again today. Expect
coverage to be highest east of Tallahassee and Albany earlier in
the day, gradually spreading west and filling in through the day.

.SHORT TERM [Sunday Through Tuesday]...
Another feature to watch for this period is a weak low
in the NE Gulf that some models are developing from Saturday night
into Sunday along the weak stationary front in this region. Still
uncertain how much this feature would develop due to
inconsistencies in the past few hi-res model runs, and where it
would come onshore if it does develop. The main threat from this
feature would be heavy rain, which, depending on its track, could
aggravate flooding issues in areas that have received heavy rain
recently.