Northern GOM

[Bartholemew Roberts]

Is it getting any better organized?

[bamajammer4eva]

Looks very broad to me on Satellite/Radar

[cycloneye]

2 PM EDT TWO:

SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE DATA SHOW A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
IN THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
LIKELY TO LIMIT ANY FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE. THE
SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[Dean4Storms]

Saw some wsi hi-res data develop a 50mph TS off this in 18z yesterday.. it came down to 40mph TS and moves slowly north and then nw.. landfall around PC sunday morning. Clearly a low is forming on radar

Here it is from 01z 13July run

http://i.imgur.com/RYgZjoK.gif

Do you have a link for this model?

Thanks Stormhunter7

[Dean4Storms]

No changes yet really. Think it's most opportune time to develop is tonight if it is going to at all.

[Dean4Storms]

12z GFS Closes off the low by Sunday. The concern for me is that neither the GEM nor NAVGEM do anything with it. When these two show nothing, that is the time for concern!

[ronjon]

You can defintely see the low level spin south of APP but shear is just too much to get anything going.

http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/satellite/displaySat.php?region=TPA&itype=vis&size=large&endDate=20100612&endTime=-1&duration=3

[Hurricane_Luis]

Shame it may not have enough time over water, it will probably make landfall tomorrow...but this is the tropics, so never say never

[Dean4Storms]

You can defintely see the low level spin south of APP but shear is just too much to get anything going.

http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/satellite/displaySat.php?region=TPA&itype=vis&size=large&endDate=20100612&endTime=-1&duration=3

Convection refiring on the eastern side and appears that the LLC is drifting eastward a bit toward the convection.

[cycloneye]

8 PM TWO:

A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. STRONG
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS SHOULD LIMIT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW AS IT BEGINS
MOVING NORTHWARD. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[rockyman]

[TheStormExpert]

I'd say the chances of development are 5% at best.

[Dean4Storms]

The Local WRF-ARW at 8pm EST..still closes of the low before coming on shore with winds 30-40kts.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/tae/models.php? ... t=1&end=60

[Bartholemew Roberts]

The Local WRF-ARW at 8pm EST..still closes of the low before coming on shore with winds 30-40kts.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/tae/models.php? ... t=1&end=60

How good is that model at forecasting a developing low pressure like this and does it show it being tropical?

[Dean4Storms]

The Local WRF-ARW at 8pm EST..still closes of the low before coming on shore with winds 30-40kts.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/tae/models.php? ... t=1&end=60

How good is that model at forecasting a developing low pressure like this and does it show it being tropical?

Not sure, I know the NWS uses it so it must have some weight.

[bamajammer4eva]

One thing worth noting is that model's very poor initialization of radar for 00z-shows little precip in SE Alabama and right now my area is under Flash Flood warnings and some areas around here have seen 3-5"+ of rain tonight and it's still coming down... Not sure if that would mean its over or under doing the low pressure.

[bamajammer4eva]

Latest loop
http://www.wunderground.com/radar/mixed ... &type=loop

Latest radar/My guess of low pressure area and movement

[cycloneye]

There is still a naked swirl just south of Panhandle.

[MGC]

Upper levels could not be more hostile in the GOM currently......MGC