Area of disturbed weather over the southern GOM

[NDG]

I am really surprised they named this an Invest with no model support and surface pressures in this area a good 3 mb higher than yesterday.
The disturbed wx entering the FL straights look more interesting to me than this.

[JonathanBelles]

NOAA NWS National Hurricane Center (facebook)

We've gotten at least one phone call from someone wondering why guidance models were run on "Invest AL97" today, even though we're not mentioning anything in our Tropical Weather Outlook. This invest was started purely for testing purposes in connection with the planned transition to the new NWS supercomputer next week. Once the testing has been completed, the invest AL97 will be deactivated.

We know that people tend to follow these invest systems more closely now than in the past, but this should serve as a reminder that invests can be opened for a variety of reasons, not all of them meteorological.

[southerngale]

That makes sense and the vast majority of the public doesn't even have a clue there's an Invest anyway. It's just us weather weenies.

[cycloneye]

And they did.

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_DEACTIVATE_al972013.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201307162029
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END

[tailgater]

NOAA NWS National Hurricane Center (facebook)

We've gotten at least one phone call from someone wondering why guidance models were run on "Invest AL97" today, even though we're not mentioning anything in our Tropical Weather Outlook. This invest was started purely for testing purposes in connection with the planned transition to the new NWS supercomputer next week. Once the testing has been completed, the invest AL97 will be deactivated.

We know that people tend to follow these invest systems more closely now than in the past, but this should serve as a reminder that invests can be opened for a variety of reasons, not all of them meteorological.

Anybody know what this new Super Computer will do that the old ones didn't or is it just a lot faster?

[midnight8]

Here is a story I found about the upgrade.


http://www.redorbit.com/news/science/11 ... de-051713/

[AJC3]

Does the SHIP intensity forecast go up to 60 knots because it doesn't take land interaction into account or does that have another reason?

Precisely.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/modelsummary.shtml

Statistical-Dynamical Models

Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme (SHIPS)

The SHIPS model is a statistical-dynamical intensity model based on statistical relationships between storm behavior and environmental conditions estimated from dynamical model forecasts as well as on climatology and persistence predictors. Due to the use of the dynamical predictors, the average intensity errors from SHIPS are typically 10%-15% less than those from SHIFOR5. SHIPS has historically outperformed most of the dynamical models, including the GFDL, and SHIPS has traditionally been one of the most skillful sources of intensity guidance for NHC.

SHIPS is based on standard multiple regression techniques. The predictors for SHIPS include climatology and persistence, atmospheric environmental parameters (e.g., vertical wind shear, stability, etc.), and oceanic input such as sea surface temperature (SST) and upper-oceanic heat content. Many of the predictors are obtained from the GFS and are averaged over the entire forecast period. The developmental data from which the regression equations are derived include open ocean TCs from 1982 through the present. Each year the regression equations are re-derived based upon the inclusion of the previous year.s data. Therefore, the weighting of the predictors can change from year to year. The predictors currently found to be most statistically significant are: the difference between the current intensity and the estimated maximum potential intensity (MPI), vertical wind shear, persistence, and the upper-tropospheric temperature. SHIPS also includes predictors from satellite data such as the strength and symmetry of convection as measured from infrared satellite imagery and the heat content of the upper ocean determined from satellite altimetry observations.

Decay-SHIPS

Decay-SHIPS is a version of SHIPS that includes an inland decay component. Since land interactions result in weakening, the Decay-SHIPS will typically provide more accurate TC intensity forecasts when TCs encounter or interact with land. Over open water with no land interactions, the intensity forecasts from Decay SHIPS and SHIPS will be identical.

[Extratropical94]

Thank you for that explanation.

[tailgater]

Thanks for the link, the technology is impoving which is great but will it cost poeple jobs? I guess Meteorolgist will become data entry personnel. J/J

[CrazyC83]

Why didn't they just call it 80L or some other test number?

[JonathanBelles]

Why didn't they just call it 80L or some other test number?

That was my first thought.

[tolakram]

Unlocking since 97L was a test.

[tolakram]

Locking. Should this be merged with the original thread?

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=115234&p=2320929#p2320929

[cycloneye]

Locking. Should this be merged with the original thread?

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=115234&p=2320929#p2320929

The 97L thread has been merged with this one as it was a test invest so we can continue here discussing about it.

[brunota2003]

Why didn't they just call it 80L or some other test number?

That was my first thought.

I'm wondering if they didn't need an actual number to use...usually they use the 80s for tests, but they likely wanted to ensure 90s would activate the computer just the same (no software glitches). It would suck to get over to a brand new computer, only to realize 97L doesn't trip the system like it is supposed to...and all just because you didn't want to use a 90s number.

As far as location, I would have put a message out a few hours beforehand, and used an area way out in the Atlantic...versus a blob in the GOM. But that's just me.

[JonathanBelles]

They have offered an explanation of their numbering on their facebook page.