North / Northeastern GOM

[SouthFloridawx]

Thanks Pete!

[ozonepete]

Yer welcome!

[tropicwatch]

Nice rotation showing up off the east coast of Florida on radar.

http://www.wjhg.com/weather/interactiveradar

[Bartholemew Roberts]

Nice rotation showing up off the east coast of Florida on radar.

http://www.wjhg.com/weather/interactiveradar

Looks pretty impressive but only a few hours till its overland.

[tropicwatch]

Won't take long for it to get to the GOM.

[northjaxpro]

Yeah, this is the wave axis that has been tracked for the past five days from the Central Atlantic. It will cross over the peninsula and emerge into the GOM by late tonight and early Tuesday. Will watch to see if it tries to develop, but shear in the GOM is too strong currently.

[northjaxpro]

Water vapor imagery shows the ULL very well, moving west approaching the East Central Florida coast.

[northjaxpro]

Convecton has really increased today across the Bahamas and the Florida Straits as this area of disturbed weather continues to meander across this region. There are no indications of any pressure falls yet, but I have to admit that this area keeps lingering around.

Will keep monitoing it. It is under the warm Gulf Stream currently and any disturbance hanging around the FL Straits needs to be watched.

[NDG]

I have been watching the area of the FL Straights all afternoon, a weak vorticity formed along the northern coast of Cuba this afternoon but it now appears it collapsed.
The GFS shows this area to split in two, one to move into the GOM and the other to move northward along or just east of the FL coast.
Very tropical along all the FL Peninsula with the easterly winds bringing pop corn style tropical showers off the Atlantic, one minute the sun is out and the next under a heavy tropical shower.

[NDG]

You can see what it appears to be a weak circulation SE of Key West near the northern Coast of Cuba.

['CaneFreak]

Good catch but any circulation that far from the radar (~150 miles) is likely to be mid-level in nature.

You can see what it appears to be a weak circulation SE of Key West near the northern Coast of Cuba.

[NDG]

Yes, I doubt that it is fully at the surface but there is some nice convergence going on in that area at the surface.

[tailgater]

The Nam wants to develop(slightly) that area near the Ilse of Youth as it moves westward.
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/nam/00/nam_wna ... precip.gif

[Ptarmigan]

Heres a list of ULLs that became tropical systems in the last 25 years

2011 Jose 45mph
2010 Otto 85mph
2010 Shary 75mph
2009 Claudette 60mph
2007 Humberto 90mph
2007 TD10 35mph
2005 Tammy 50mph
2004 Nicole 50mph
2004 Otto 50mph
2003 Ana 60mph
2003 TD7 35mph
2003 Erika 75mph
2002 Edouard 65mph
2002 Gustav 100mph
2001 Karen 80mph
2001 Lorenzo 40mph
2000 Florence 80mph
2000 Nadine 60mph
1999 Arlene 60mph
1998 Hermine 45mph
1997 Bill 75mph
1995 Dean 45mph
1994 TD2 35mph
1994 Beryl 60mph
1993 Harvey 75mph
1992 Charley 110mph
1991 Bob 115mph
1991 Claudette 130mph
1990 Edouard 45mph

this has to be watched but if this became a tropical system it would probably be like TD7 in 2003 based on the models and how they are handling this

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

Interesting. Only two upper level lows became Category 3+ hurricanes since 1990 and both occurred in 1991. They are mostly tropical storms or Category 1 hurricanes.

[HurricaneBelle]

Interesting. Only two upper level lows became Category 3+ hurricanes since 1990 and both occurred in 1991. They are mostly tropical storms or Category 1 hurricanes.

Most named storms of any origin only make it to TS or Category 1 status.

[wxman57]

With the upper low tracking westward over the Florida Panhandle and into southern AL/MS over the next few days, development chances are poor. The upper low needs to be over the water. Convection will continue to fire offshore, but in a high shear environment.

[MGC]

I can't recall a ULL boring down to the surface in the GOM and becoming a TC. It will be difficult for a significant low to get going with all that shear.....Atlantic basin is quite hostile for TC development currently........MGC

[Stormcenter]

Personally I hope it stays that way through October. IMO

I can't recall a ULL boring down to the surface in the GOM and becoming a TC. It will be difficult for a significant low to get going with all that shear.....Atlantic basin is quite hostile for TC development currently........MGC

[tropicwatch]

Well there appears to be another ULL just sitting there SE of Miami and pressures at the surface are relatively high. I wonder how long it will hang out there and dump rain of South Florida.

[floridasun78]

it raining like cat and dog in miami started round 11pm it been none stop