Global model runs discussion

[blp]

It's back

12Z

http://img163.imageshack.us/img163/4153/82q.gif[/img]

Yea and the Euro seems to be showing it as well.

[Hurricaneman]

It's back

12Z

http://img163.imageshack.us/img163/4153/82q.gif[/img]

Yea and the Euro seems to be showing it as well.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... !chart.gif

We now have a model consensus and if you mix the Euro and GFS it would need to be watched first in the Caribbean islands including PR, Hispaniola and Cuba and from there the Southeastern US

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[SouthFloridawx]

7/17 - 18Z 850mb Vorticity:

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pp3nEVuFTH0&feature=youtu.be[/youtube]

[N2FSU]

18Z GFS; 192hr. Shows low emerging off of Africa

[N2FSU]

18Z GFS; 384hr

[Alyono]

18z GFS failed to develop CV Wave. Why the model is so inconsistent?

what do you expect from a series of numerical APPROXIMATIONS whose errors grow in time?

[ROCK]

18z GFS failed to develop CV Wave. Why the model is so inconsistent?

what do you expect from a series of numerical APPROXIMATIONS whose errors grow in time?

Thanks for clearing that up....

[northtxboy]

18z GFS failed to develop CV Wave. Why the model is so inconsistent?

what do you expect from a series of numerical APPROXIMATIONS whose errors grow in time?

Could you say that agian with a lower level of language please

[BigB0882]

18Z GFS; 384hr

http://imageshack.com/scaled/large/818/gi6z.png

I know this is very long range but what kind of set up is this showing? It looks a little lower than some storms that would recurve. Is it still heading W or WNW or is it beginning a more NW movement? How does ridging look? I think I see an opening to go East of FL but I can't be sure.

[Stormlover2012]

Would likely get in gulf.

[Blown Away]

Our low is gone from 00z & 06z GFS runs...

[crownweather]

Our low is gone from 00z & 06z GFS runs...

Actually it is still there (low pressure just south of the Cape Verde Islands on July 26th), however GFS seems to pull it northwest and then northward right into a high pressure system (even at 500 mb, no break in ridge evident). This seems quite suspect and am discounting the details of the 00 and 06Z GFS forecast, except the fact it does show low pressure near the Cape Verde Islands on July 26th.

[gatorcane]

A look through all the global models this morning shows basically nothing for the next 7 days at least. The waiting continues...

[Janie2006]

Approximations are just that....mathematical estimates....a guess. Since it isn't *exact* the tendency is to have very large errors as time progresses.

[hurricanedude]

weather in general is largely a guess... I learned that many years ago when my local weatherman said there was no chance of rain for that day...nothing to trigger storms so go ahead with your plans for the day...during his yacking a severe thunderstorm warning was issued, and it seemed to rain and storm all day...and he said "well, i guess i was wrong"....goes without saying..never say never!
.
.

[cycloneye]

12z GFS fails to develop so that makes it three runs in a row that after having a low pressure emerge West Africa,it vanishes later. The waiting continues for the models to show a real consensus.

[SouthFloridawx]

12z GFS fails to develop so that makes it three runs in a row that after having a low pressure emerge West Africa,it vanishes later. The waiting continues for the models to show a real consensus.

Luis... it's definitely still there, just not as strong as the runs yesterday and the day before.

[Ntxw]

Quick update on the MJO and models forecasting it. GFS sends it back into the wrong phases IMO (remember MJO does not go backwards) and most of the weak convection there is exists in the eastern IO/western Maritime but very incoherent. Euro is expecting a renewal wave in the IO which I am more inclined to believe since there is some +mountain torque event support. There could be development during this period but likely rogue. After that it will take about 30-45 days for the new MJO wave to progress back into the favorable phases which if it gets going soon should be about mid to late August. Still favor that period intact with best climo.

[ninel conde]

if things dont pick up by late august its onto next season.

[supercane4867]

Go home GFS, you're drunk