Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

Good morning. A few showers will move thru the area today thru tomorrow but an increase to more showers and wind is expected Wednesday night as a Tropical Wave approaches.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
516 AM AST TUE JUL 16 2013

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT LOW TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST AND AWAY FROM REGION TODAY. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL MOVE CLOSER TO THE REGION
LATER IN THE WEEK. THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...BRINGING AN
INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.
MEANWHILE...EXPECT AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER WESTERN PUERTO RICO AND
BRIEF SHOWERS OVER USVI AND EASTERN PR AT NIGHT AND EARLY IN THE
MORNING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW HAVE PUSHED TRADE WIND
SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...CULEBRA...
VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO EARLY THIS MORNING. RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ACTIVITY HAVE BEEN GENERALLY
LESS THAN TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED PWAT
ANALYSIS SUGGESTS A DRIER AIR MASS UPSTREAM OF THE ISLANDS. GLOBAL
MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THIS DRIER TREND...SUGGESTING
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.5-1.7 INCHES OVER THE NEXT 36
HOURS. IN ADDITION...GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE 0-6
KM AVG WIND WILL INCREASE GRADUALLY FROM 12-14 KT TO 18-22 KT
DURING THE NEXT 96 HOURS. THIS FAST LOW-MID LEVEL WIND FLOW WILL
HELP TO MOVE THE CELLS FAIRLY QUICKLY ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...
RESULTING LESS RAINFALL ACCUMULATION. THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...
EXPECT A TYPICAL WEATHER PATTERN WITH BRIEF SHOWERS OVER THE
WINDWARD AREAS AT NIGHT/MORNING FOLLOWED BY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN PR. WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE
AND BECOME MORE ACTIVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY UNDER INFLUENCE
OF THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE. THIS WAVE AND ASSOCIATED WIND SURGE..WILL
INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR ACTIVE AND SQUALLY WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING WATERS. MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERIC
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND AS A RELATIVELY DRY AIR MOVES OVER THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN
AND A MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS NORTH THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT MOST TAF SITES THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR OR EVEN IFR CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND TJMZ BTWN 17Z-21Z. LLVL WINDS WILL REMAIN
FROM SE TO ESE AT AROUND 10-20 KT.

&&

.MARINE...MARINE CONDITIONS REMAIN RATHER TRANQUIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
SOME INCREASE IN SEAS IN RESPONSE TO INCREASED WINDS ACCOMPANYING
THE NEXT WAVE WILL OCCUR IN THE EXPOSED AND OUTER WATERS...RISING
TO 6 FEET THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 78 88 78 / 20 40 40 60
STT 89 79 90 80 / 20 50 50 60

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
303 PM AST TUE JUL 16 2013

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
CARIBBEAN FROM THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC. A WEAK LOW NORTH OF THE AREA
WILL BUILD SLOWLY DURING THE WEEK AND SHIFT SOUTH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE ATLANTIC FROM
THE EAST AND THEN STRENGTHEN IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. ALTHOUGH
GENERALLY DRY...GOOD MOISTURE FROM PASSING WAVES WILL BE SEEN ON
THURSDAY AND NEXT MONDAY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...A WEAK WAVE THAT MOVED OFF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
THIS MORNING WILL PUSH THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF INTERLUDE OF DRIER AIR AND THEN A
LARGE AREA OF MOISTURE AND A STRONGER WAVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH NOT COMPLETELY DRY THE WEEKEND WILL BE DRIER
THAN THE REST OF THIS WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS BEGAN DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHWEST
PUERTO RICO AFTER 2 PM AST AND SOME TOPS WERE OVER 50 KFT. WINDS
HAVE NOT ALLOWED THEM TO REMAIN IN ANY ONE PLACE VERY LONG SO
FAR. THESE WILL BE MONITORED FOR SMALL HAIL AND URBAN AND SMALL
STREAM FLOODING. A WEAK MESO-CYCLONE WAS OBSERVED AROUND 8 KFT BUT
IS NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SEVERE WEATHER AT THE MOMENT. EXPECT
SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH IMMEDIATELY AFTER SUNSET IN THE
WEST...WHILE THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVES SHOWERS INTO THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND INTO EASTERN PUERTO
RICO SHORTLY THEREAFTER. MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO RISE AND FALL
RAPIDLY WITH THIS WAVE AS CONFIRMED IN THE NARROW MOISTURE BAND
DEPICTED IN THE MIMIC PRODUCT. THEN A WIDER WAVE WITH MOISTURE
AND A SECOND BAND EMBEDDED WITH THE WAVE AXIS WILL BRING SEVERAL
PULSES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL SEE A PUSH AND PULL
BETWEEN DRIER AIR TO THE NORTH AND SATURATED AIR...AT LEAST AT 850
MB...TO THE SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO AND THE NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS THAT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME SUNSHINE AS
WELL. ANOTHER WAVE IS EXPECTED MONDAY. IN THE VERY LONG RANGE A
WAVE MOVING OFF OF AFRICA NEXT MONDAY IS SHOWING SIGNS OF
DEVELOPMENT INTO A DEPRESSION IN THE GFS AND WILL MOVE TOWARD THE
LOCAL AREA LATE IN THE MONTH.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...SHWRS IN AND AROUND TJBQ...TJMZ...AND
POSSIBLY TJSJ MAY PRODUCE PERIODS OF MVFR OR EVEN IFR
CONDITIONS...AS WELL AS MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS...UNTIL AT LEAST 21Z.
LLVL WINDS WILL REMAIN MAINLY FROM THE E AT AROUND 5-15 KT.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS HAVE INCREASED SOMEWHAT...AND SMALL CRAFT WILL NEED
TO EXERCISE CAUTION IN THE OUTER WATERS WHERE SEAS MAY REACH 6
FEET. THE WAVE COMING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WILL
LEAVE HIGHER SEAS IN BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND THE CARIBBEAN.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 80 89 79 90 / 40 40 60 80
STT 79 89 79 89 / 50 50 70 80

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1008 PM AST TUE JUL 16 2013

.SYNOPSIS...SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURE
INTO NEXT WEEK. TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THU WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SUBSIDENCE WILL MOVE IN FOR WED WITH MAINLY FAIR WX
XCPT FOR AN AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM OUT WEST. LARGE TROPICAL WAVE
ALONG 50W WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THU. THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN
A LARGE ENVELOPE OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE. MODELS VERY AGGRESSIVE
WITH THIS WAVE IN TERMS OF RAINFALL MOISTURE. CURRENT INDICATIONS
ARE THAT THIS WAVE WILL PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL LIKELY
REQUIRING THE NEED FOR A FLASH FLOOD WATCH ESPECIALLY FOR THE ERN
THIRD OF PR. HOT SAHARAN AIR WILL MOVE IN ON FRI AND LAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR LIKELY ALL TAF SITES THRU TONITE XCP TNCM/TKPK WHERE
SCT SHRA ARRIVE ABOUT 06Z IN MOISTURE FM INCOMING TROPICAL WAVE AND
ARRVIVES TIST/TISX BY 12Z. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA OVR WESTERN PR
WED AFT WI SOME OBSCD MTNS. WIND THRU WED NITE TO FL150 E 17-27 KT.

&&

.MARINE...TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THU WITH SCT-
NMRS TSTMS. SEAS 4-6 FT AND WINDS 15-20 KT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 80 89 79 90 / 0 80 80 80
STT 79 89 79 89 / 10 90 90 80

[Macrocane]

After an anomalous dry weekend the pattern is evolving into a wet one again:

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
226 PM EDT TUE JUL 16 2013

DISCUSSION FROM JULY 16/00UTC: THE BAHAMAS WILL CONTINUE UNDER WET
PATTERN WHILE LARGE TUTT CONTINUES MEANDERING OVER THE REGION.
CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY IS INCREASING AND MOISTURE IS BEING
TRANSPORTED/BUILT BY ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. THIS WILL
PRODUCE A PROLONGED PERIOD WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECTING
AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-40MM THROUGH 60 HRS...WITH
HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD FOR LARGE AMOUNTS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS. SIMILAR ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS CUBA.

WET PATTERN WILL ALSO DOMINATE MUCH OF NORTHERN MEXICO. A STRONG
TUTT LOW OVER WEST TEXAS WILL RETROGRESS INTO SONORA/BAJA
CALIFORNIA NORTE THROUGH THE CYCLE ENHANCING CONVECTIVE
INSTABILITY AND VENTILATION. ON THE OTHER HAND...DEEP-LAYER
MOISTURE IS IN PLACE WHILE ADVECTED FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO BY
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS BELOW 600 HPA. WATER TEMPERATURES AT THE GULF
OF CALIFORNIA ARE ALSO WELL ABOVE NORMAL ALREADY RANGING FROM 28
TO 30C. ON DAY 01...EXPECTING ACCUMULATIONS OF 15-20MM/DAY AND
ISOLATED MAXIMA OF 25-50MM ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE
OCCIDENTAL...ESPECIALLY OVER SINALOA/SOUTHERN SONORA. ON DAY
02...EXPECTING SIMILAR AMOUNTS TO EXTEND INTO SONORA. REMNANTS
FROM INLAND CONVECTION WILL ALSO AFFECT COASTAL AREAS AND THE
SONORAN DESERT WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
15MM. INLAND ACROSS CHIHUAHUA/DURANGO/COAHUILA EXPECTING ALSO
SCATTERED CONVECTION WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA
OF 15-30MM. AMOUNTS WILL START TO DECREASE ON DAY 03.

VERY ACTIVE DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
CENTRAL/SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO AS TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE EASTERN
PACIFIC REMAINS IN PLACE...AND GOOD VENTILATION CONTINUES. BEST
LOW/MID LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE TO THE NORTH OF TROPICAL WAVE
ACROSS GUERRERO/MICHOACAN INTO JALISCO/NAYARIT ON DAY 01...MOVING
SLIGHTLY FURTHER INLAND INTO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OF MEXICO ON
DAYS 02 AND 03...AS LOW-LEVEL HIGH BUILDS OFF THE COASTS OF
GUERRERO. ON DAY 01...EXPECTING HEAVIEST OVER
JALISCO/COLIMA/NAYARIT WITH AMOUNTS OF 15-20MM AND ISOLATED MAXIMA
OF 25-50MM. ELSEWHERE EXPECTING DIURNAL CONVECTION TO PRODUCE
AMOUNTS OF 05-15MM/DAY WITH ISOLATED MAXIMA OF 20-35MM.

OVER CENTRAL AMERICA...QUIET PATTERN IS EVOLVING INTO A WETTER ONE
FROM EAST TO WEST ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL WAVES. FURTHERMORE...A
TUTT ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN INTO PANAMA/COSTA RICA IS
ENHANCING ACTIVITY OVER THE REGION...HELPING TO DRAW THE ITCZ
NORTHWARD ONCE AGAIN INTO THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN AND VENTILATING
DEEP CONVECTION IN INTERACTION WITH TROPICAL WAVE. IT SHOULD BE
KEPT IN MIND THAT MJO CONDITIONS ARE UPPER CONVERGENT...WHICH WILL
LIMIT COVERAGE OF DEEP CONVECTION CAUSING HEAVIEST RAINFALL TO BE
RATHER ISOLATED THAN WIDESPREAD. IN TERMS OF EVOLUTION AND
AMOUNTS...EXPECTING DEEP CONVECTION TO AFFECT COSTA RICA AND
PANAMA TODAY WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
20-35MM. ON DAY 02...TROPICAL WAVE WILL MAKE IT INTO
NICARAGUA/COSTA RICA LEADING TO A SHARP INCREASE IN ACCUMULATIONS.
OVER EASTERN CENTRAL AMERICA...EXPECTING ACCUMULATIONS OF
05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
AND PACIFIC BASIN EXPECTING ACCUMULATIONS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 20-40MM. THESE WILL EXTEND INTO THE GULF OF
FONSECA/SOUTHERN HONDURAS AND EL SALVADOR IN NOCTURNAL-EARLY
MORNING CONVECTION. ON DAY 03...TROPICAL WAVE WILL INTERACT WITH
TUTT ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO CHIAPAS. THIS WILL LEAD TO
ANOTHER ROUND OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS
YUCATAN-GUATEMALA-CHIAPAS-BELIZE-WESTERN HONDURAS AND NORTHERN EL
SALVADOR. EXPECTING ACCUMULATIONS TO INCREASE TO 10-15MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 20-30MM.

ACROSS NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA...CONVECTION WILL BE LARGELY
MODULATED BY TROPICAL WAVES. ON DAY 01...CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY
WILL REMAIN HIGH ACROSS NORTHERN COLOMBIA TO SUSTAIN DIURNAL
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF 10-15MM/DAY
AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. EAST OF THE ANDES EXPECTING STRONG
CONVECTION TO PRODUCE 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM. ACTIVE
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN VENEZUELA WITH
AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-20MM. ON DAY 02 EXPECTING
05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-30MM ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.
ACROSS THE CHOCO...EXPECTING 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM. ON
DAY 03...EXPECTING A DECREASE IN ACTIVITY ONCE AGAIN WITH
STRONGEST AFFECTING EXTREME NORTHWESTERN COLOMBIA INTO PANAMA WITH
AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-40MM. MOISTURE SURGE
BEHIND TROPICAL WAVE WILL INCREASE ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE
GUIANAS/EASTERN VENEZUELA TO AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
15-20MM.

CONVECTION ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN BASIN WILL BE MODULATED BY
TROPICAL WAVES. ALTHOUGH A NARROW WAVE WILL CROSS PUERTO RICO
TODAY AND HISPANIOLA TOMORROW...ITS ENHANCEMENT IN CONVECTION WILL
BE LIMITED BY STRONG INVERSION ALOFT. STRONGER AND BROADER WAVE
WILL MAKE IT ON DAY 02 TO THE LEEWARDS/PUERTO RICO...AND TO
HISPANIOLA ON DAY 03. THIS WAVE WILL HAVE A STRONGER IMPACT ON
CONVECTION PRODUCING ACCUMULATIONS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
20-40MM/DAY ACROSS PUERTO RICO ON DAY 02...AND SIMILAR
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER HISPANIOLA ON DAY 03.

TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12UTC

INITIAL 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 TYPE
50W 55W 59W 62W 67W 72W 76W 80W TW
62W 67W 71W 75W 78W 82W 86W 90W TW
74W 77W 81W 84W 88W 91W 94W 97W TW
105W 107W 109W 111W 113W 115W TW

TROPICAL WAVE AT 50W WILL TRANSPORT DEEP-LAYER CONVECTIVE
INSTABILITY INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN ENHANCING CONVECTION
AS IT MOVES BY. WAVE WILL ENHANCE ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE FRENCH
ANTILLES AND THE LEEWARDS BY 36-66 HRS...PUERTO RICO/USVI BY 54-78
HRS...AND OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BY 66-96 HRS.

TROPICAL WAVE AT 62W IS NARROW BUT ELONGATED. THIS WAVE WILL HAVE
A STRONGER IMPACT IN SOUTHAMERICAN CONVECTION...SINCE A RATHER
STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IS DOMINATING THE CARIBBEAN BASIN. THE
WAVE WILL RAPIDLY CROSS PUERTO RICO THIS EVENING AND THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC INTO EARLY HOURS OF WEDNESDAY. OVER SOUTH AMERICA...WAVE
WILL ENHANCE DIURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHERN VENEZUELA ON DAY
01...MOST OF COLOMBIA ON DAY 02 AND WESTERN COLOMBIA/PANAMA ON DAY
03.

TROPICAL WAVE AT 74W WILL AMPLIFY ONCE AGAIN WHEN EXITING SOUTH
AMERICA. THE WAVE WILL ENHANCE ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS CENTRAL
AMERICA ON DAY 02...AND OVER GUATEMALA/BELIZE/YUCATAN/SOUTHEASTERN
MEXICO ON DAY 03...WHERE IT WILL INTERACT WITH TUTT OVER THE GULF
OF MEXICO.

TROPICAL WAVE AT 105W...REMNANT OF WHAT WAS ONCE TROPICAL STORM
CHANTAL...IS RAPIDLY EXITING THE FORECAST DOMAIN WHILE STILL
ENHANCING TROPICAL MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO WESTERN MEXICO.

MCKENZIE...BDM (BAHAMAS)
ROBINSON...MSJ (JAMAICA)
GALVEZ...WPC (USA)

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Tropical Wave arrives tonight bringing plenty of rain to the PR and adjacent islands area.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
420 AM AST WED JUL 17 2013

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE WEST..AND AWAY FROM THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
NEXT TROPICAL WAVE EXPECTED TO REACH PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. MID TO
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED SHOWERS
WERE NOTED ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA EARLY THIS MORNING AND OVERNIGHT.
THESE SHOWERS WITH A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE ASSOCIATED
WITH A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS FEATURE
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST...AND AWAY FORM THE LOCAL ISLANDS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

A GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY STABLE WEATHER PATTERN WILL PREVAIL
TODAY...AS SUBSIDENCE AHEAD OF NEXT TROPICAL WAVE MOVES IN FROM
THE EAST. HOWEVER...AFTERNOON SHOWERS WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
CANT BE RULED OUT ACROSS THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL. TROPICAL WAVE
NEAR 54W WILL MOVE OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...RESULTING IN A BETTER
CHANCE FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO BE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS WAVE IN TERMS OF RAINFALL
MOISTURE. THEREFORE...STILL EXPECT PERIODS OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS EASTERN PUERTO RICO LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING...SPREADING ACROSS WESTERN PUERTO RICO BY MIDDAY.

WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY IMPROVE LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE EAST.
ALTHOUGH FOR THE WEEKEND...A FEW SPRINKLES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
ACROSS EASTERN PUERTO RICO/USVI EACH MORNING...FOLLOWED BY ONE OR
TWO SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN PUERTO RICO EACH AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO INDICATE A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA NEXT
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS GENERALLY EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL TAF SITES
TODAY. MOISTURE FROM THE EAST WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE PASSING SHRA
ACTIVITY FOR TKPK/TNCM AFTER 17/08Z...MOVING IN TOWARDS TISX/TIST
AFTER 17/13Z. SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN AFTER
17/16Z...POSSIBLY AFFECTING TJMZ/TJBQ AND THE VCNTY OF TJPS/TJSJ...
MTN OBSCURATIONS EXPECTED. EASTERLY WIND AFTER 17/13Z AT 10-20 KTS
GUSTING TO 25KTS OR HIGHER. TROPICAL WAVE WILL CAUSE INCREASE IN
SHRA/TSRA TONIGHT AS IS APPROACHES FROM THE EAST.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 6 FEET AND WINDS 21 KNOTS OR LESS. TROPICAL
WAVE ALONG 54W WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
LOCAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. SQUALLY WEATHER
POSSIBLE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 79 89 79 / 80 80 80 30
STT 89 79 89 80 / 90 90 80 30

[cycloneye]

Tropical Wave will bring numerous showers to the PR VI area starting tonight going thru Thursday.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
255 PM AST WED JUL 17 2013

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES ACROSS THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC AND THE CARIBBEAN WHILE WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS
FOUND BETWEEN 20 TO 30 NORTH. LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA
DEEPENS NORTH OF THE AREA BEGINNING EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ENTRENCHED BETWEEN 20 AND 30
NORTH UNTIL IT CONSOLIDATES IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC DURING THE
WEEKEND. THIS HIGH BUILDS SOUTHWEST INTO THE BAHAMA ISLANDS MID
WEEK NEXT WEEK AND THEN SHIFTS NORTHWEST. LOW PRESSURE IN THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 35 WEST MOVES ACROSS THE ATLANTIC AND
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA NEXT WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

AT LOWER LEVELS...A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED NEAR 59 WEST IS MOVING
INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH MOISTURE AND INCREASING CONVECTION BOTH
AHEAD AND BEHIND IT. DRYING WILL COMMENCE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY WITH SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE OVER THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER WAVE
WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH
SOME MOISTURE RETURNING AROUND THE MID LEVEL HIGH TO DAMPEN THE
AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CONVECTION JUMPED UP AFTER 1 PM AST AS MOISTURE
INCREASES IN THE AREA AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALLOWED GOOD SURFACE
HEATING. A FEW CELL TOPS WERE NOTED BETWEEN 50-55 KFT. ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATER TONIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA BY TOMORROW MORNING AND
CONTINUING ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY DUE TO THE
TROPICAL WAVE. DRYING BEHIND THE TROPICAL WAVE AND SAHARAN AIR WILL
REDUCE THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FRIDAY AND MORE SO ON
SATURDAY...BUT AN APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE WILL INCREASE THE
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE REST
OF THE WEEK APPEARS TO HAVE JUST REGULAR SUMMERTIME ACTIVITY IN
TYPICAL EASTERLY FLOW.


&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDS GENERALLY EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL TAF SITES
TODAY. SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN PORTION OF PUERTO
RICO FROM 17/18Z UNTIL 17/21Z...AFFECTING TJMZ/TJBQ...MTN
OBSCURATIONS EXPECTED. MOISTURE FROM THE EAST WILL CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY INCREASE AS A TROPICAL WAVE ARRIVES THE LOCAL REGION
TONIGHT. PASSING SHRA ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST TERMINALS AS
THIS WAVE MOVES THROUGH OVERNIGHT. LLVL WINDS E 15 TO 30 KT FROM 1
TO 20 KFT...STRONGEST BTWN 4-12 KFT.


&&

.MARINE...A TROPICAL WAVE WILL BRING INCREASED WINDS...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN WATERS TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 7 FEET EXCEPT PERHAPS
IN BRIEF AND ISOLATED AREAS OF THE OUTER WATERS. IMPROVING
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT ANOTHER WAVE
WILL BRING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY...AND TO A
LESSER EXTENT OVER THE LAST WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 89 79 92 / 80 80 30 10
STT 80 89 80 91 / 90 80 30 10

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
728 PM AST WED JUL 17 2013

.UPDATE...INCREASED PROBABILITY OF RAINFALL FOR EARLIER ARRIVAL OF
NUMEROUS SHOWERS TONIGHT AND RAISED MOST RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED.
FLOOD WATCH WILL BE LARGELY OROGRAPHICALLY INDUCED AT EASTERN
PUERTO RICO BUT CONTINUED MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IN SAN JUAN METRO
WILL EASILY CAUSE WIDESPREAD URBAN FLOODING ON THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...HIGH THETA-E VALUES HAVE ALREADY ARRIVED IN SAN JUAN
FORECAST AREA WITH 341K INTEGRATED THROUGH 1000-700 MB. GFS SHOWS
700 MB TROUGH AXIS AT VIEQUES BY 06Z AND MOST NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO
FOLLOW. DEEPEST MOISTURE AND MOST NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE STILL EAST
OF LEEWARDS BUT ITS CURRENT SPEED OF 24 KNOTS IMPLIES THAT IT WILL
BE HERE BEFORE SUNRISE. UPPER JET TO BE INSIGNIFICANT HERE AND
EXPECT OROGRAPHICS TO PLAY A LARGER ROLE THAN USUAL...ESPECIALLY
ON SOUTHEAST COAST TO EL YUNQUE. LOCAL STUDY SHOWED THAT MODELS
UNDERFORECAST SOUTHEAST COAST A LITTLE MORE THAN OTHER AREAS AND
TRIED TO COMPENSATE SOMEWHAT.

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Tropical Wave is moving thru the area of PR today bringing numerous showers. Weather should improve tonight.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
505 AM AST THU JUL 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS THROUGH THE DAY...AS
TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. A DRIER
WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A TROPICAL WAVE WITH A LARGE NUMBER OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
THROUGH THE DAY. THEREFORE...CONTINUE TO EXPECT PERIODS OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL...GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING STRIKES
ACROSS EASTERN PUERTO RICO/USVI AS WELL AS THE SURROUNDING WATERS
DURING THE MORNING HOURS...SPREADING ACROSS WESTERN PUERTO RICO
BY MIDDAY. THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE THE CAPABILITY
OF PRODUCING 2 TO 3 INCHES...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS OF UP TO 5
INCHES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN PUERTO RICO AND
THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL. DUE TO HIGH MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS WAVE...AND LOT OF INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA...DECIDED
TO EXPAND THE WATCH TO CENTRAL AND WESTERN PUERTO RICO. WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY IMPROVE LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURE DURING
THE END OF THE WEEK AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS FEATURE WILL
COMBINE WITH A DRIER AIR MASS TO PRODUCE A GENERALLY FAIR AND
MAINLY STABLE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY
THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY. HOWEVER...A FEW SPRINKLES EMBEDDED IN
THE TRADES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN PUERTO RICO EACH
MORNING...FOLLOWED BY ONE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ACROSS
WESTERN PUERTO RICO EACH AFTERNOON. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
INDICATE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE ON MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE WILL CAUSE SHRA/TSRA TO
AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA TODAY. TEMPO MVFR CONDS ARE LIKELY AND
BRIEF IFR ARE POSSIBLE. WINDS GUSTING TO 25-30 KTS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH THIS SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY. WX CONDS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE
SLIGHTLY AFTER 18/16Z FOR TNCM/TKPK AND TIST/TIST...GRADUALLY
IMPROVING FOR THE PR TERMINALS BY 18/22Z AS THE TROPICAL WAVE
PASSES. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER 18/22Z.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE A BIT DURING
THE NEXT FEW DAYS...HOWEVER STILL EXPECT SEAS AND WINDS BELOW
SCA CRITERIA. MAJOR HAZARD CONTINUE TO BE THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH AFOREMENTIONED TROPICAL WAVE MOVING OVER THE
LOCAL WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 79 92 80 / 70 20 10 10
STT 89 80 91 82 / 70 30 10 10

[cycloneye]

Forecasts from some Caribbean Islands

http://www.antiguamet.com/

[cycloneye]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...RESENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1208 PM AST THU JUL 18 2013

PRZ001>013-VIZ001-002-182030-
SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-NORTHEAST-SOUTHEAST-EASTERN INTERIOR-
NORTH CENTRAL-CENTRAL INTERIOR-PONCE AND VICINITY-NORTHWEST-
WESTERN INTERIOR-MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY-SOUTHWEST-CULEBRA-VIEQUES-
ST. THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS-ST CROIX-
1208 PM AST THU JUL 18 2013

...STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING...

DOPPLER RADAR DETECTED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME WITH VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL...STRONG GUSTY WINDS...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING MOVING
ACROSS PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA AND VIEQUES. THESE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST UNTIL AT LEAST 4
PM AST.

INTENSE LIGHTNING IS REPORTED WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...STAY
AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. MOVE INDOORS IF
POSSIBLE. WHEN INDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID
USING TELEPHONES UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY
ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES BEFORE THE THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

[abajan]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...RESENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1208 PM AST THU JUL 18 2013

PRZ001>013-VIZ001-002-182030-
SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-NORTHEAST-SOUTHEAST-EASTERN INTERIOR-
NORTH CENTRAL-CENTRAL INTERIOR-PONCE AND VICINITY-NORTHWEST-
WESTERN INTERIOR-MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY-SOUTHWEST-CULEBRA-VIEQUES-
ST. THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS-ST CROIX-
1208 PM AST THU JUL 18 2013

...STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING...

DOPPLER RADAR DETECTED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME WITH VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL...STRONG GUSTY WINDS...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING MOVING
ACROSS PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA AND VIEQUES. THESE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST UNTIL AT LEAST 4
PM AST.

INTENSE LIGHTNING IS REPORTED WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...STAY
AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. MOVE INDOORS IF
POSSIBLE. WHEN INDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID
USING TELEPHONES UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY
ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES BEFORE THE THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

Yeah, I noticed all the activity over Puerto Rico in the water vapor satellite loops. Stay safe, man!

[cycloneye]

I lost power for 2 hours. I can tell you is like hell here with massive traffic jams,mudslides,flooding everywhere,powr outages etc. And this is only a Tropical Wave.The International Airport of San Juan has been temporary closed as the international and domestic flights are not departing or landing at Isla Verde but are going to Ramey in Aguadilla waiting for the green light to fly to San Juan. This wave has punch.

Here are some images.

[gatorcane]

wow cycloneye. Impressive pictures. Stay safe!

[HURAKAN]

https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?v=10151721335463817



A friend from Puerto Rico shared this video and pictures on facebook, incredible flooding.

[abajan]

Pretty serious flooding, cycloneye! Anyway, thankfully, the convection is waning as the sun's heat is taken out of the equation and evening approaches. Hopefully, there won't be much additional rain tonight. Lots of mopping up tomorrow for sure!

[cycloneye]

The NWS of San Juan just informed that a historic record rainfall of 8.43 inches fell before 5 PM EDT. This ranks as the third biggest total for one day in San Juan.

[cycloneye]

The NWS of San Juan just informed more rainfall than the 8.43 inches originally reported and the new rainfall total is a historic record rainfall of 9.11 inches that fell before 5 PM EDT. This ranks as the second biggest total for one day in San Juan,more than when Hurricane Hugo moved thru.

[cycloneye]

Code: Select all

...THE SAN JUAN/P.R. CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR JULY 18 2013...
VALID TODAY AS OF 0500 PM LOCAL TIME.

CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1981 TO 2010
CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 1898 TO 2013


WEATHER ITEM   OBSERVED TIME   RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST
                VALUE   (LST)  VALUE       VALUE  FROM      YEAR
                                                  NORMAL
..................................................................
TEMPERATURE (F)
 TODAY
  MAXIMUM         82    857 AM  91    2005  89     -7       88
                                      2002
                                      1981
  MINIMUM         74    250 PM  70    1960  78     -4       77
  AVERAGE         78                        83     -5       83

PRECIPITATION (IN)
  TODAY            9.11R         2.17 1969   0.18   8.93     0.25
  MONTH TO DATE   12.31                      2.97   9.34     3.24
  SINCE JUN 1     23.60                      7.38  16.22     3.40
  SINCE JAN 1     48.13                     26.06  22.07    28.95



[Gustywind]

Very impressive floodings Cycloneye !!! That's really incredible. Glad to see that you're ok
For a twave, it has punch and punch power!
For info, yesterday afternoon 5PM, big lightnings and tstorms felt near my car i when i was driving, so given these pics i can easily understand what PR endured today!
Hope that things will be ok quickly in PR

[Stephanie]

I'm glad that you are okay Luis. That is some pretty serious and dangerous flooding. Great pictures.