North / Northeastern GOM

[tropicwatch]

Actually it looks like it might over south Florida now.

http://www.wjhg.com/weather/interactiveradar

[jlauderdal]

Well there appears to be another ULL just sitting there SE of Miami and pressures at the surface are relatively high. I wonder how long it will hang out there and dump rain of South Florida.

through tomorrow then should dry out a bit...its been very wt in sofla for the last week

[rockyman]

The area of convection SW of Key West is getting my attention this morning. Shear, low level vorticity, low level convergence, and upper level divergence are all showing signs of improvement this morning.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

[northjaxpro]

The ULL currently over the MS coast is finally picking up forwrd motion and pulling off to the west. The farther west the ULL can get, conditions may get somewhat conducive for the SE GOM disturbance. We will have to wait and see how it plays out. The GOM has been so hostile with the shear lately. The disturbed area in the extreme SE GOM does look a bit intriguing early this afternoon as you pointed out rockyman.

[NDG]

There is definite a broad surface trough/low west of Naples by a couple of hundred miles or so but is currently elongated and broad. Latest shear map only shows 10-20 knots of shear over this area, if it stays offshore it will be something to watch over the next couple of days.

[northjaxpro]

There is definite a broad surface trough/low west of Naples by a couple of hundred miles or so but is currently elongated and broad. Latest shear map only shows 10-20 knots of shear over this area, if it stays offshore it will be something to watch over the next couple of days.

Yes, I concur. NDG, shear values are slowly decreasing across that region of the GOM. ULL finally is beginning to fill and move farther off away to the west to possibly help the envionment become more conducive.

[wxman57]

Surface pressures are quite high over the eastern Gulf (1019-1020mb), and shear is at least moderate. Convection is firing in the SE quadrant of the upper low, which is where you'd expect such activity. These storms should be moving inland into the northern Gulf coast tomorrow night and early on Saturday without any development. Development chances are not zero, but they're probably closer to zero than 5%.

[ronjon]

Starting to get a little interesting. Perhaps a MLC developing off the SW FL coast.

http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/satellite/displaySat.php?region=TPA&itype=vis&size=large&endDate=20100716&endTime=-1&duration=3

[tailgater]

This buoy has shown what is either a very sharp trough or weak circulation that has moved off to the west today.
Station 42003

This buoy south of SW pass has shown over a 2mb drop since yesterday.

Station 42001
850mb voricity continues to slowly increase

IF the ULL continues to move off west faster than disturbance we will have to watch over the weekend. A little strange this year, with this many retorgrading ULL's across the southern US .

[tailgater]

Is there anything going on in the Gulf it looks like convection has increased?
I'm away from my computer I had to drive to Pine Bluff Arkansas

[fwbbreeze]

visible satellite shots seem to indicate a broad turning near the surface off the SE coast of Louisiana.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html

also buoy and observation stations in that general show a wind shift off the Louisiana coast also.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/

[cycloneye]

10%.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI JUL 19 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHERN AND
NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE AREA AND A SURFACE TROUGH. SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE BEFORE IT MOVES INLAND OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST ON SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[wxman57]

I think that development chances are much closer to zero than to 10%. Way too much shear, and the upper low is inland.

[tolakram]

live loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... umframes=5

[BigB0882]

Where is this headed? It says Northern Gulf Coast but is that more Louisiana or more FL panhandle? I know the chances are low for formation, I am just wondering if we will be rained out this weekend.

[Bluefrog]

My thoughts too ... where along the north gulf will be most rain? I'm on Mississippi Coast.

[Bluefrog]

and furthermore ... I just noticed on my profile that I have been with storm2k just over 10 years .... since I was 34 .... ahhhhh

[wxman57]

Where is this headed? It says Northern Gulf Coast but is that more Louisiana or more FL panhandle? I know the chances are low for formation, I am just wondering if we will be rained out this weekend.

The squalls are moving northward and will move inland into SE Louisiana and southern MS/AL over the next 24 hrs. There is no surface low, just a trof axis.

[BigB0882]

Thank you. I may be just far enough to the West to miss out on the biggest areas of rain.

[wxman57]

Thank you. I may be just far enough to the West to miss out on the biggest areas of rain.

Yes, I think you will be a bit too far west. The upper low is nearly right over Baton Rouge now. Forecast is for it to begin moving slowly north and northeastward tomorrow. Heaviest rain should stay to your east.