Tropical Wave (Pouch 12L) E Atlantic - (Is Invest 98L)

[TheStormExpert]

Zero development on 12z ECMWF.

I wouldn't fully worry about what the ECMWF just yet.

[Riptide]

GFS is not backing down, strong start for the African wave.

[beoumont]

What is the definition of a "pouch" as I see referred to commonly on this forum? The only thing I visualize when I see that word is the belly of a female kangaroo.

[RL3AO]

What is the definition of a "pouch" as I see referred to commonly on this forum? The only thing I visualize when I see that word is the belly of a female kangaroo.

The Naval Postgraduate School (NPS) labels certain tropical waves as "pouches", which they track as part of their research program.

http://www.met.nps.edu/~mtmontgo/storms2013.html

[Riptide]

Approaching the Northern Leewards.

[Alyono]

looks like it gets sheared as it enters the Carib, but is still a decent TC until it his PR

[Riptide]

looks like it gets sheared as it enters the Carib, but is still a decent TC until it his PR

This is what happens to it after the model truncates into low resolution. Heading north into the carolinas as a weak TC.
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... ics_74.png

[RL3AO]

Alyono, any sign that those crushing easterlies are going to weaken some in the next week?

[gatorcane]

Some 18Z GFS images:

[HurricaneTracker2031]

I think its safe to say going to form


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[Blown Away]

18z GFS goes through NE Caribbean islands, recurves just east of SFL, skirts OB...
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... opics.html

[TheStormExpert]

18z GFS goes through NE Caribbean islands, recurves just east of SFL, skirts OB...
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... opics.html

I would say anything past the NE Caribbean is definitely 100% uncertain, even before the islands we don't know if it will even stand a chance with all the SAL, and somewhat unfavorable conditions still present.

[cycloneye]

Wave axis in green line.



https://twitter.com/tropicaltidbits

[Alyono]

Alyono, any sign that those crushing easterlies are going to weaken some in the next week?

Not sure... they wont weaken unless the SAL abates

[CYCLONE MIKE]

If one recalls it was the gfs showing a train of storms developing behind Chantal and had some people fooled into thinking the season was about to take off. And yes the gfs showed them on numerous runs. Will definitely believe it early next week when I see it. But its looks to be the only game in town for the rest of the month so discuss away.

[SFLcane]

I dont know the tropical atl is still fairly dry to me and to add to that sst's have really taken a dip. Bet says csu lowers numbers in next outlook. Although one could have fewer storms but lots of landfalls

[ninel conde]

I dont know the tropical atl is still fairly dry to me and to add to that sst's have really taken a dip. Bet says csu lowers numbers in next outlook. Although one could have fewer storms but lots of landfalls

the map you posted about the pattern change would argue against lots of landfalls.

[NDG]

I dont know the tropical atl is still fairly dry to me and to add to that sst's have really taken a dip. Bet says csu lowers numbers in next outlook. Although one could have fewer storms but lots of landfalls

The Atlantic's MDR is still warm enough and still above average over all.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

I wouldn't expect this wave to struggle much with SAL. A look at satellite imagery shows this thing already has a large moisture bubble, and the GFS expects that to continue as it tracks westward.



As far as forward speed, 15-20 mph is a good bet across much of the Central and East Atlantic. Not detrimental by any stretch of the imagination.

[cycloneye]

I wouldn't expect this wave to struggle much with SAL. A look at satellite imagery shows this thing already has a large moisture bubble, and the GFS expects that to continue as it tracks westward.

http://i.imgur.com/1c982HU.jpg

As far as forward speed, 15-20 mph is a good bet across much of the Central and East Atlantic. Not detrimental by any stretch of the imagination.

http://i.imgur.com/vijC4sc.gif

What about some cooler sst anomalies in parts of MDR? I agree with SFLcane about CSU going down in numbers as TSR did because of this.