Tropical Wave (Pouch 12L) E Atlantic - (Is Invest 98L)

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SFLcane
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Re: African "bear watch": E Atlantic development? (Pouch P12L)

#101 Postby SFLcane » Sat Jul 20, 2013 7:27 pm

NDG wrote:
SFLcane wrote:I dont know the tropical atl is still fairly dry to me and to add to that sst's have really taken a dip. Bet says csu lowers numbers in next outlook. Although one could have fewer storms but lots of landfalls


The Atlantic's MDR is still warm enough and still above average over all.


No doupt! waters always plenty warm this time of the year just about basin for tc. Was just noting the drop in sst's across the basin which i think will play a factor in reduction of storms come ASO. AGAIN does not mean we cant still have a high landfall year.
Last edited by SFLcane on Sat Jul 20, 2013 7:29 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Re:

#102 Postby NDG » Sat Jul 20, 2013 7:29 pm

cycloneye wrote:
TropicalAnalystwx13 wrote:I wouldn't expect this wave to struggle much with SAL. A look at satellite imagery shows this thing already has a large moisture bubble, and the GFS expects that to continue as it tracks westward.

http://i.imgur.com/1c982HU.jpg

As far as forward speed, 15-20 mph is a good bet across much of the Central and East Atlantic. Not detrimental by any stretch of the imagination.

http://i.imgur.com/vijC4sc.gif


What about some cooler sst anomalies in parts of MDR? I agree with SFLcane about CSU going down in numbers as TSR did because of this.

Image


This pix looks a bit over done, it seems to always be extreme.
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Re: African "bear watch": E Atlantic development? (Pouch P12L)

#103 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jul 20, 2013 7:30 pm

I can see this as Invest in a window as early as Sunday but no later than Monday.
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Re: African "bear watch": E Atlantic development? (Pouch P12L)

#104 Postby SFLcane » Sat Jul 20, 2013 7:32 pm

we'll be fine..

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#105 Postby NDG » Sat Jul 20, 2013 7:32 pm

NOAA site paints a total different picture across the MDR.

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Re: African "bear watch": E Atlantic development? (Pouch P12L)

#106 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jul 20, 2013 7:51 pm

Saved image. About to make the splash to the water.

Image
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#107 Postby TheStormExpert » Sat Jul 20, 2013 7:53 pm

I still wouldn't be suprised to see the GFS back off of the idea of developing this in the next few runs. After all its still only July 20th.
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#108 Postby 'CaneFreak » Sat Jul 20, 2013 8:05 pm

SST Anomalies have nothing to do with how many storms form folks. Get that out of your head. If the water is 79-80 degrees, TCs can form and develop. Too much emphasis is placed on SSTs these days.

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Re: African "bear watch": E Atlantic development? (Pouch P12L)

#109 Postby ouragans » Sat Jul 20, 2013 8:42 pm

cycloneye wrote:I can see this as Invest in a window as early as Sunday but no later than Monday.

agree with that. Invest by 22/0z
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#110 Postby gatorcane » Sat Jul 20, 2013 9:03 pm

Another look at the vigorous wave about ready to roll of Africa the GFS thinks will develop. Have to admit, it looks quite intense.

Bear watch in full effect! :D

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#111 Postby gatorcane » Sat Jul 20, 2013 9:13 pm

18Z Navy model has come on board with something, but is a bit slower on developing a low (not even sure if it is the same wave as what the GFS is developing):

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#112 Postby Alyono » Sat Jul 20, 2013 9:45 pm

SAL affects a system from the EAST. I am not even concerned with what is currently over the Atlantic
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#113 Postby TheStormExpert » Sat Jul 20, 2013 9:58 pm

Current Saharan Air Layer (SAL) :darrow:
I've seen worse, but I've also seen much better.

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#114 Postby TheStormExpert » Sat Jul 20, 2013 10:03 pm

Current WV still image :darrow:
Makes the dry air not look as bad as the image I posted above.

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Re: African "bear watch": E Atlantic development? (Pouch P12L)

#115 Postby SFLcane » Sat Jul 20, 2013 10:15 pm

http://www.sat24.com/wa?ir=true
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Re: African "bear watch": E Atlantic development? (Pouch P12L)

#116 Postby SFLcane » Sat Jul 20, 2013 10:24 pm

Image

Image
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#117 Postby Hurricaneman » Sat Jul 20, 2013 10:33 pm

The lesser antilles would be first in line if this should develop, but after that is really anyones guess, if the ridge returns north of the islands Florida to the Carolinas need to monitor this in case the ridge erodes near the coast the NEUS could also get hit but these features can and probably will change so we may not know the intensity nor the path until next friday

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Re: African "bear watch": E Atlantic development? (Pouch P12L)

#118 Postby SFLcane » Sat Jul 20, 2013 10:33 pm

00z GFS rolling soon

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#119 Postby gatorcane » Sat Jul 20, 2013 10:46 pm

Well 00Z GFS is out to 48 hours and the low is already defined and showing up so it appears yet another run the GFS will develop this wave:

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#120 Postby Hurricaneman » Sat Jul 20, 2013 10:49 pm

This could end up where either the GFS is right and this could be a danger next week or it could be completely wrong while most of the other models have nothing or very little

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