2013 EPAC Season

#81 Postby **Kingarabian** » Sun Jul 21, 2013 2:35 pm

GFS going nuts. It's super long range though.

#82 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Sun Jul 21, 2013 3:32 pm

Kingarabian wrote:

GFS going nuts. It's super long range though.

It had MJO going into the EPAC from the ATL AFAIK which is not realistic.

#83 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Sun Jul 21, 2013 6:54 pm

1. Surface trough approximately 175 miles southeast of Hilo Hawaii. Towering cumulus and isolated thunderstorms have been noted along the trough as it moves slowly westward. There is a low chance, near 0 percent, of this system becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours.

#84 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Thu Jul 25, 2013 8:46 pm

Gil is suppose to follow the path of Flossie. Interesting.

#85 Postby **Kingarabian** » Thu Jul 25, 2013 9:17 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:

Gil is suppose to follow the path of Flossie. Interesting.

I want a massive Cat. 5 Hurricane fish. I'm getting bored with all these low quality storms. This year so far, the quality has been bad compared to the past two years.

#86 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Thu Jul 25, 2013 9:56 pm

Kingarabian wrote:
Yellow Evan wrote:

Gil is suppose to follow the path of Flossie. Interesting.

I want a massive Cat. 5 Hurricane fish. I'm getting bored with all these low quality storms. This year so far, the quality has been bad compared to the past two years.

Yeah, I need a major and the past two years have been better. Only storm good so far was Barbara.

#87 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Mon Jul 29, 2013 9:23 am

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED ABOUT 1000 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS COULD FAVOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS IT MOVES TO THE WEST AT ABOUT 10 MPH. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

Here we go again

#88 Postby **Kingarabian** » Mon Jul 29, 2013 5:40 pm

GFS has Gil within 48 hours.

GFS has Gil, Henriette, and Ivo all in the next two weeks.

#89 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Mon Jul 29, 2013 6:47 pm

Kingarabian wrote:GFS has Gil within 48 hours.

GFS has Gil, Henriette, and Ivo all in the next two weeks.

Doubt all three will form.

#90 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Mon Jul 29, 2013 6:48 pm

1. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 900 MILES SOUTH OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENNISULA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE
DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 MPH.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

#91 Postby **gatorcane** » Tue Jul 30, 2013 2:54 pm

EPAC is on fire right now. Two systems are brewing there, one if which the NHC forecasts to become a hurricane.

Hurricaneman · #92 Postby **Hurricaneman** » Tue Jul 30, 2013 3:39 pm

The fact that the GFS nailed the pattern from over a week out is amazing, even when everyone doubted it

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#93 Postby **Ntxw** » Tue Jul 30, 2013 3:48 pm

Both look good

#94 Postby **cycloneye** » Tue Jul 30, 2013 4:06 pm

The 2013 EPAC season is rolling over the Atlantic in the ACE around 30 units vs around 6 units and in numbers 6/4/0 vs 4/0/0.

#95 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Wed Jul 31, 2013 12:00 pm

cycloneye wrote:The 2013 EPAC season is rolling over the Atlantic in the ACE around 30 units vs around 6 units and in numbers 6/4/0 vs 4/0/0.

The EPAC is usually ahead of the ATL ACE-wise at this time of year, so it is no major shock. Until early September, the EPAC ACE was ahead of the ATL last year IIRC.

#96 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Thu Aug 01, 2013 7:09 pm

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS DEVELOPED ABOUT 1400 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 TO 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...
10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

#97 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu Aug 01, 2013 8:32 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS DEVELOPED ABOUT 1400 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 TO 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...
10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

Is 91E.

#98 Postby **Kingarabian** » Thu Aug 01, 2013 8:56 pm

Are we in an El-Nino? Lol.

#99 Postby **Ntxw** » Thu Aug 01, 2013 8:59 pm

Mind boggling at the pace these EPAC storms are popping up. To be fair, as Yellow Evan said it's typical and the ACE is still well below average. But this basin still is providing the most excitement consistently of late!

#100 Postby **Kingarabian** » Thu Aug 01, 2013 9:01 pm

Ntxw wrote:Mind boggling at the pace these EPAC storms are popping up. To be fair, as Yellow Evan said it's typical and the ACE is still well below average. But this basin still is providing the most excitement consistently of late!

Did the GFS prove everybody wrong in it's prediction of the MJO? Or is this completely un-MJO related?

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