2013 WPAC Season

[gatorcane]

Models becoming more keen on developing the upper level low west of Wake, current set up suggests a strong ridge will push it west. ECMWF 00Z bring a strong tropical storm into Taiwan, CMC blows it up into a strong system (as it does with most systems,) UKMET developing it too and looks like GFS is last one to join the party and starting to get a handle on it.

Could well be our next named storm next week.

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Guess the CMC wasn't too far off on intensity looking back on this?

[dexterlabio]

Canadian beat GFS this time. I mean the CMC nailed it, both track and intensity forecasts. Euro got this one too with the track closer to Taiwan, but their initial runs on Soulik had its intensity at TS strength only...so all props to CMC.

I also noticed GFS tend to "overestimate" the weakness caused by the troughs and "underestimate" the strength of the steering ridge..it happened with Bebinca, Rumbia, and this one...

[euro6208]

oh boy. looks like an active phrase for the next 2 weeks if this were to verify...

[Typhoon Hunter]

oh boy. looks like an active phrase for the next 2 weeks if this were to verify...

Looks like climatology to me, there's always a moderate chance of tropical cyclone genesis in the 2nd half of July!

Medium range models not showing much significant, Cimaron and TD in SCS aside since they're weak and disorganised.

[dexterlabio]

The only one showing something after Cimaron and the TD is CMC.....well, I don't know... It was good with Haitang and Cimaron though. Few GFS ensembles show it too.


It still feels strange that it's mid-July and we only had 1 official (but a Category 4) typhoon so far.

[mrbagyo]

nice burst of convection near pohnpei, will it be the next invest???


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[Typhoon Hunter]

It will be interesting to see what bearing this will have in Wpac if it verifies over the upcoming peak months.



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[mrbagyo]

CMC is hinting a development of a pretty strong system east of the Philippines in the coming days...
still nothing from the other models... let's see if CMC's model will verify...



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[euro6208]

the potential for cyclogenesis remains moderate for the next 2 weeks...

[Typhoon Hunter]

UKMET also developing that CMC system too but nothing from the other models. Indeed GFS for days now has shown absolutely nothing, and let's not talk about ECMWF As we know CMC tends to overdo everything however it was spot on the mark with Soulik so I'll be keeping half an eye on it.

I should add HKO's own weather model develops a circulation east of Philippines in same region as CMC as UKMET. If anything's to form this seems to be the region to watch over the weekend.



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[mrbagyo]

I think the next significant Invest will pop up from the tropical wave located south of Palau in 1-2 days.
I wonder where it will go if it ever develops, looks like the STR doesn't want to move from its location


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We're still above average in TC formation, but the intensity of our TC's this year is somewhat uncharacteristic of a typical WPAC season.

This year = 8
Average = 7.4

[Typhoon Hunter]

Yup, Wpac ACE well below average right now. Anyway, the Palau system has been tagged Invest 91W, I started a thread on it. GFS on board with development now, let the blob watching begin!

[mrbagyo]

this is still 10 days away but the most conservative model, ECMWF is now showing a possible development.



compared to GFS in the same time frame.



maybe this will provide some needed ACE.

[Typhoon Hunter]

In line with GFS there indeed. GFS has been showing a major typhoon forming in the 5-10 days for a few runs now, worth keeping an eye on. Things heating up!

[euro6208]

Wow! now I can sense how slow our season is over here. EPAC at 8 storms and WPAC only at 9 ACE is closing in too . We should be ahead of any basin right now.

[RL3AO]

Anyone have any ideas on the meteorological reasons for the West Pacific's apparent struggle to form anything east of 130E (Soulik the exception)? It seems like moisture is there, shear is fine, obviously SSTs aren't a problem in the WPac. Is it lack of disturbances? Vertical motion problems?

[xtyphooncyclonex]

EARLY AUGUST PERSONAL FORECAST:

23 - Tropical Storms
11 - Typhoons
3 - Super Typhoons

STORM TRACK FOR :
Mangkhut - Coron, Palawan as a tropical depression then moves northwest as it intensifies into a tropical storm. Continues moving northwest before it intensifies to a 50-kt severe tropical storm before nearing Hainan, China. May intensify as a mild typhoon as it passes through the Gulf of Tonkin. Makes landfall near Halong Bay.

[mrbagyo]

Anyone have any ideas on the meteorological reasons for the West Pacific's apparent struggle to form anything east of 130E (Soulik the exception)? It seems like moisture is there, shear is fine, obviously SSTs aren't a problem in the WPac. Is it lack of disturbances? Vertical motion problems?

maybe the easterlies is too strong?? i don't know... hahah this season is really weird

[Typhoon Hunter]

Wow! now I can sense how slow our season is over here. EPAC at 8 storms and WPAC only at 9 ACE is closing in too . We should be ahead of any basin right now.

Well the average for 5th August is 9.2 so the season is bang on in terms of named storms. However I think named storms is pretty pointless, ACE tells the true story and so far this season the Wpac has been dead. According to Ryan Maue's site year to date ACE should be 82 and we're currently sitting at 33 (I don't think that includes Jebi but that didn't add a huge amount to the total.)

Reminds me of the Atlantic last year. However our sole typhoon so far was pretty impressive!

[vrif]

More chances of TC's in the coming weeks.