5 PM advisory on Isabel=20.3n-47.8w WNW 300 11 kts

[cycloneye]

http://www.hwn.org/haft23us.htm

As expected the track has shifted further north. Islands are clear of any danger.

[cycloneye]

http://www.hwn.org/hadt43us.htm

Here is the discussion on why they had to go more north with the forecast track and discount NOGAPS AND GFS solutions.

[CocoaBill]

I suppose you are talking about the leeward and not the bahamas

[cycloneye]

Yes leewards.

[Josephine96]

Yes he means the Leewards...

I still say Florida-Carolinas' watch out

[Tommedic]

"THE
MID-LATITUDE FLOW OVER NORTH AMERICA IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY OVER
THE NEXT 5 DAYS WITH A LARGE RIDGE OFF THE U.S. WEST COAST AND A
DEEP TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. THE RESULTING PATTERN SHOULD
BUILD AND MAINTAIN A RIDGE ALONG AND EAST OF THE U.S. EAST
COAST...WHICH SHOULD ACT TO KEEP ISABEL MOVING IN A GENERAL
WESTWARD DIRECTION. BY DAY 5...THE STEERING FLOW IS FORECAST TO
WEAKEN AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHEAAST U.S.
AND ERODES THE RIDGE A LITTLE TO THE NORTHWEST OF ISABEL."

DO I read this correctly and does this indicate an increased SE Coast threat being suggested???????

Would appreciate response from some professionals..either wx or EM.

[JCT777]

Thanks for the update, Luis. I do believe you have dodged a very large bullet named Isabel.

[Josephine96]

Not a pro but it sounds like a SE Coast threat to me..

[cycloneye]

But 777 the EC may have to deal with it as the discussion says the pattern amplifies.

[The_Cycloman_PR]

I think the fat lady started to sing for all of us in the islands and PR. Give us a beautiful song my lady!!

I will make a basket of popcorn and will see her pass us by from the San Juan bay area. :popcorn:

I hope you guys on the Bahamas and Florida do well with Isabel and that it recurve more to the north getting away from you too!! Also hope that Bermuda people don't have to deal with it after a week from Fabian impact.

Congratulation for the people of the islands and PR, we are safe again!!

Cycloman.

[JCT777]

But 777 the EC may have to deal with it as the discussion says the pattern amplifies.

Very true Luis. I am just happy for you that you will not have to deal with a direct hit from a Category 4 hurricane. The Bahamas and the EC may have to deal with Isabel next week - so those residents must continue to monitor this situation.

[cycloneye]

Yes WE ARE SAFE cycloman and the rest of the northern islands as I stated from last night.

[wow]

Yes he means the Leewards...

I still say Florida-Carolinas' watch out

Agreed. This one isn't going into the GOM and the ridge is still strong. Southeast is the danger zone.