Tropical Wave (Pouch 12L) E Atlantic - (Is Invest 98L)

[NDG]

0z Euro comes on board with the GFS of weak development near the CV Islands. But it shows it to die out as it moves WNW after the CV Islands.

[NDG]

I still think that the track of the vorticity will depend if it can survive the dry environment on the middle of the Atlantic. The further north latitude it gains after the CV Islands the higher chances it has to die out.
It has to stay in a low latitude has the GFS has showing a couple of days ago for it to survive, IMO. But even the GFS has abandoned that idea.

[NDG]

I has a very nice moisture envelope.
For the moment you do not see the SAL moving into the vorticity near the African coast.

[Gustywind]

we were 12 hrs ahead in schedule. Yellow (10%) at 12z

when was the last time we had a Yellow that far east in the Atlantic?

Very interresting question there Ouragans! By the way , how was your night yesterday with the last twave crossing Guadeloupe with it toons of lightnings ?

[Gustywind]

8AM discussion.


A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EAST TROPICAL ATLC WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 18N20W TO 08N21W. IT IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A
MODERATE TO HIGH MOIST ENVIRONMENT AND ITS AXIS IS MOVING NEAR
10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 07N-
14N E OF 23W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 170 NM W OF
THE AXIS S OF 18N.

[Blown Away]

06z GFS...Weak low across the pond...Dissipates above PR...Conditions between 20-25N/60-80W have not been that favorable for what seems like a few seasons...
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... opics.html

[cycloneye]

If this area gets invest status we will have more tools to look at.We will see if they go ahead.

[wxman57]

If you go back to last week at this time, the GFS didn't move the developing disturbance off the west coast of Africa until this coming Friday or Saturday. That was true up through last Wed/Thu. It moved into the east Caribbean around the 2nd or 3rd of August. On Friday, the GFS began focusing on a different disturbance that moved offshore this past weekend. Completely different system.

You can go back to the 12th and note when the system was forecast to move offshore:

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/

[ninel conde]

06z GFS...Weak low across the pond...Dissipates above PR...Conditions between 20-25N/60-80W have not been that favorable for what seems like a few seasons...
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... opics.html

1013/1014 isnt much anyway. been a long time since the tropics were primed in the atlantic.

[Dean4Storms]

Could be that the models fail to see this developing much like they did with Chantal, lots of moisture with this wave.

[NDG]

If you go back to last week at this time, the GFS didn't move the developing disturbance off the west coast of Africa until this coming Friday or Saturday. That was true up through last Wed/Thu. It moved into the east Caribbean around the 2nd or 3rd of August. On Friday, the GFS began focusing on a different disturbance that moved offshore this past weekend. Completely different system.

You can go back to the 12th and note when the system was forecast to move offshore:

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/

This is old news, I brought this up "Saturday" morning on this thread
But good idea to bring this up again.

[Blown Away]

Do you think the GFS going back/forth with developing this low factors into the 10%?

[cycloneye]

Do you think the GFS going back/forth with developing this low factors into the 10%?

IMO,the ECMWF showing it at 00z was important.

[gatorcane]

Tropical cyclone formation probability has increase some for this pouch:

[hurricaneCW]

It's still a bit early to see these waves really develop so I'm skeptical, models don't blow this up which indicates that the environment is probably barely conducive kind of like with Chantal although I think this might have a slightly better environment than Chantal. Hopefully it doesn't jet at over 25 mph which ultimately killed her.

Another two weeks and I bet were going to see models much more bullish with development though anything and everything should be monitored even in July.

[cycloneye]

Here is a good loop of wave.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

I think the chances of this thing developing are pretty decent. The wave is already stronger than it should be because of the stronger-than-average Africa Easterly Jet created due to the temperature difference between the hot Sahara Desert and the cool Gulf of Guinea, and it's exiting into waters of approximately 27C. A nice upper-level anticyclone aloft should provide a favorable wind shear environment, and a large moisture bubble should help protect it from the dry air and SAL. In addition, a rapidly-moving convectively-coupled kelvin wave from the west should help generate thunderstorm activity as the wave tracks west and 10-15 mph.

I don't see this dying and moving more northerly like much of the models depict.

[CalmBeforeStorm]

I don't see this wave developing if at all until it reaches at least 45w. It's too low in latitude for one thing and SST's warm between 45w and 50w. It would be very, very unusual to see anything that far out in July

[Gustywind]

I think the chances of this thing developing are pretty decent. The wave is already stronger than it should be because of the stronger-than-average Africa Easterly Jet created due to the temperature difference between the hot Sahara Desert and the cool Gulf of Guinea, and it's exiting into waters of approximately 27C. A nice upper-level anticyclone aloft should provide a favorable wind shear environment, and a large moisture bubble should help protect it from the dry air and SAL. In addition, a rapidly-moving convectively-coupled kelvin wave from the west should help generate thunderstorm activity as the wave tracks west and 10-15 mph.

I don't see this dying and moving more northerly like much of the models depict.

Interresting analysis. So do you tkink that this twave could travel in the EC as a organized cyclonic feature? In that case which intensity? Any thoughts about that?

[cycloneye]

This is Invest 98L. Go to the 98L discussion thread to continue with the comments about this area.