ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[cycloneye]

This is likely too early to ask this, but what are the odds of an El Nino next year?

You said it "too early". We may have a better idea by November/December.

[cycloneye]

The ECMWF Eurosip July update is in Neutral ENSO for ASO.

[NDG]

Nice to finally see the ECMWF come on board with the rest of the dynamical models.

[Ntxw]

Nino 3.4 remains the same as last week at -0.4c

Latest Kelvin wave has shrunk the cold eastern pool some. We continue the seesaw between warmth and cool underneath the surface neither really dominating at the moment and has been doing so for months and months. Still as neutral as it can be below the surface

[Alyono]

:uarrow: Nice to finally see the ECMWF come on board with the rest of the dynamical models.

that's a multi-model ensemble, not the ECMWF. I suspect the ECMWF has most of the high bias ensemble members

[NDG]

Thanks for the reminder, I always get the EUROSIP and ECMWF's Seasonal F. confused.

[cycloneye]

The CPC update of 7/29/13 has a slightly warmup as it rose to -0.3C from the -0.4C that was for the past two weeks.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

[Ntxw]

Nothing really new to add to ENSO, SOI is pretty stable just below Nina territory and sub-surface still going back and forth. MJO is incoherent, neutral as ever still.

[Frank2]

As of last Friday CSU and TWC have lowered their Atlantic totals for this season, while the EPAC is busier than usual - almost sounds like a weak El Nino pattern of some kind, because despite an above-average number of Atlantic systems so far all were relatively weak...

Since I've not kept up with the El Nino updates was wondering if that's still ongoing or did it end last year?

Thanks

[tolakram]

As of last Friday CSU and TWC have lowered their Atlantic totals for this season, while the EPAC is busier than usual - almost sounds like a weak El Nino pattern of some kind, because despite an above-average number of Atlantic systems so far all were relatively weak...

Since I've not kept up with the El Nino updates was wondering if that's still ongoing or did it end last year?

Thanks

If anything we are leaning toward La Nina at the moment. We were neutral last year.

Current SST anomaly map: http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anoma ... 5.2013.gif

[cycloneye]

Climate Prediction Center 8/5/13 update

Cold Neutral continues in the equatorial Pacific with no signs of changing anytime soon.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

[Alyono]

that looks borderline la niñaish

[Ntxw]

We are in solid neutral (slightly favoring cold-neutral). The sub-surface does not support a Nina from either the cpc charts or buoy data, it's been going back and forth between warm and cold much of this year and overall has held steady at the surface within neutral values (cool favored). Nina's tend to start fast and would peak between now and November, we would need significant cold readings consistently (close to -1c) for a prolonged period of time for ONI to achieve weak Nina status which won't likely happen this year.

As of last Friday CSU and TWC have lowered their Atlantic totals for this season, while the EPAC is busier than usual - almost sounds like a weak El Nino pattern of some kind, because despite an above-average number of Atlantic systems so far all were relatively weak...

Since I've not kept up with the El Nino updates was wondering if that's still ongoing or did it end last year?

Thanks

The EPAC is a little misleading. If you take a look at the ACE count thread you will notice that it is well below normal for a normal season (less than 75% normal). The fact that the WPAC and Atlantic has been virtually quiet makes it 'seem' like the activity in the EPAC is above normal when it's typical peak for that basin, with ACE energy below normal.

[Frank2]

Thanks to all for that information (and sorry admin for my starting another El Nino topic - I didn't notice this thread)...

Frank

[cycloneye]

Thanks to all for that information (and sorry admin for my starting another El Nino topic - I didn't notice this thread)...

Frank

No problem Frank.

[Yellow Evan]

As of last Friday CSU and TWC have lowered their Atlantic totals for this season, while the EPAC is busier than usual - almost sounds like a weak El Nino pattern of some kind, because despite an above-average number of Atlantic systems so far all were relatively weak...

Since I've not kept up with the El Nino updates was wondering if that's still ongoing or did it end last year?

Thanks

All EPAC systems have been weak as well. Trust me, we are not in an El Nino.

[Ntxw]

The June/July MEI (multivariate enso index) came in with -0.469 which is almost similar to borderline very weak Nina conditions. While I don't believe it will hold that value or less but it's interesting nonetheless.

Another interesting conflicting event is in the North Pacific. It is abnormally warm, so warm in fact it's near record levels up there with the stronger El Nino's! However the South Pacific and ENSO regions are not sharing this warmth.

[HURRICANELONNY]

Sure looks more like a resurgence of La Nina to me. Funny most models said El Nino last year and it never happen. Suppose to stay neutral but looks like La Nina coming.

[Ntxw]

PDO has come in for July and cooled to a whopping -1.25! This is quite cold, which further enhances no El Nino and even warm neutral appears unlikely for the rest of this year.

[cycloneye]

The Climate Prediction Center update of 8/12/13 has no big changes to all the ENSO areas. Nino 3.4 is down to -0.3C from the -0.2C that was last week.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf