NHC:Big Change at 5pm

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Vortex
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NHC:Big Change at 5pm

#1 Postby Vortex » Tue Sep 09, 2003 3:53 pm

No longer are buying into the strong left consensus of most models but are shifting there attention on the ukmet and gfdl...In fact at 120H expected position is now 23.0/64w versus 21.0/63.5....That is a very significant change for NHC to adjust its positioning 120 miles furthur North and 30 miles furthur East than 11am. You won't see TPC make adjustments like that often in a 6 hour time frame. But for now the gfdl and ukmet are performing best so I can't argue with it.
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#2 Postby Rainband » Tue Sep 09, 2003 4:01 pm

That doesn't bode well for the SE US and the GOM :o But it's better news for the islands :wink:
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#3 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 09, 2003 4:01 pm

Vortex from last night the trend was for Isabel to not make the west turn as I pointed out and as today no turn west was noted they had to do that major shift north.
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#4 Postby wow » Tue Sep 09, 2003 4:05 pm

Rainband wrote:That doesn't bode well for the SE US and the GOM :o But it's better news for the islands :wink:


Until today, it seems most likely that she was either going to hit Florida or pass just south of Florida and go into the GOM. Today, Florida to NC is in danger.
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#5 Postby Steve H. » Tue Sep 09, 2003 4:08 pm

I think it does bode well for the US Rainband. Why would you say it does not?? If you look at the last 3 positions......1 N/3W; .1N/3W; 1.0N/3W!!! That last position is a big shift to the right! That being said, that could be reponding to an expected weakness in the ridge due to the weak shortwave in the mid-Atlantic. Maybe when this shortwave pulls out it will resume a further westward heading. If you stepped the 1N/3W motion of the last movement, you'd end up at 28N/79 W. Of course things don't work that way in the real world. I'm wondering now if she will be left or right of that. Cheers!!
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#6 Postby janswizard » Tue Sep 09, 2003 4:18 pm

Oh, heck. I'm at 27.28N 80.29W. So PLEASE don't say that!
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#7 Postby Agua » Tue Sep 09, 2003 4:41 pm

Yes, that is a remarkable step for NHC to just discard the models.
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Derek Ortt

#8 Postby Derek Ortt » Tue Sep 09, 2003 5:48 pm

This has absolutely no bearing on a USA landfall, none whatsoever.

In fact, that is such a weak shortwave that will be off of the EC, that it is basically insignificant. Also, for some strange reason, the models want to re-incarnite Henri and drag it up the EC as an intensifying system. I'll believe that when I see it
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