ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[NDG]

I think I finally see it on the Euro in the low resolution images under a ridge. I wish I had better resolution. It then recurves it out to sea. It seems to be the northern outlier now.

http://img689.imageshack.us/img689/6514/1wn.gif

The Euro is completely lost this season, IMO.
In last night's run it showed 98L to develope and or strengthen near Bermuda close to the 594+ dm ridge in the middle of the Atlantic.

[brunota2003]

:uarrow: Clearly closed off. Since it's had a decent amount of convection near or over the center all day it probably qualifies as a TD right now - though it's hard to read the speed on the wind barbs - some are 30 knots?

I see a bunch of 25 knots, and looks like one orange one east of the center that is 30 knots

[ozonepete]

Let's wait and see what could happens with this feature.

Yeah, hold on, gusty. At a point like this I always wait for the NHC to pull the trigger for TD or TS and then we'll get an official track. But based on all of the latest data I would say the northern islands should be watching very closely.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Convection is firing over the center. If trends continue, we should have a tropical depression shortly.

http://tropicaltidbits.com/satellite/images/eatl_ir.gif

[RL3AO]

Euro is too fast to have it east of Bermuda in four days.

[cycloneye]

Watching for renumber signal.

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/

[Blown Away]

SHEAR (KT) 10 9 8 2 2 3 10 9 12 12 12 12 17

00z intensity shows shear increase at 120 hours, does it continue trending up after 120 hours?????

[RL3AO]

They will probably wait until 5am, and pull the trigger if convection continues to increase. I'd expect 80 or 90% at 2am if trends continue.

[Aric Dunn]

They will probably wait until 5am, and pull the trigger if convection continues to increase. I'd expect 80 or 90% at 2am if trends continue.

right now only one little hot tower over the center but that could help get things going.. otherwise pretty minimal

[RL3AO]

One hot tower, but convection is increasing overall.

[Aric Dunn]

loop every 15 min

http://oiswww.eumetsat.org/IPPS/html/MS ... /index.htm

[cycloneye]

Another version of the ASCAT I posted earlier shows a few 30kt barbs and the circulation is closed.

[cycloneye]

00z guidance suite.

[abajan]

Video by Levi Cowan about 98L.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/blog/201 ... from-land/

Super link, cycloneye! Thanks

[Alyono]

it almost certainly is a TD now. It just has yet to be classified as such officially by NHC

[gatorcane]

it almost certainly is a TD now. It just has yet to be classified as such officially by NHC

Agreed time to get an advisory and a forecast track.

Levi's track and intensity forecast posted earlier looks about right to me.

Looking at the floater tonight, I do see more of a WNW movement:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... short.html

[gatorcane]

How about this ridge shown by the 18Z GFS? Look how wide and expansive it is across the northern subtropical Atlantic. Hard to get a fish with that kind of ridge. You can also see 98L approaching Puerto Rico there at 144 hours:

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Another version of the ASCAT I posted earlier shows a few 30kt barbs and the circulation is closed.

http://oi43.tinypic.com/28bwfn5.jpg

ASCAT has a historically low intensity bias. We'll have to see if the NHC decides to classify this as TD #4 or Tropical Storm Dorian...if they so (which I would hope they would!!).

[cycloneye]

Tweet by Levi Cowan.

Levi Cowan ‏@TropicalTidbits 29m
This is an obvious tropical depression. I don't see an excuse not to initiate advisories, except for its dim future.

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

18Z Ensemble Guidance


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